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China’s Xi to welcome Putin, Modi in grand show of solidarity
The summit will feature Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years as the two neighbours work on further defusing tensions roiled by deadly border clashes in 2020.
President Xi Jinping will gather more than 20 world leaders at a regional security forum in China next week in a powerful show of Global South solidarity in the age of Donald Trump while also helping sanctions-hit Russia pull off another diplomatic coup, Reuters reported.
Aside from Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaders from Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia have been invited to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, to be held in the northern port city of Tianjin from August 31 to September 1.
The summit will feature Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years as the two neighbours work on further defusing tensions roiled by deadly border clashes in 2020.
Modi last shared the same stage with Xi and Putin at last year’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, even as Western leaders turned their backs on the Russian leader amid the war in Ukraine. Russian embassy officials in New Delhi last week said Moscow hopes trilateral talks with China and India will take place soon.
“Xi will want to use the summit as an opportunity to showcase what a post-American-led international order begins to look like and that all White House efforts since January to counter China, Iran, Russia, and now India have not had the intended effect,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project, a research agency.
“Just look at how much BRICS has rattled (U.S. President) Donald Trump, which is precisely what these groups are designed to do.”
This year’s summit will be the largest since the SCO was founded in 2001, a Chinese foreign ministry official said last week, calling the bloc an “important force in building a new type of international relations”.
The security-focused bloc, which began as a group of six Eurasian nations, has expanded to 10 permanent members and 16 dialogue and observer countries in recent years. Its remit has also enlarged from security and counter-terrorism to economic and military cooperation, read the report.
Analysts say expansion is high on the agenda for many countries attending, but agree the bloc has not delivered substantial cooperation outcomes over the years and that China values the optics of Global South solidarity against the United States at a time of erratic policymaking and geopolitical flux.
“What is the precise vision that the SCO represents and its practical implementation are rather fuzzy. It is a platform that has increasing convening power, which helps in narrative projection,” said Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution thinktank in Bangalore.
“But the SCO’s effectiveness in addressing substantial security issues remains very limited.”
Frictions remain between core members India and Pakistan. The June SCO defence ministers’ meeting was unable to adopt a joint statement after India raised objections, saying it omitted reference to the deadly April 22 attack on Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir which led to the worst fighting in decades between India and Pakistan.
New Delhi also refused to join the SCO’s condemnation of Israeli attacks on Iran, a member state, earlier in June, Reuters reported.
But the recent detente between India and China after five years of heightened border frictions, as well as renewed tariff pressure on New Delhi from the Trump administration, are driving expectations for a positive meeting between Xi and Modi on the sidelines of the summit.
“It’s likely (New Delhi) will swallow their pride and put this year’s SCO problems behind them in a bid to maintain momentum in the détente with China, which is a key Modi priority right now,” said Olander.
India’s priorities at the SCO include trade, connectivity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, said Indian foreign ministry official Tanmaya Lal. Modi is also likely to hold bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit.
Analysts expect India and China to announce further incremental border measures such as troop withdrawals, the easing of trade and visa restrictions, cooperation in new fields including climate, and broader government and people-to-people engagement.
Despite the lack of substantive policy announcements expected at the summit, experts warn that the bloc’s appeal to Global South countries should not be underestimated.
“This summit is about optics, really powerful optics,” added Olander.
Modi is expected to depart from China after the summit, while Putin will stay on for a World War Two military parade in Beijing later in the week for an unusually long spell outside of Russia.
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Gas leak caused blast in Iran’s Bandar Abbas, Iranian media say
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
An explosion that hit a building in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Saturday was caused by a gas leak, according to a preliminary assessment, the local head of the fire department said.
Iranian state media reported that at least two people have been killed and 14 injured in the blast, which comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s crackdown earlier this month on nationwide protests and over the country’s nuclear programme.
“This (gas leak) is the preliminary assessment. My colleagues will give more details in the next few hours,” Mohammad Amin Liaqat, the fire department chief, said in a video published by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency.
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
Reuters was able to verify the location by analysing buildings, trees, and road layout, which matched satellite and file imagery. Reuters could not independently verify the date the video was filmed.
Separately, four people were killed after another gas explosion in the city of Ahvaz near the Iraqi border, according to state-run Tehran Times. No further information was immediately available.
The explosions highlighted the jittery mood prevailing in Iran amid its clerical rulers’ standoff with the Trump administration.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on January 22 an “armada” was heading toward Iran. Multiple sources said on Friday that Trump was weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces.
Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian security official, said on X on Saturday that work on a framework for negotiations with the United States was progressing, downplaying what he described as an “atmosphere created by artificial media warfare.”
Trump told Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich that Iran was “negotiating, so we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich wrote on X.
“You know, the last time they negotiated, we had to take out their nuclear, didn’t work, you know. Then we took it out a different way, and we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich quoted Trump as saying.
Before the reports of the two blasts on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused U.S., Israeli and European leaders of exploiting Iran’s economic problems, inciting unrest and providing people with the means to “tear the nation apart.”
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said social media reports alleging that a Revolutionary Guard navy commander had been targeted in the Bandar Abbas explosion were “completely false.”
Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel was not involved in Saturday’s blasts. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Bandar Abbas, home to Iran’s most important container port, lies on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway between Iran and Oman which handles about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.
The port suffered a major explosion last April that killed dozens and injured over 1,000 people. An investigative committee at the time blamed the blast on shortcomings in adherence to principles of civil defence and security.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide protests that erupted in December over economic hardship and have posed one of the toughest challenges to the country’s clerical rulers.
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has said at least 6,500 people were killed in the protests, including hundreds of security personnel.
Regional
Iran ready for ‘fair’ talks with US but not on defence capabilities
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
Iran is prepared for the resumption of talks with the United States, but they should be fair and not include Iran’s defence capabilities, Iran’s chief diplomat said on Friday, as regional powers work to prevent military conflict between the two foes, Reuters reported.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he planned to speak with Iran, even as the U.S. sent another warship to the Middle East and the Pentagon chief said the military would be ready to carry out whatever the president decided.
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
One of the main U.S. demands as a condition for resuming talks with Iran is curbing its missile programme, a senior Iranian official told Reuters last week. Iran rejects that demand.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul after talks with his Turkish counterpart, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready to participate in “fair and equitable” negotiations, but added there were currently no meetings with U.S. officials arranged.
“Iran has no problem with negotiations, but negotiations cannot take place under the shadow of threats. They must certainly set aside their threats and change their approach toward a fair and equitable negotiation, as Mr. Trump himself said in his post,” he said.
“I should also state unequivocally that Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities — and Iran’s missiles — will never be the subject of any negotiations,” he added.
“We will preserve and expand our defensive capabilities to whatever extent is necessary to defend the country,” Araqchi said.
Regional allies, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, read the report.
In response to U.S. threats of military action, Araqchi said Tehran was ready for either negotiations or warfare, and also ready to engage with regional countries to promote stability and peace.
Araqchi and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said they had been speaking to each other almost every day to discuss the tensions.
U.S. officials say Trump his options but has not decided whether to strike Iran.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters in its crackdown on the countrywide demonstrations over economic privations and political repression, but the protests have since abated.
Israel’s Ynet news website said on Friday that a U.S. Navy destroyer had docked at the Israeli port of Eilat.
NATO member Turkey shares a border with Iran and opposes any foreign intervention there. It has called for U.S.-Iran dialogue to avoid further destabilisation and has been in touch with both sides to seek a solution.
Earlier on Friday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in a call that Ankara was ready to play a “facilitator” role between the sides.
Speaking alongside Araqchi, Fidan said he had long discussions on the issue with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on Thursday and would keep lines open with Washington to avoid conflict and the isolation of Iran, Reuters reported.
Fidan said U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations must restart and would pave the way to lifting sanctions on Iran. “We call the parties to the negotiating table” to address the issues “one by one,” he said.
Regional
Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
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