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China’s Xi to welcome Putin, Modi in grand show of solidarity

The summit will feature Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years as the two neighbours work on further defusing tensions roiled by deadly border clashes in 2020.

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President Xi Jinping will gather more than 20 world leaders at a regional security forum in China next week in a powerful show of Global South solidarity in the age of Donald Trump while also helping sanctions-hit Russia pull off another diplomatic coup, Reuters reported.

Aside from Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaders from Central Asia, the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia have been invited to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, to be held in the northern port city of Tianjin from August 31 to September 1.

The summit will feature Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years as the two neighbours work on further defusing tensions roiled by deadly border clashes in 2020.

Modi last shared the same stage with Xi and Putin at last year’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, even as Western leaders turned their backs on the Russian leader amid the war in Ukraine. Russian embassy officials in New Delhi last week said Moscow hopes trilateral talks with China and India will take place soon.

“Xi will want to use the summit as an opportunity to showcase what a post-American-led international order begins to look like and that all White House efforts since January to counter China, Iran, Russia, and now India have not had the intended effect,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project, a research agency.

“Just look at how much BRICS has rattled (U.S. President) Donald Trump, which is precisely what these groups are designed to do.”

This year’s summit will be the largest since the SCO was founded in 2001, a Chinese foreign ministry official said last week, calling the bloc an “important force in building a new type of international relations”.

The security-focused bloc, which began as a group of six Eurasian nations, has expanded to 10 permanent members and 16 dialogue and observer countries in recent years. Its remit has also enlarged from security and counter-terrorism to economic and military cooperation, read the report.

Analysts say expansion is high on the agenda for many countries attending, but agree the bloc has not delivered substantial cooperation outcomes over the years and that China values the optics of Global South solidarity against the United States at a time of erratic policymaking and geopolitical flux.

“What is the precise vision that the SCO represents and its practical implementation are rather fuzzy. It is a platform that has increasing convening power, which helps in narrative projection,” said Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution thinktank in Bangalore.

“But the SCO’s effectiveness in addressing substantial security issues remains very limited.”

Frictions remain between core members India and Pakistan. The June SCO defence ministers’ meeting was unable to adopt a joint statement after India raised objections, saying it omitted reference to the deadly April 22 attack on Hindu tourists in Indian Kashmir which led to the worst fighting in decades between India and Pakistan.

New Delhi also refused to join the SCO’s condemnation of Israeli attacks on Iran, a member state, earlier in June, Reuters reported.

But the recent detente between India and China after five years of heightened border frictions, as well as renewed tariff pressure on New Delhi from the Trump administration, are driving expectations for a positive meeting between Xi and Modi on the sidelines of the summit.

“It’s likely (New Delhi) will swallow their pride and put this year’s SCO problems behind them in a bid to maintain momentum in the détente with China, which is a key Modi priority right now,” said Olander.

India’s priorities at the SCO include trade, connectivity, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, said Indian foreign ministry official Tanmaya Lal. Modi is also likely to hold bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit.

Analysts expect India and China to announce further incremental border measures such as troop withdrawals, the easing of trade and visa restrictions, cooperation in new fields including climate, and broader government and people-to-people engagement.

Despite the lack of substantive policy announcements expected at the summit, experts warn that the bloc’s appeal to Global South countries should not be underestimated.

“This summit is about optics, really powerful optics,” added Olander.

Modi is expected to depart from China after the summit, while Putin will stay on for a World War Two military parade in Beijing later in the week for an unusually long spell outside of Russia.

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Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says

Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran.

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Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington ​would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President ‌Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.

Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, ​told Reuters he had seen the data but provided ​no further details, Reuters reported.

Speaking in his presidential compound in Kyiv, Zelenskiy ⁠said that some Iranian drones, used to attack U.S. military ​assets and its allies during the war in the Middle East, ​contained Russian components.

“I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if ​America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” ​Zelenskiy said.

He did not say who, according to the reports, Russia was addressing ‌the ⁠comments to. Russia has denied assisting Iran in its month-old conflict with the United States and Israel – a denial that Washington said earlier this month that it had also received directly from ​Moscow when the issue ​was discussed.

Ukraine, ⁠which has faced sustained attacks by Iranian-designed Shahed drones since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, is ​helping several Gulf states – including Saudi Arabia, the United ​Arab ⁠Emirates, and Qatar – to counter drone attacks on their territory, the president said.

Zelenskiy said he hoped that Ukraine would be able to ⁠reach long-term ​deals with some Gulf countries that ​would raise funds for the production of Ukrainian drone interceptors or receiving much-needed air-defence ​missiles, read the report.

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Israel strikes Tehran as Trump says US negotiating to end war

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Israel struck the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday, Israeli military and Iranian media said, as President Donald Trump said the ​U.S. was making progress in its efforts to negotiate an end to the war, with reports of a 15-point plan sent to Tehran.

The Israeli Defense ‌Forces said in a Telegram post it had launched a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran. The semi-official Iranian SNN News Agency said the strikes hit a residential area in the city, with rescuers searching the rubble, Reuters reported.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday they had repelled fresh drone attacks, without stating where they originated. Drones targeted a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, ​causing a fire but no casualties, Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority said.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations ​in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, Iranian state media ⁠reported.

Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was in “negotiations” to end the war, which has already killed thousands and created the worst energy shock in history, leading ​to global fuel shortages and roiling markets.

Stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire and had sent a 15-point ​plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.

Trump told reporters at the White House the U.S. was talking to “the right people” in Iran to end hostilities, adding the Iranians wanted to reach a deal very badly.

Iran’s powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Monday dismissed such reports as “fake news.”

15 POINT PLAN SENT TO IRAN

The New ​York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East. Israel’s Channel 12, quoting three sources, ​said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.

A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but provided no ‌further details.

The ⁠Israeli media outlet said the plan would include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, ceasing support for proxy groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 after saying they had failed to make enough headway in talks aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear programme, although mediator Oman said significant progress had been made.

Since then, Iran has attacked countries that host U.S. bases, struck Gulf energy infrastructure and effectively closed the Strait ​of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of ​the world’s oil and liquefied natural ⁠gas.

Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.

The effective closure of the waterway, ​where 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, has created the worst energy supply shock in history, ​sent fuel prices soaring, ⁠and disrupted global aviation.

PAKKISTAN OFFERS TO HOLD US-IRAN TALKS

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the war, a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian power plants after what he called “productive” talks.

Pakistan has long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran’s Islamic Republic and has been building ⁠a relationship ​with Trump.

Despite reports of negotiations, the Pentagon is expected to send thousands of soldiers from the U.S. ​Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup.

The forces will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops ​already in the region and accelerate Washington’s massive U.S. military buildup there, fuelling fears of a longer conflict.

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US allies in Middle East ‘edging closer’ to joining conflict

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Key U.S. allies in the Middle East are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, as sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure intensify pressure on regional governments, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly weighing deeper coordination with the United States and Israel, following repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes that have disrupted their economies and threatened regional energy security.

While neither country has formally committed troops, recent developments suggest a shift toward more active participation. The report indicates that Gulf support is already enhancing U.S. operational capabilities, including facilitating airstrike logistics and potentially opening new avenues to target Iran’s financial networks.

Saudi Arabia signals shift in stance

Saudi Arabia appears to be reassessing its position as attacks on critical infrastructure continue. Riyadh has reportedly allowed U.S. forces access to the King Fahd Air Base, a move that could support expanded military operations.

Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned that the kingdom’s tolerance for Iranian attacks is limited. “Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation,” he said following recent strikes on energy facilities.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be considering stronger action to restore deterrence, with officials suggesting it may be only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia takes a more direct role in the conflict.

According to the WSJ report, one source said that “it is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war.”

UAE ramps up pressure on Tehran

The United Arab Emirates has also taken steps to increase pressure on Tehran, particularly through economic measures. Authorities in Dubai have shut down Iranian-linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, citing violations of national laws and alleged links to state-backed activities.

Officials warned that further action could include freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held within the UAE, a move that could significantly impact Iran’s already strained economy.

Long regarded as a key financial hub for Iranian businesses, the UAE’s shift signals a notable escalation in its stance, even as it continues to deliberate over potential military involvement.

Regional tensions and strategic stakes

The growing alignment among Gulf states follows a series of attacks on energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. Doha has condemned the strikes as a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to regional stability.

At the center of the war remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the strait continues to give it significant strategic leverage.

Risk of wider regional war

As the conflict approaches the one-month mark, Gulf states are maintaining close coordination with Washington over next steps. However, analysts warn that continued Iranian strikes could force regional powers into open confrontation.

With economic, security, and geopolitical stakes rising, the prospect of a broader regional war is becoming increasingly likely unless tensions are quickly contained through diplomatic efforts.

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