Climate Change
Explainer: How El Nino is helping drive heatwaves and extreme weather
Countries around the world from China to the United States are battling heatwaves, with the onset of the climate phenomenon El Nino helping push temperatures higher.
Scientists told Reuters that climate change and El Nino are the major drivers of extreme heat that have seen temperature records broken in Beijing and Rome, while leaving some 80 million Americans under excessive heat warnings.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon that in addition to contributing to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, also drives tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas, Asia and elsewhere.
In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.
Scientists have warned that this year looks particularly worrying. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures.
Experts are also concerned about what is going on in the ocean. An El Nino means that waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than usual. Globally, sea temperatures hit new records for the months of May and June, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. That could supercharge extreme weather, Reuters reported.
“We’re in unprecedented territory,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
This year’s El Nino could lead to global economic losses of $3 trillion, according to a study published last month in the journal Science, shrinking GDP as extreme weather decimates agricultural production, manufacturing, and helps spread disease.
Governments in vulnerable countries are taking note. Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with El Nino’s impacts and climate change, while the Philippines — at risk from cyclones — has formed a special government team to handle the predicted fallout.
WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern borne out of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.
It forms when the trade winds blowing east-to-west along the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse as air pressure changes, although scientists are not entirely sure what kicks off the cycle.
Because the trade winds affect the sun-warmed surface waters, a weakening causes these warm western Pacific waters to slosh back into the colder central and eastern Pacific basins.
During the 2015-16 El Nino — the strongest such event on record — anchovy stocks off the coast of Peru crashed amid this warm water incursion. And nearly a third of the corals on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef died. In too-warm waters corals will expel living algae, causing them to calcify and turn white.
This build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific also transfers heat high into the atmosphere through convection, generating thunderstorms.
“When El Nino moves that warm water, it moves where thunderstorms happen,” said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto. “That’s the first atmospheric domino to fall.”
HOW DOES EL NINO AFFECT THE WORLD’S WEATHER?
This shift in storm activity affects the current of fast-flowing air that moves weather around the world — called the subtropical jet stream — pushing its path southward and straightening it out into a flatter stream that delivers similar weather along the same latitudes.
“If you’re changing where the storm highway goes … you’re changing what kind of weather we would expect to see,” DiLiberto said.
During an El Nino, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, while parts of the U.S. West and Canada are warmer and drier.
Hurricane activity falters as the storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changes in the wind, sparing the United States. But tropical cyclones in the Pacific get a boost, with storms often spinning toward vulnerable islands.
Some parts of Central and South America experience heavy rainfall, although the Amazon rainforest tends to suffer from drier conditions.
And Australia endures extreme heat, drought and bushfires.
El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. El Nino brings more rain to the Horn, unlike the triple-dip La Nina, which desiccated the region.
Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months. La Nina, which takes hold when waters are cooler in the Eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.
IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING EL NINO?
How climate change might be affecting El Nino is “a very big research question,” said DiLiberto. While climate change is doubling down on the impacts from El Nino — layering heat on top of heat, or excess rainfall on top of excess rainfall — it’s less clear if climate change is influencing the phenomenon itself.
Scientists are not sure whether climate change will shift the balance between El Nino and La Nina, making one pattern more or less frequent. If ocean temperatures are rising across the board, it is unlikely the cycle would change, scientists said, as the basic mechanics behind the phenomenon stay the same.
However, if some parts of the ocean are warming faster than others, that could influence how El Nino plays out by amplifying temperature differences.
Climate Change
Afghanistan among world’s five most climate-vulnerable countries
Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.
Afghanistan ranks among the five countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite contributing little to global greenhouse gas emissions, the head of the country’s National Environmental Protection Agency has said.
Matiul Haq Khalis, Director General of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), made the remarks at a scientific conference in Kabul, saying Afghanistan could rank as the world’s third most climate-vulnerable country if comprehensive global research is conducted.
The conference, titled “Afghanistan’s Media and Climate Diplomacy: Opportunities and Challenges,” was organised at a private university and brought together government officials and media representatives to discuss the country’s climate challenges.
Khalis stressed that Afghanistan faces serious climate-related risks despite having a negligible role in producing global greenhouse gas emissions.
Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.
He called on media outlets to take a more active role in raising public awareness and informing communities about climate-related challenges.
Media representatives attending the conference also expressed their readiness to cooperate with government institutions in public awareness campaigns and efforts to address the consequences of climate change.
The discussions come ahead of an international climate conference scheduled to take place in Türkiye, where Afghan representatives have also been invited to participate and present the country’s views, with the aim of drawing greater international attention to Afghanistan’s climate challenges.
However, several international projects aimed at supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Afghanistan have currently been suspended, raising concerns about the country’s ability to respond effectively to growing environmental threats.
The conference highlighted the importance of stronger media engagement, international cooperation and continued support for Afghanistan as it faces increasing climate-related challenges.
These developments come as a climate change conference is set to be held in Turkey in one day’s time; representatives from Afghanistan have also been invited to participate, present their perspectives, and draw the international community’s attention to the country’s climate situation.
Climate Change
90 million displaced people at risk from climate threats, UN refugee agency says
In the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.
Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people are living in countries increasingly exposed to climate-related droughts, floods and extreme heat, the UN refugee agency said on Friday, warning ahead of the COP31 climate summit that more funding is needed to help vulnerable communities adapt.
Nearly three-quarters of the world’s forcibly displaced people are living in countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh that are exposed to severe climate-related risks, according to the report by the agency, known as UNHCR, published ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey. The findings show the overlap between conflict, displacement and climate change, the report said.
“Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival,” said Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR’s assistant high commissioner for operations.
“We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest,” he said.
The report highlighted the experience of a Sudanese refugee who fled conflict in al-Fashir in June 2023 to the Farchana refugee settlement in eastern Chad. The refugee said she sometimes goes a week without finding safe water and must walk increasingly long distances for alternative sources as nearby seasonal riverbeds dry up amid intensifying heat.
RETURNS AT RISK
It also warned that climate change is making it harder for displaced people to return home sustainably.
In the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.
In Syria, where nearly 4 million displaced people have recently returned, people face worsening water scarcity and erratic rainfall, while flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and displaced thousands of people, the report said.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, one in three refugee settlements could experience at least 100 days of dangerous heat each year by 2050, threatening health and livelihoods, the report said. In some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, dangerous heat could persist for more than 200 days a year, increasing the risks of heatstroke and premature death.
“Refugees often have limited access to cooling, water and reliable energy, making it harder to escape dangerous temperatures,” the report said.
UNHCR also warned that a forecast supersized El Niño could worsen climate-related risks in many refugee-hosting countries and trigger further displacement.
In East Africa, severe flooding could displace up to 3 million people in Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda by the end of this year, UNHCR said. In the Sahel, drought, flooding and conflict could intensify competition over scarce resources, while parts of Asia face heightened risks of droughts, floods and cyclones.
UNHCR called on governments and climate-finance institutions meeting at COP31 to increase funding for climate adaptation, highlighting that only about 10% of climate finance reaches fragile or conflict-affected countries.
On Wednesday, a separate UN report found rich countries were falling well short of the $305 billion needed each year to help developing nations adapt to climate change, even as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.
Climate Change
IEA to attend UN climate summit for second time since returning to power
The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.
Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate (IEA) is expected to send representatives to the COP31 United Nations climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, marking its second participation in the global climate conference process since returning to power in 2021.
According to the Associated Press, Rohullah Amin, head of climate change at the National Environmental Protection Agency, confirmed that Kabul plans to send a delegation. A Turkish official also confirmed that IEA representatives had been invited as observers.
The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.
Afghanistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing recurring droughts, water shortages, extreme temperatures and devastating floods. These challenges threaten agricultural production, livelihoods and food security, while contributing to internal displacement.
The planned participation comes amid continuing disagreements over Afghanistan’s international representation and access to climate financing, with the United Nations yet to recognize the IEA administration as the country’s official government.
COP31 is expected to provide another opportunity to highlight Afghanistan’s growing environmental challenges and its need for international climate support.
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