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Explainer: How El Nino is helping drive heatwaves and extreme weather

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Countries around the world from China to the United States are battling heatwaves, with the onset of the climate phenomenon El Nino helping push temperatures higher.

Scientists told Reuters that climate change and El Nino are the major drivers of extreme heat that have seen temperature records broken in Beijing and Rome, while leaving some 80 million Americans under excessive heat warnings.

El Nino is a natural phenomenon that in addition to contributing to higher temperatures in many parts of the world, also drives tropical cyclones in the Pacific and boosts rainfall and flood risk in parts of the Americas, Asia and elsewhere.

In June, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that an El Nino is now under way. The past three years have been dominated by the cooler La Nina pattern.

Scientists have warned that this year looks particularly worrying. The last time a strong El Nino was in full swing, in 2016, the world saw its hottest year on record. Meteorologists expect that this El Nino, coupled with excess warming from climate change, will see the world grapple with record-high temperatures.

Experts are also concerned about what is going on in the ocean. An El Nino means that waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than usual. Globally, sea temperatures hit new records for the months of May and June, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. That could supercharge extreme weather, Reuters reported.

“We’re in unprecedented territory,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

This year’s El Nino could lead to global economic losses of $3 trillion, according to a study published last month in the journal Science, shrinking GDP as extreme weather decimates agricultural production, manufacturing, and helps spread disease.

Governments in vulnerable countries are taking note. Peru has set aside $1.06 billion to deal with El Nino’s impacts and climate change, while the Philippines — at risk from cyclones — has formed a special government team to handle the predicted fallout.

WHAT CAUSES AN EL NINO?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern borne out of unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific.

It forms when the trade winds blowing east-to-west along the equatorial Pacific slow down or reverse as air pressure changes, although scientists are not entirely sure what kicks off the cycle.

Because the trade winds affect the sun-warmed surface waters, a weakening causes these warm western Pacific waters to slosh back into the colder central and eastern Pacific basins.

During the 2015-16 El Nino — the strongest such event on record — anchovy stocks off the coast of Peru crashed amid this warm water incursion. And nearly a third of the corals on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef died. In too-warm waters corals will expel living algae, causing them to calcify and turn white.

This build-up of warm water in the eastern Pacific also transfers heat high into the atmosphere through convection, generating thunderstorms.

“When El Nino moves that warm water, it moves where thunderstorms happen,” said NOAA meteorologist Tom DiLiberto. “That’s the first atmospheric domino to fall.”

HOW DOES EL NINO AFFECT THE WORLD’S WEATHER?
This shift in storm activity affects the current of fast-flowing air that moves weather around the world — called the subtropical jet stream — pushing its path southward and straightening it out into a flatter stream that delivers similar weather along the same latitudes.

“If you’re changing where the storm highway goes … you’re changing what kind of weather we would expect to see,” DiLiberto said.

During an El Nino, the southern United States experiences cooler and wetter weather, while parts of the U.S. West and Canada are warmer and drier.

Hurricane activity falters as the storms fail to form in the Atlantic due to changes in the wind, sparing the United States. But tropical cyclones in the Pacific get a boost, with storms often spinning toward vulnerable islands.

Some parts of Central and South America experience heavy rainfall, although the Amazon rainforest tends to suffer from drier conditions.

And Australia endures extreme heat, drought and bushfires.

El Nino could offer a reprieve to the Horn of Africa, which recently suffered five consecutive failed rainy seasons. El Nino brings more rain to the Horn, unlike the triple-dip La Nina, which desiccated the region.

Historically, both El Nino and La Nina have occurred about every two to seven years on average, with El Nino lasting 9 to 12 months. La Nina, which takes hold when waters are cooler in the Eastern Pacific, can last one to three years.

IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING EL NINO?
How climate change might be affecting El Nino is “a very big research question,” said DiLiberto. While climate change is doubling down on the impacts from El Nino — layering heat on top of heat, or excess rainfall on top of excess rainfall — it’s less clear if climate change is influencing the phenomenon itself.

Scientists are not sure whether climate change will shift the balance between El Nino and La Nina, making one pattern more or less frequent. If ocean temperatures are rising across the board, it is unlikely the cycle would change, scientists said, as the basic mechanics behind the phenomenon stay the same.

However, if some parts of the ocean are warming faster than others, that could influence how El Nino plays out by amplifying temperature differences.

Climate Change

Powerful earthquake of 6.2 magnitude shakes Istanbul

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A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 shook Istanbul on Wednesday, Turkey’s AFAD disaster agency said, one of the strongest quakes to strike the city of 16 million in recent years.

There were no immediate reports of damage, but people evacuated buildings as the quake hit and shook the city, located on the European and Asian shores of the Bosphorus strait.

The epicentre of the quake, which struck at 12:49 (0949 GMT) was in the area of Silivri, some 80 km (50 miles) to the west of Istanbul. It was at a depth of 6.92 km (4.3 miles), AFAD said.

Broadcaster TGRT reported that one person had been injured as a result of jumping off a balcony during the quake, which occurred during a public holiday in Turkey.

AFAD warned people in the region against entering damaged buildings.

The German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) said the earthquake had a magnitude 6.02. It was at a depth of 10 km (6.21 miles) GFZ said.

(Reuters)

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Climate Change

Tornadoes, heavy rains rip across central, southern US

Millions of people are under alerts for tornadoes and flash floods and dangers will continue into early Thursday

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Tornadoes ripped across a wide swath of central and southern United States on Wednesday, destroying homes and businesses and bringing down power lines and trees.

The National Weather Service said there had been at least 15 reports of tornadoes in at least four states by late Wednesday.

Eight people have been injured across Kentucky and Arkansas, including one critically injured in Kentucky’s Ballard County, local officials said.

Late Wednesday, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency across the state due to the storms, which also brought hail and torrential rain, Reuters reported.

The NWS said millions of people were under alerts for tornadoes and flash floods and that dangers would continue into early Thursday.

Violent storms are forecast to ravage the country for several days, the NWS said, with Wednesday just “the beginning of a multi-day catastrophic and potentially historic heavy rainfall event.”

“The word for tonight is ‘chaotic’,” said Scott Kleebauer, a NWS meteorologist. “This is a large expanse of storms migrating slowly to the east, stretching from southeast Michigan down into southeastern Arkansas.”

The town of Nevada, Missouri, was hit by a tornado. Writing on social media, the state’s Emergency Management Agency said it caused “major damage to several businesses, power poles were snapped and several (empty) train cars were flipped onto their sides by the powerful storm!”

The NWS issued tornado and flash flood warnings for parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky and Oklahoma.

It called the rain threats for Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi in the coming days a “generational flood event” with some locations forecast to see as much as 15 inches (38.1 cm) of rain by the weekend, which could cause rivers to burst their banks and cause “catastrophic river flooding.”

More than 400,000 customers had their power knocked out across the storm-hit area, according to PowerOutage.us.

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UN urges aid to Myanmar quake survivors before monsoons hit, death toll climbs towards 3,000

Aid groups in Myanmar warned that the window to find survivors was closing fast.

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United Nations officials who surveyed earthquake damage in Myanmar urged the global community on Tuesday to ramp up aid before the looming monsoon season worsens already catastrophic conditions, with the death toll at 2,719 and expected to surpass 3,000.

Drinking water, hygiene, food, shelter and medicine are the most critical needs following extensive damage to buildings, roads and bridges, said Marcoluigi Corsi, acting humanitarian and resident coordinator following a two-day visit.

“We remain, of course, deeply committed to reaching people in Myanmar who need aid,” U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said. “And we must act swiftly to provide relief before the upcoming monsoon season, which, of course, will even worsen this horrendous crisis.”

A civil war in Myanmar had displaced more than 3 million people long before the quake struck. U.N. Special Envoy for Myanmar Julie Bishop urged all sides to immediately cease fire, permit humanitarian access and ensure aid workers are safe.

“Continuing military operations in disaster-affected areas risks further loss of life,” she said in the statement.

Aid groups in Myanmar warned that the window to find survivors was closing fast.

Myanmar’s military ruler Min Aung Hlaing said the death toll from Friday’s 7.7 magnitude quake reached 2,719 as of Tuesday morning and was expected to surpass 3,000. Some 4,521 people were injured and 441 missing.

“Among the missing, most are assumed to be dead. There is a narrow chance for them to remain alive,” he said in a speech.

The quake, which struck at lunchtime on Friday, was the strongest to hit the Southeast Asian country in more than a century. It toppled ancient pagodas and modern buildings alike and inflicted significant damage on Myanmar’s second city Mandalay and Naypyitaw, the capital the previous junta purpose-built to be an impregnable fortress.

U.N. agencies said hospitals were overwhelmed and rescue efforts hindered by infrastructure damage and the civil war. Rebels have accused the military of conducting airstrikes even after the quake and on Tuesday a major rebel alliance declared a unilateral ceasefire to help relief efforts.

The earthquake was the latest in a succession of blows for the impoverished country of 53 million people following a 2021 coup that returned the military to power and devastated the economy after a decade of development and tentative democracy.

Myanmar’s military has been accused of widespread atrocities against civilians as it fought to quell a multi-pronged rebellion after the coup. It has dismissed the accusations as misinformation and says it is protecting the country from terrorists.

In neighbouring Thailand, the death toll from the quake rose to 21 on Tuesday, with hundreds of buildings damaged. Rescuers kept searching for life in the rubble of a collapsed skyscraper under construction in the capital Bangkok, but acknowledged time was against them.

The region has been hit by five more aftershocks.

Julia Rees of the U.N. children’s agency UNICEF said she witnessed entire communities in Myanmar that had been flattened, with immense destruction and psychological trauma.

“And yet, this crisis is still unfolding. The tremors are continuing. Search and rescue operations are ongoing. Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble,” she said in a statement.

“Let me be clear: the needs are massive, and they are rising by the hour. The window for life-saving response is closing.”

In the Mandalay area, 50 children and two teachers were killed when their preschool collapsed, the U.N. humanitarian agency said.

In a rare survival story, a 63-year-old woman who was trapped for 91 hours was pulled from the rubble of a building in Naypyitaw on Tuesday in a joint rescue effort by the Myanmar fire department and teams from India, China and Russia.

Myanmar’s civil war has complicated efforts to reach those injured and made homeless, including tight controls over the internet and communication networks.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance of three major rebel groups at war with the junta on Tuesday declared a unilateral one-month ceasefire, to allow urgent humanitarian efforts to “be carried out as swiftly and effectively as possible”.

In its nightly news bulletin on Tuesday, state-controlled MRTV quoted Min Aung Hlaing as saying the military had halted its offensives but unspecified ethnic minority armies were planning to exploit the disaster.

“The military is aware they are gathering, training, and preparing to attack,” it said, quoting the general as saying at an event to raise funds for quake victims. “We consider it as attacking us and will respond accordingly.”

One rebel group, the Karen National Union, on Sunday said the junta had conducted airstrikes in the east of the country at a time when it should be prioritising quake relief efforts.

Amnesty International said it had received testimony corroborating reports of air strikes near areas where quake recovery efforts were focused.

“You cannot ask for aid with one hand and bomb with the other,” said Amnesty’s Myanmar researcher Joe Freeman.

It was unclear if Min Aung Hlaing would make a rare foreign trip this week to attend a regional summit in Bangkok as planned. Thailand’s on Tuesday said the general may attend by teleconference.

In Bangkok, rescuers were still seeking signs of life in the ruins of an unfinished skyscraper that collapsed, aware that four days after the quake, chances had dimmed of finding survivors.

Fourteen deaths have been confirmed at the site and seven elsewhere in the city. The government is investigating the collapse and initial tests showed some steel samples from the site were substandard.

There were an estimated 70 bodies under the rubble and experts said 12 had been located using scanners, but access was blocked by large debris.

“Maybe they can survive one week or two weeks, so we have to go on,” Bangkok Governor Chadchart Sittipunt said. “The experts still have hope.”

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