Pakistan’s citrus sector is facing a worsening export crisis as the closure of the Afghanistan crossing continues to block access to its largest market.

Despite the start of the 2025 citrus season, exports are set to fall further from an already steep decline — dropping from $211 million in fiscal year 2021 to just $92.5 million in fiscal year 2025.

Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.

This year alone, Pakistan shipped 153,683 tonnes of citrus to Afghanistan, while exports through the Afghan transit route also supply Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. With that corridor shut, exporters warn that the bulk of Pakistan’s kinnow harvest could go unsold.

A temporary policy exemption now allows citrus shipments to transit through Iran, but exporters say volumes to Central Asia and Russia cannot compensate for the loss of the Afghan market.

The crisis, however, goes deeper than the current crossing closure situation. Pakistan’s citrus industry continues to suffer from long-standing structural challenges — including reliance on the outdated, seeded kinnow variety that makes up over 90% of exports.

Climate change, rising pest pressure, shrinking yields, and declining A-grade fruit quality have all eroded competitiveness. Yields have fallen to about six tonnes per acre, and nearly half of kinnow processing units have closed.

Global competitors such as Egypt, China, Spain, Morocco, and Brazil have overtaken Pakistan by introducing new seedless, high-yielding varieties with longer harvest windows. As profits shrink, farmers are abandoning citrus orchards: the cultivated area has dropped 16% in the past five years.

Experts say Pakistan must urgently invest in developing seedless, climate-resilient varieties and strengthen existing research centres. At the same time, trade officials need to diversify export destinations by securing new sanitary and phytosanitary agreements to reduce dependence on a single market.

Without structural reforms and diversified access, Pakistan’s signature fruit risks losing its place in global markets — and its farmers risk losing their livelihoods.

The Ministry of Finance of Afghanistan and UAE-based DP World have signed an investment term sheet to modernize key commercial land ports, marking a significant step in enhancing the country’s trade infrastructure.

Abdullah Azzam, Head of the Economic Affairs Office at the Office of the Prime Minister, stated that the agreement opens the door for foreign investment and new contracts.

He said that that under this agreement, Afghanistan’s ports will be modernized and equipped with cutting-edge technology.

The agreement outlines the development of cargo handling facilities, port management systems, and operations using advanced equipment in line with international standards. Hairatan Port will be upgraded in the first phase, followed by Torkham Port in the second phase, with subsequent expansion to logistics corridors, economic zones, and other national projects.

DP World officials emphasized that the modernization of these ports will not only increase trade but also create new employment opportunities.

They highlighted Afghanistan’s strategic location as a vital link between Central and South Asia and pledged continued efforts to support the country’s economic growth.

Economic analysts believe the investment will boost trade efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance the country’s transit capacity. Modernizing the ports is also expected to attract further foreign investment and strengthen Afghanistan’s overall economy.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Tahir Andarabi, stated on Friday that trade with Afghanistan will remain suspended until Islamabad receives firm assurances from Kabul.

The crossings “will remain closed until we receive firm assurances from the Afghan side that violence, violent elements, and terrorists from their soil will not cross over into Pakistan to perpetrate the crimes they have committed,” Andarabi said.

He emphasized that the concern is not limited to the TTP, but also includes Afghan nationals involved in attacks inside Pakistan.

The crossings were closed on October 12 following Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan and deadly clashes near the Durand Line.

Despite the closure, Pakistan has allowed the return of refugees and the passage of humanitarian assistance.

Islamabad has repeatedly cited militancy as a key reason for restricting movement along the Durand Line and has called for stronger cooperation from Kabul to prevent attacks and ensure regional security.

The Islamic Emirate has, however, has said it cannot be held responsible for security inside Pakistan.

IEA spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid recently said that trade routes will reopen when strong assurances are obtained from the Pakistani government that it will not use closure as a mean to apply political pressure.