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ICG spells out US policy challenges involving peace talks and Taliban
While peace talks present an opportunity for the US to extricate itself from a decades-old conflict in Afghanistan, they will also pose one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for the Biden administration, the International Crisis Group reported in its latest briefing this week.
The ICG stated that after the February 2020 deal between the US and the Taliban, peace talks took six months to start – and have only inched forward slightly. According to the group in light of this, “it is far from clear where negotiations are headed.”
The group pointed out that in accordance with the agreement, the US agreed to withdraw international forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban cutting ties with terrorist organizations, reducing violence and entering negotiations with Afghanistan.
But while violence levels have remained high, it has also emerged that there are wide divergences among negotiating parties on substantive issues and the Taliban are resistant to scaling back attacks while talks proceed, the group’s briefing read.
“At the moment, discussions are virtually stalled while the parties wait for signals from the new US administration on its commitment, or lack thereof, to the nascent peace process.”
The ICG stated that a political settlement is the best solution and that there is a path open to achieving this – albeit a narrow path.
They urged the Biden administration however to urgently signal its commitment to continue supporting the peace process.
The group stated: “President Biden has little to lose in continuing to test the feasibility of reaching a political settlement. Conversely, an abandonment of negotiations would incur high costs: the likely return of the Taliban to unrestricted warfare (including targeting US personnel), as well as the loss of at least tacit support for US policy from Iran, Pakistan, Russia, China and other neighbours.”
But with this in mind, the ICG said the Biden administration will need to seek an extension to the troop withdrawal deadline.
“This is not enough time for the new administration to set its policy course and evaluate Taliban compliance with the counter-terrorism assurances it provided in the February deal.
“Nor is it sufficient time for the Afghan parties – who, for instance, spent three months negotiating a brief set of procedural rules for talks – to notch any meaningful agreements,” the group stated in its briefing.
They suggested this be extended by at least six months – also as the new administration needs to establish a regional diplomatic framework to support the peace process and the outcome of any peace settlement.
ICG pointed out that the new Biden administration also needs to determine whether it intends to maintain an indefinite, if small, military presence in Afghanistan for counter-terrorism purposes.
“A decision in favour of a persistent military presence would, at some point, be the death knell of the peace process because the Taliban are unlikely to consent to it,” ICG stated.
In addition, Russia, China and Iran would reject a continued US presence and could take steps to complicate it, the group stated.
“For Biden to keep troops in Afghanistan under those circumstances would make his administration the author of the next chapter of the so-called forever wars that began after the 11 September attacks, which will enter their third decade later this year,” the group stated.
However, it was suggested that the Biden administration’s top priority should be to keep the peace process going and buy the time it will need to face the decisions coming its way.
Nooruddin Azizi, Minister of Industry and Commerce of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, met on Thursday with Sadin Ayyıldız, Chargé d’Affaires of the Turkish Embassy in Kabul. During the meeting, Ayyıldız invited the Minister of Industry and Commerce to participate in Turkey’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum.
According to a statement from the Ministry of Industry, the meeting also emphasized the economic, trade, and historical relations between Kabul and Ankara, as well as the export of Afghan goods to Turkey.
The two sides discussed increasing trade volume between the two countries, strengthening economic relations, facilitating and enhancing commercial activities, cooperation in road transport along various routes, activating the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, and regional cooperation.
Azizi, while thanking Turkey for inviting the Islamic Emirate to the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, introduced the Ministry’s technical team to ensure better coordination and planning.
The Antalya Diplomacy Forum is an international conference held annually in Turkey, aimed at examining global challenges and finding joint solutions through dialogue and diplomacy. It hosts representatives from more than 100 countries, including presidents, leaders, high-ranking officials, international organizations, analysts, and media from various countries.
Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, Prime Minister of the Islamic Emirate, in a telephone conversation initiated by Mohammad Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, discussed regional developments, particularly the recent situation between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate, said in a statement that Hassan Akhund stated during the call that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s principled position is clear and that it believes in resolving issues through mutual understanding and cooperation.
Hassan Akhund added that during Eid al-Fitr, at the request of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, the Islamic Emirate demonstrated its goodwill by respecting a pause in defensive operations.
He stated that violence benefits no party and that actions that increase tensions should be avoided, emphasizing that wisdom and rationality must guide efforts to resolve problems.
He also expressed concern over rising regional tensions following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
The Malaysian Prime Minister also expressed concern about the regional situation and hoped that the temporary halt in hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan would continue, and that existing problems could be resolved through sincere negotiations and understanding.
He added that Malaysia aims to play a positive role in facilitating understanding between both parties.
Israel’s defence minister says that an Israeli air strike has killed Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ navy.
The killing was carried out “last night, in a precise and lethal operation” and targeted other “senior officers of the naval command”, said Israel Katz, in a video statement.
“The man who was directly responsible for the terrorist operation of mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz to shipping was blown up and eliminated,” he claimed.
Since the start of the joint US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, Israel has announced the assassination of several top Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Republic ‘s powerful security chief, Ali Larijani.
Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said there was no official Iranian confirmation yet of Tangsiri’s killing.
“But if it’s true it’s going to be another major blow for a country that has already experienced a lot of military commanders being killed” since the war began, he said.
The head of the Basij paramilitary forces, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also assassinated in Israeli attacks.
Moreover, in recent days, Israeli forces have carried out several strikes targeting the naval assets of Iran.
Last week, Israeli airstrikes hit several Iranian naval ships in the Caspian Sea, including ones equipped with missile systems, support vessels, and patrol craft.
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