Iran is considering releasing hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees across its western borders with Iraq and Turkey.

According to The Guardian, it would be part of what officials describe as a necessarily more offensive and unpredictable strategy in the wake of the bombing of its nuclear sites and the European reimposition of UN sanctions.

The multi-pronged offensive includes expansion of its missile programme, strengthening air defenses, suspending cooperation with the UN weapons inspectorate and on 18 October blocking the establishment of a UN committee to oversee the administration of the reimposed sanctions. Officials remain opposed to reopening talks with the US, believing the talks would fail.

The threat to send refugees towards the west as well as the east has echoes of the warning issued by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who threatened to send millions of Syrian refugees towards Europe.

Iran has at times had to accommodate as many as 6 million Afghan refugees, but Amnesty International reports that in 2025 a million Afghan refugees have been sent back to Afghanistan, having fled either due to poverty or the Islamic Emirate rule.

Amnesty claimed the mass expulsions had been scaled up in the wake of Israel’s 12 June attacks on Iran’s leadership and nuclear sites. It estimates 500,000 Afghans have been sent back over the border since June.

Until March 2025, several million Afghans had been permitted to temporarily legalize their stay in Iran by obtaining a “headcount” document. Those granted this document could access limited services, including access to state healthcare, public education, work authorization, banking and ability to enter into rental agreements. But the authorities nullified these headcount documents.

The Iranian authorities have given different figures about the number of Afghan refugees in the country, but it is thought a minimum of 2 million are in Iran illegally. The UN high commissioner for refugees has predicted that up to 4 million Afghans may be sent back to Afghanistan this year.