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Iran to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia soon, intel sources say
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 that a new training system for the Fath 360 had been successfully tested.
Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran’s government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, according to the intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.
Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defence system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that “the only next possible” step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia, read the report.
Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said.
A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners “are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers.”
It “would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the spokesman said. “The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment, Reuters reported.
Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation.
“Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over,” the statement said.
The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine.
The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract.
A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details.
Such training is standard practice for Iranian weapons supplied to Russia, said the third source, who also declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information, Reuters reported.
A senior Iranian official, who requested anonymity, said Iran had sold missiles and drones to Russia but has not provided Fath-360 missiles. There was no legal prohibition on Tehran selling such weapons to Russia, the source added.
“Iran and Russia engage in the mutual purchase of parts and military equipment. How each country uses this equipment is entirely their decision,” the official said, adding that Iran did not sell weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war.
As part of the military cooperation, Iranian and Russian officials often travelled between the two states, the official added.
Until now, Iran’s military support for Moscow has been limited mainly to unmanned Shahed attack drones, which carry a fraction of the explosives and are easier to shoot down because they are slower than ballistic missiles.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said in July 2023 that a new training system for the Fath 360 had been successfully tested, opens new tab by the country’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Ground Force.
Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Air Power at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a London-based defence think-tank, said: “Delivery of large numbers of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran to Russia would enable a further increase in pressure on already badly overstretched Ukrainian missile defence systems.”
“As ballistic threats, they could only be intercepted reliably by the upper tier of Ukrainian systems,” he said, referring to the most sophisticated air defences Ukraine has such as the U.S.-made Patriot and European SAMP/T systems.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense did not have any immediate comment, read the report.
In March, G7 leaders voiced concern, opens new tab at reports Iran was considering transferring ballistic missiles to Russia and warned in a statement that they would respond in a coordinated manner with significant measures against Iran.
The NSC spokesman, in response to Reuters questions, noted that Iran’s newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian “claimed he wanted to moderate Iran’s policies and engage with the world. Destabilizing actions like this fly in the face of that rhetoric.”
A British government spokesman expressed deep concern at the reports suggesting that Russian military personnel were being trained in Iran. “Iran must not proceed” with the transfer of ballistic missiles, he said.
U.N. Security Council restrictions on Iran’s export of some missiles, drones and other technologies expired in October 2023. However, the United States and European Union retained sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme amid concerns over exports of weapons to its proxies in the Middle East and to Russia.
Reuters reported in February on deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia and on Moscow’s interest in Iranian surface-to-surface missiles.
Sources told the news agency at the time that around 400 Fateh-110 longer-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles had been delivered. But the European intelligence sources told Reuters that according to their information, no transfer had happened yet.
Ukrainian authorities have not publicly reported finding any Iranian missile remnants or debris during the war, Reuters reported.
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Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says
Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran.
Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.
Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, told Reuters he had seen the data but provided no further details, Reuters reported.
Speaking in his presidential compound in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said that some Iranian drones, used to attack U.S. military assets and its allies during the war in the Middle East, contained Russian components.
“I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” Zelenskiy said.
He did not say who, according to the reports, Russia was addressing the comments to. Russia has denied assisting Iran in its month-old conflict with the United States and Israel – a denial that Washington said earlier this month that it had also received directly from Moscow when the issue was discussed.
Ukraine, which has faced sustained attacks by Iranian-designed Shahed drones since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, is helping several Gulf states – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar – to counter drone attacks on their territory, the president said.
Zelenskiy said he hoped that Ukraine would be able to reach long-term deals with some Gulf countries that would raise funds for the production of Ukrainian drone interceptors or receiving much-needed air-defence missiles, read the report.
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Israel strikes Tehran as Trump says US negotiating to end war
Israel struck the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday, Israeli military and Iranian media said, as President Donald Trump said the U.S. was making progress in its efforts to negotiate an end to the war, with reports of a 15-point plan sent to Tehran.
The Israeli Defense Forces said in a Telegram post it had launched a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran. The semi-official Iranian SNN News Agency said the strikes hit a residential area in the city, with rescuers searching the rubble, Reuters reported.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday they had repelled fresh drone attacks, without stating where they originated. Drones targeted a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties, Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, Iranian state media reported.
Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was in “negotiations” to end the war, which has already killed thousands and created the worst energy shock in history, leading to global fuel shortages and roiling markets.
Stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire and had sent a 15-point plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.
Trump told reporters at the White House the U.S. was talking to “the right people” in Iran to end hostilities, adding the Iranians wanted to reach a deal very badly.
Iran’s powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Monday dismissed such reports as “fake news.”
15 POINT PLAN SENT TO IRAN
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East. Israel’s Channel 12, quoting three sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but provided no further details.
The Israeli media outlet said the plan would include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, ceasing support for proxy groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 after saying they had failed to make enough headway in talks aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear programme, although mediator Oman said significant progress had been made.
Since then, Iran has attacked countries that host U.S. bases, struck Gulf energy infrastructure and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
The effective closure of the waterway, where 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, has created the worst energy supply shock in history, sent fuel prices soaring, and disrupted global aviation.
PAKKISTAN OFFERS TO HOLD US-IRAN TALKS
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the war, a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian power plants after what he called “productive” talks.
Pakistan has long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran’s Islamic Republic and has been building a relationship with Trump.
Despite reports of negotiations, the Pentagon is expected to send thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup.
The forces will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops already in the region and accelerate Washington’s massive U.S. military buildup there, fuelling fears of a longer conflict.
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US allies in Middle East ‘edging closer’ to joining conflict
Key U.S. allies in the Middle East are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, as sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure intensify pressure on regional governments, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly weighing deeper coordination with the United States and Israel, following repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes that have disrupted their economies and threatened regional energy security.
While neither country has formally committed troops, recent developments suggest a shift toward more active participation. The report indicates that Gulf support is already enhancing U.S. operational capabilities, including facilitating airstrike logistics and potentially opening new avenues to target Iran’s financial networks.
Saudi Arabia signals shift in stance
Saudi Arabia appears to be reassessing its position as attacks on critical infrastructure continue. Riyadh has reportedly allowed U.S. forces access to the King Fahd Air Base, a move that could support expanded military operations.
Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned that the kingdom’s tolerance for Iranian attacks is limited. “Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation,” he said following recent strikes on energy facilities.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be considering stronger action to restore deterrence, with officials suggesting it may be only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia takes a more direct role in the conflict.
According to the WSJ report, one source said that “it is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war.”
UAE ramps up pressure on Tehran
The United Arab Emirates has also taken steps to increase pressure on Tehran, particularly through economic measures. Authorities in Dubai have shut down Iranian-linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, citing violations of national laws and alleged links to state-backed activities.
Officials warned that further action could include freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held within the UAE, a move that could significantly impact Iran’s already strained economy.
Long regarded as a key financial hub for Iranian businesses, the UAE’s shift signals a notable escalation in its stance, even as it continues to deliberate over potential military involvement.
Regional tensions and strategic stakes
The growing alignment among Gulf states follows a series of attacks on energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. Doha has condemned the strikes as a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to regional stability.
At the center of the war remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the strait continues to give it significant strategic leverage.
Risk of wider regional war
As the conflict approaches the one-month mark, Gulf states are maintaining close coordination with Washington over next steps. However, analysts warn that continued Iranian strikes could force regional powers into open confrontation.
With economic, security, and geopolitical stakes rising, the prospect of a broader regional war is becoming increasingly likely unless tensions are quickly contained through diplomatic efforts.
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