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New US intelligence suggests al-Qaeda’s revival in Afghanistan ‘unlikely’

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New US intelligence assessments suggest that it is “unlikely” al-Qaeda will revive in Afghanistan and Pakistan and that counterterrorism operations by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have degraded Daesh’s presence in the country, two senior US officials said on Friday, CNN reported.

The assessments described by the officials in a briefing to reporters paints an optimistic picture of the overall terrorist presence in Afghanistan, suggesting it has been waning despite the US military’s withdrawal from the country in 2021, the report said.

Since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan – and as the US has shifted intelligence resources away from counterterrorism priorities to focus on China and Russia – the Biden administration has been at pains to emphasize that it retains “over the horizon” capabilities to track terrorism threats emanating from South Asia.

Still, some US officials have privately raised concerns that as the US has transitioned intelligence assets away from the Middle East and South Asia, the Biden administration may struggle to track the threat posed by ISIS, which continues to operate in ungovernable areas in Syria and elsewhere.

ISIS-Khorasan, the Afghanistan affiliate of ISIS, also known as Daesh, has continued to attack high-profile targets inside Afghanistan. ISIS-K attacks have killed and wounded dozens of civilians since the IEA took over in 2021, part of an attempt to undermine the IEA’s rule and erode public confidence in its assurances of security, the report said.

“ISIS-K is a threat that we are certainly concerned about, from an external operations perspective,” one of the officials said. “But it’s a fundamentally different kind of threat than what we saw from al-Qaeda on 9/11.”

The officials added that intelligence shows ISIS-K has been under increasing pressure from the IEA and many of its key leaders have fled the country in recent months.

“ISIS Khorasan members involved in media, facilitation and recruitment in support of external operations are increasingly moving to neighboring countries to evade the Taliban (IEA) [counterterrorism] campaign,” the official said.

The officials said that the threat from al-Qaeda, meanwhile, is at its lowest point in decades.

“Al-Qaeda is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely,” one of the senior officials told reporters in a briefing, adding that the group’s “ability to threaten the United States from Afghanistan or Pakistan is probably at its lowest point” in decades.

That is at least partly because al-Qaeda has lost one of its primary targets: US troops, the official said. The US withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, leaving al-Qaeda without a “proving ground” to train fighters and operatives.

After a US drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in August 2022, the group was left without “leadership talent” and “strategic guidance,” the official added. The IEA claimed at the time that they did not know Zawahiri was residing in the Afghan capital of Kabul when the US targeted him.

Notably, the US assessments downplaying a terrorist resurgence appear to contrast with a report released in June by the United Nations’ Sanctions Monitoring Team, which assessed that al-Qaeda “is in a reorganization phase,” and had been establishing new training facilities in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nuristan provinces.

The report also said that ISIS-K “continues to pose a significant threat within Afghanistan, and Member States are concerned about its potential to develop external operations capability and to project a threat into the region and beyond.”

Asked about the contrast between the US and UN assessments, one of the senior US officials said the UN report was “wildly out of whack” with intelligence collected by the US and its partners.

“We have tried to engage with those who produced the report to understand where it comes from better and ideally, educate them back,” the official said. “The bottom line is, that report is an outlier within the UN system.”

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Russia deems US military presence in Afghanistan unacceptable

Kabulov’s remarks came in response to growing concerns regarding the U.S. military’s presence in the Middle East, particularly amid rising tensions with Iran.

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Russia has strongly condemned any potential return of U.S. military forces to Afghanistan, specifically the possibility of reopening Bagram Air Base, calling such moves “categorically unacceptable.” The statement was made by Zamir Kabulov, the Russian President’s special representative for Afghanistan and senior adviser to the Russian Foreign Ministry, in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Kabulov emphasized that Moscow opposes the establishment of any U.S. or NATO military infrastructure on Afghan soil or in neighboring regions, under any pretext. He also expressed hope that the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, would share Russia’s stance on the issue.

Kabulov’s remarks came in response to growing concerns regarding the U.S. military’s presence in the Middle East, particularly amid rising tensions with Iran. There have been reports suggesting that the U.S. might seek access to Bagram Air Base again as part of a strategic pivot in the region.

Recalling the previous administration under former U.S. President Donald Trump, Kabulov noted that the U.S. had persistently sought to regain control of Bagram Air Base following its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. “There is nothing new in these demands,” Kabulov stated, referring to the ongoing push by the U.S. to re-establish a military foothold in the region.

Russia’s firm stance reflects its broader geopolitical concerns regarding the influence of the U.S. and NATO near its borders, particularly in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

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Over 2.13 million Afghan refugees repatriated from Pakistan

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell.

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More than 2.13 million Afghan nationals have been repatriated from Pakistan to Afghanistan as part of an ongoing campaign targeting undocumented foreign residents, according to Pakistani authorities cited by local media.

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell. The campaign includes inspections of thousands of residential areas and hundreds of markets, resulting in numerous detentions and legal cases against Afghan nationals found without valid documentation.

The repatriation process comes amid heightened tensions along key border crossings between the two countries. Hundreds of migrants have recently been sent back via the Chaman crossing, particularly during disruptions at other transit points.

The Torkham crossing—a major gateway for cross-border movement—has faced repeated closures. Although it briefly reopened, local officials in Nangarhar Province report that it was shut again after only a few hours. Authorities in Pakistan have not provided a clear explanation for the latest closure.

According to Sediqullah Quraishi, head of Nangarhar’s Information Department, the crossing was opened temporarily on Thursday before being closed again without official clarification.

Meanwhile, hundreds of Afghan migrants remain in temporary holding centers across Punjab, where they are undergoing registration and processing ahead of their return to Afghanistan. The large-scale repatriation effort continues to raise humanitarian and logistical concerns, particularly as border access remains unpredictable.

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Human Rights Watch calls Pakistani airstrike on Kabul rehab center ‘unlawful’

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

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Human Rights Watch has condemned a recent Pakistani airstrike on a rehabilitation facility in Kabul, calling it “unlawful” and warning it could amount to a war crime.

The strike, which reportedly took place on March 16, targeted the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Center, located within the former Camp Phoenix complex in eastern Kabul. According to international agencies, at least 143 people were killed and more than 250 others injured, most of them patients undergoing treatment.

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

“The available evidence indicates that the Pakistani airstrike against a well-known Kabul medical facility killing dozens of patients was unlawful,” she said, adding that authorities must determine why the site was targeted and who should be held accountable.

An employee of the center told the organization that three buildings were struck, including a dining hall, a residential building housing hundreds of patients, and a guard post. At the time of the attack, more than 1,000 patients were reportedly at the facility, many gathered to break their fast during Ramadan.

Human Rights Watch said satellite imagery and visual evidence show extensive destruction across the compound, with multiple structures either destroyed or severely damaged. The organization added that it found no indication the facility was being used for military purposes.

Under international humanitarian law, medical facilities are afforded special protection. The group stressed that attacks failing to distinguish between civilian and military targets, or those causing disproportionate civilian harm, may constitute serious violations of the laws of war.

Human Rights Watch has called on Pakistan to carry out a prompt, impartial investigation and ensure accountability if violations are confirmed.

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