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New US intelligence suggests al-Qaeda’s revival in Afghanistan ‘unlikely’

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New US intelligence assessments suggest that it is “unlikely” al-Qaeda will revive in Afghanistan and Pakistan and that counterterrorism operations by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan have degraded Daesh’s presence in the country, two senior US officials said on Friday, CNN reported.

The assessments described by the officials in a briefing to reporters paints an optimistic picture of the overall terrorist presence in Afghanistan, suggesting it has been waning despite the US military’s withdrawal from the country in 2021, the report said.

Since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan – and as the US has shifted intelligence resources away from counterterrorism priorities to focus on China and Russia – the Biden administration has been at pains to emphasize that it retains “over the horizon” capabilities to track terrorism threats emanating from South Asia.

Still, some US officials have privately raised concerns that as the US has transitioned intelligence assets away from the Middle East and South Asia, the Biden administration may struggle to track the threat posed by ISIS, which continues to operate in ungovernable areas in Syria and elsewhere.

ISIS-Khorasan, the Afghanistan affiliate of ISIS, also known as Daesh, has continued to attack high-profile targets inside Afghanistan. ISIS-K attacks have killed and wounded dozens of civilians since the IEA took over in 2021, part of an attempt to undermine the IEA’s rule and erode public confidence in its assurances of security, the report said.

“ISIS-K is a threat that we are certainly concerned about, from an external operations perspective,” one of the officials said. “But it’s a fundamentally different kind of threat than what we saw from al-Qaeda on 9/11.”

The officials added that intelligence shows ISIS-K has been under increasing pressure from the IEA and many of its key leaders have fled the country in recent months.

“ISIS Khorasan members involved in media, facilitation and recruitment in support of external operations are increasingly moving to neighboring countries to evade the Taliban (IEA) [counterterrorism] campaign,” the official said.

The officials said that the threat from al-Qaeda, meanwhile, is at its lowest point in decades.

“Al-Qaeda is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely,” one of the senior officials told reporters in a briefing, adding that the group’s “ability to threaten the United States from Afghanistan or Pakistan is probably at its lowest point” in decades.

That is at least partly because al-Qaeda has lost one of its primary targets: US troops, the official said. The US withdrew its forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, leaving al-Qaeda without a “proving ground” to train fighters and operatives.

After a US drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in August 2022, the group was left without “leadership talent” and “strategic guidance,” the official added. The IEA claimed at the time that they did not know Zawahiri was residing in the Afghan capital of Kabul when the US targeted him.

Notably, the US assessments downplaying a terrorist resurgence appear to contrast with a report released in June by the United Nations’ Sanctions Monitoring Team, which assessed that al-Qaeda “is in a reorganization phase,” and had been establishing new training facilities in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nuristan provinces.

The report also said that ISIS-K “continues to pose a significant threat within Afghanistan, and Member States are concerned about its potential to develop external operations capability and to project a threat into the region and beyond.”

Asked about the contrast between the US and UN assessments, one of the senior US officials said the UN report was “wildly out of whack” with intelligence collected by the US and its partners.

“We have tried to engage with those who produced the report to understand where it comes from better and ideally, educate them back,” the official said. “The bottom line is, that report is an outlier within the UN system.”

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US pauses green card lottery program after Brown University shooting

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President Donald Trump suspended the green card lottery program on Thursday that allowed the suspect in the Brown University and MIT shootings to come to the United States.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a post on the social platform X that, at Trump’s direction, she is ordering the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services to pause the program, the Associated Press reported.

“This heinous individual should never have been allowed in our country,” she said of the suspect, Portuguese national Claudio Neves Valente.

Neves Valente, 48, is suspected in the shootings at Brown University that killed two students and wounded nine others, and the killing of an MIT professor. He was found dead Thursday evening from a self-inflicted gunshot wound, officials said.

Neves Valente had studied at Brown on a student visa beginning in 2000, according to an affidavit from a Providence police detective. In 2017, he was issued a diversity immigrant visa and months later obtained legal permanent residence status, according to the affidavit. It was not immediately clear where he was between taking a leave of absence from the school in 2001 and getting the visa in 2017.

The diversity visa program makes up to 50,000 green cards available each year by lottery to people from countries that are little represented in the U.S., many of them in Africa. The lottery was created by Congress, and the move is almost certain to invite legal challenges.

Nearly 20 million people applied for the 2025 visa lottery, with more than 131,000 selected when including spouses with the winners. After winning, they must undergo vetting to win admission to the United States. Portuguese citizens won only 38 slots.

Lottery winners are invited to apply for a green card. They are interviewed at consulates and subject to the same requirements and vetting as other green-card applicants.

Trump has long opposed the diversity visa lottery. Noem’s announcement is the latest example of using tragedy to advance immigration policy goals. After an Afghan man was identified as the gunman in a fatal attack on National Guard members in November, Trump’s administration imposed sweeping rules against immigration from Afghanistan and other counties.

While pursuing mass deportation, Trump has sought to limit or eliminate avenues to legal immigration. He has not been deterred if they are enshrined in law, like the diversity visa lottery, or the Constitution, as with a right to citizenship for anyone born on U.S. soil. The Supreme Court recently agreed to hear his challenge to birthright citizenship.

 

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Dozens of U.S. lawmakers oppose Afghan immigration freeze after Washington shooting

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Sixty-one members of the U.S. Congress have urged the Trump administration to reverse its decision to halt immigration processing for Afghan nationals, warning that the move unfairly targets Afghan nationals following a deadly shooting involving two National Guard members.

In a letter addressed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the lawmakers said the incident should not be used to vilify Afghans who are legally seeking entry into the United States. They stressed that Afghan applicants undergo extensive vetting involving multiple U.S. security agencies.

The letter criticized the suspension of Special Immigrant Visa processing, the termination of Temporary Protected Status for Afghanistan, and broader travel and asylum restrictions, warning that such policies endanger Afghan allies who supported U.S. forces during the war.

 “Exploiting this tragedy to sow division and inflame fear will not make America safer. Abandoning those who made the courageous choice to stand beside us signals to those we may need as allies in the future that we cannot be trusted to honor our commitments. That is a mistake we cannot afford,” the group said.

The U.S. admitted nearly 200,000 Afghan nationals in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Thousands of Afghans who worked with the U.S. military and their families still wait at military bases and refugee camps around the world for a small number of SIVs.

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Magnitude 5.3 earthquake strikes Afghanistan – USGS

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An earthquake of magnitude 5.3 struck Afghanistan on Friday, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said.

The quake occurred at 10:09 local time at a depth of 35 km, USGS said.

Its epicentre was 25 kilometres from Nahrin district of Baghlan province in north Afghanistan.

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