Regional
Tiny Persian Gulf oil hub at centre of high-stakes military calculations
A small but strategically critical island in the Persian Gulf has emerged as a potential flashpoint in escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, with analysts warning that any attempt to seize it could have far-reaching economic and military consequences.
Kharg Island, which accounts for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, has reportedly been discussed within US policy circles as a possible target. The island, located about 26 km Iran’s coast near the Strait of Hormuz, plays a central role in the country’s energy trade and government revenue, Reuters reported.
According to reports, US President Donald Trump has deployed thousands of US troops to the Middle East, while leaving open the possibility of a ground operation. In recent remarks, he suggested that control of Iran’s oil infrastructure could form part of Washington’s strategy, even as diplomatic efforts are publicly emphasised.
Military analysts say that while US forces could potentially capture the island quickly, holding it would be significantly more difficult and could prolong the conflict.
Former US Central Command chief Joseph Votel noted that although a relatively small force might secure the island initially, sustaining operations would require extensive logistical support and expose troops to considerable risk.
Iran has reportedly reinforced defences on Kharg Island, deploying additional air defence systems and laying mines in surrounding waters. Officials in Tehran have also issued strong warnings, with senior figures threatening severe retaliation if US ground forces attempt to land.
Iran’s Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said recently Iran was prepared for such a scenario, accusing the US of signalling negotiations publicly while preparing for military escalation behind the scenes.
Regional allies have also expressed concern, cautioning that any ground invasion could trigger wider retaliation across the Gulf, potentially targeting energy infrastructure and civilian sites.
Despite speculation, the White House has maintained that no decision has been taken to deploy ground troops, stressing that all options remain under consideration.
Experts say however that seizing Kharg Island could effectively cut off Iran’s primary source of income, dealing a severe blow to its economy. However, they warn that such a move could also destabilise global energy markets and escalate the conflict further.
The situation is compounded by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic has slowed significantly amid rising tensions. Analysts caution that prolonged disruption could have serious implications for global supply chains and oil prices.
While some policymakers view control of the island as a potential bargaining chip in future negotiations, others argue it could entrench a prolonged standoff, with Iran retaining control over production while the US controls export routes.
Energy and foreign policy experts warn that any attempt to seize the island would likely send shockwaves through global markets and risk drawing the region into a broader and more sustained conflict.
Regional
Iran’s wartime leadership moves into hands of Revolutionary Guards
Mojtaba Khamenei, who was elevated after his father’s death, now reportedly serves more as a figure who endorses decisions rather than directing policy himself.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has emerged as the dominant force in the country’s wartime leadership, reducing the role traditionally held by the supreme leader following the reported death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Reuters reported Wednesday.
According to officials, analysts and sources familiar with internal deliberations, Iran is no longer operating under a single undisputed authority at the top of its political system, marking a major shift from the model that has defined the Islamic Republic since 1979.
Sources told Reuters that Mojtaba Khamenei, who was elevated after his father’s death, now serves more as a figure who endorses decisions rather than directing policy himself.
Real influence is said to rest with the IRGC, the Supreme National Security Council, and senior figures in the supreme leader’s office.
Reuters reported that wartime pressures have concentrated authority within a smaller hardline circle, with commanders shaping military strategy, diplomacy and domestic security policy.
Iran’s diplomatic engagement with Washington has reportedly been led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards commander, has become an important link between political and military elites. On security matters, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi has been identified by sources as a key power broker.
Analysts told Reuters the shift reflects a broader transfer of power from clerical institutions to the security establishment. They said policy choices now appear centered on preserving leverage in the conflict, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz, while resisting Western pressure on nuclear and regional issues.
Despite ongoing military and economic pressure from the United States and Israel, Reuters reported there were no visible signs of major internal divisions or political collapse, suggesting the Guards and security services now firmly steer Iran’s wartime strategy.
Regional
Iran gave US a proposal for reopening the Strait Of Hormuz and ending the war, Axios reports
Iran through Pakistani mediators gave the U.S. a new proposal on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, Axios reported on Sunday, citing a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge of the matter.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday Iran could telephone if it wants to negotiate an end to their two-month war and stressed it can never have a nuclear weapon, after Tehran said the U.S. should remove obstacles to a deal, including its blockade of Iran’s ports, Reuters reported.
Hopes of reviving peace efforts receded on Saturday when Trump scrapped a visit to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi shuttled to and from mediators Pakistan and Oman on Sunday before heading to Russia, where he is due to meet President Vladimir Putin.
Oil prices rose, the dollar inched higher and U.S. stock futures wobbled lower in early Asia trade on Monday after the peace talks stalled, leaving Gulf shipping blocked.
“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” Trump told “The Sunday Briefing” on Fox News.
“They know what has to be in the agreement. It’s very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon, otherwise there’s no reason to meet,” Trump said.
Regional
US-Iran peace hopes fade as Trump scraps talks
Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran receded as a new week began, with talks aimed at ending the two-month conflict at a standstill and both Tehran and Washington showing little willingness to soften their terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi left mediator Pakistan empty-handed at the weekend, and U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, dealing back-to-back blows to peace prospects, Reuters reported.
The deadlock leaves the world’s biggest economy and a major oil power locked in a confrontation that has already pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, stoked inflation and darkened global growth prospects.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by phone that Tehran would not enter “imposed negotiations” under threats or blockade, according to a statement from the Iranian government.
Pezeshkian said the United States should first remove “operational obstacles,” including its blockade on Iranian ports, before negotiators can lay any groundwork to resolve the conflict.
Araqchi described his visit to Pakistan as “very fruitful.” An Iranian diplomatic source in Islamabad said Tehran would not accept “maximalist demands” from the United States.
Trump told reporters in Florida that he scrapped the envoys’ visit because the talks involved too much travel and expense to consider an inadequate offer from the Iranians. After the diplomatic trip was called off, Iran “offered a lot, but not enough,” Trump said.
On Truth Social, he wrote that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.
“Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” he posted. “Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”
Pezeshkian said on Thursday that there were “no hardliners or moderates” in Tehran and that the country stood united behind its supreme leader. Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Araqchi echoed the message in recent days.
Adding to regional strains, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his troops to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, his office said, further testing a three-week ceasefire.
Tehran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, while Washington blocks Iran’s oil exports.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier said the U.S. had seen some progress from the Iranian side and that Vice President JD Vance was ready to travel to Pakistan. Vance led an unsuccessful first round of talks in Islamabad this month.
The U.S.-Iran conflict, in which a ceasefire is in force, began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28. Iran has since struck Israel, U.S. bases and Gulf states.
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