The UN Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that Afghanistan’s newly launched National Development Strategy (ANDS 2025–2030) is unlikely to achieve its goals unless deep structural challenges are urgently addressed.

In an analysis of the first national development plan introduced since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in 2021, UNDP said the strategy provides an important framework for allocating scarce domestic resources in the absence of international aid.

The plan targets 3–5 percent annual economic growth, a 10 percent rise in exports, $5 billion in foreign investment by 2030, and expanded infrastructure, energy and extractive industries.

However, UNDP cautioned that overlapping crises—including lack of international recognition, a severe humanitarian situation, mass returnees and climate shocks—pose serious risks to implementation.

The agency highlighted two critical constraints: restrictions on women and energy shortages.

It noted that bans on girls’ education and limits on women’s work and mobility have slashed female economic participation, making growth and shared prosperity unattainable.

It also warned that acute energy insecurity—current electricity supply is just 0.7 gigawatts against demand of five—continues to undermine industrial development.

UNDP concluded that without reversing restrictions on women and closing the energy gap, the strategy is likely to remain aspirational rather than transformative.

The IEA meanwhile has not yet commented on this report.