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Traders expect Pakistan’s Rupee to lose ground in coming week

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Traders expect the Pakistani rupee to weaken further in the coming week owing to a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves brought on by fresh repayments of external debt.

Traders say this is causing concern for investors who are worried about how the country’s economic situation will develop.

“We expect the rupee to depreciate much further during the course of the upcoming week due to declining foreign reserves and repayment of foreign loans. Any developments on the IMF (International Monetary Fund) front are being eagerly watched by the market,” a forex trader said.

The local currency closed at 226.94 against the US dollar on Monday while it ended the week at 227.14 against the dollar on Friday.

Pakistan paid back $600 million to the Emirates NBD Bank and $420 million to the Dubai Islamic Bank, causing the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) reserves to fall to a critically low level of $4.5 billion.

The coming week is turning out to be significant for Pakistan’s economy as a donors’ conference is set to begin on Monday, January 9, which will be led by the US in partnership with Pakistan to garner support for post-flood aid, according to Geo TV.

Currently, Pakistan’s chief of army staff is visiting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Experts have said “no one is second guessing what this trip is about.”

Meanwhile, the delay in IMF funding of $1.1 billion has made Pakistan struggle to allay default fears.

Islamabad and the IMF differ over a review of policy and reforms the Fund is requiring in the country. The IMF’s programe review was supposed to be finished in November, Geo TV reported.

The IMF programe is connected to another essential foreign financing, making it difficult for the country to meet its external funding requirements. Up until June, they amounted to more than $30 billion and included imports, especially energy, and debt repayments.

The decline in the forex reserves put pressure on the rupee owing to the government’s slow progress in rolling over and securing foreign inflows from international lenders.

Given that elections are slated to take place this year, the government keeps delaying the IMF’s requirements out of concern for further political capital loss.

The local currency has lost 28.3% of its value against the dollar in 2022.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has assured that the government would complete the IMF programe.

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Major power projects launched in Herat

Baradar urged contracting companies and technical teams to complete the projects with high quality and within the specified timeframe.

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Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, on Thursday announced the launch of four major electricity projects and the inauguration of five others in Herat province, with a total investment valued at 3.98 billion afghanis.

Speaking at an official ceremony, Baradar described the projects as vital for Afghanistan’s industrial and economic development. He said that once completed, the projects will provide 24/7 electricity to all industrial parks in Herat, as well as to commercial centers, rural areas, and residential neighborhoods, ensuring stable and reliable power supply.

Baradar also pledged incentives for investors in cold storage facilities, announcing a five-year tax exemption and guaranteeing uninterrupted electricity supply by Afghanistan’s power utility. He encouraged both domestic and foreign investors to take advantage of these opportunities.

Emphasizing the Islamic Emirate’s balanced foreign policy, Baradar said the government’s main focus remains economic growth, security stability, and good governance, urging the international community to pursue engagement with Afghanistan instead of restrictive policies.

Among the projects inaugurated is a 130-kilometer-long 220-kilovolt power transmission line from Turkmenistan, along with the construction of four substations in the districts of Karukh, Pashtun Zarghun, Obey, and Chesht-e-Sharif, which will supply electricity to around 40,000 households.

Newly launched projects include the construction of the Pul-e-Hashemi substation, expansion of the 24 Hoot Martyrs substation, creation of a second line at the Noor-ul-Jihad substation, and the extension of power transmission lines linking the Pul-e-Hashemi, Noor-ul-Jihad, and 24 Hoot Martyrs substations.

Baradar urged contracting companies and technical teams to complete the projects with high quality and within the specified timeframe.

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Sharp drop in exports to Afghanistan drives Pakistan’s trade deficit surge

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is actively seeking alternative trade routes and partnerships to reduce future reliance on Pakistan’s commercial channels and strengthen its economic independence.

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Pakistan trade

Recent data from Pakistan’s central bank reveals that a sharp decline in exports to Afghanistan has become a key factor behind the country’s growing trade deficit, challenging previous claims by Pakistani officials that halting trade with Afghanistan would not harm their economy.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the trade deficit with nine neighboring countries increased by more than 39 percent in the first five months of the 2025–2026 fiscal year, rising from $4.4 billion to $6.2 billion. The report highlights that reduced exports to countries such as China and Afghanistan played a central role in this increase.

Exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan fell dramatically by over 94 percent during this period, dropping from $408 million last year to approximately $210 million. Economic analysts note that Afghanistan has historically been one of Pakistan’s key export markets, particularly for food items, cement, medicine, and daily-use goods—products that cannot be easily replaced.

The steep decline follows the complete suspension of trade between the two countries in October 2025. Despite previous statements by Pakistani officials asserting that reduced or halted trade with Afghanistan would not negatively impact Pakistan’s economy, the latest figures suggest otherwise.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is actively seeking alternative trade routes and partnerships to reduce future reliance on Pakistan’s commercial channels and strengthen its economic independence.

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Afghanistan’s first aluminum can factory launched in Herat with $120 million investment

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, laid the foundation stone of the “Pamir” aluminum can production company at the industrial parks of Herat on Thursday.

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Afghanistan’s first aluminum can manufacturing plant was officially launched on Thursday in Herat province, marking a significant step toward industrial development and economic self-reliance.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, laid the foundation stone of the “Pamir” aluminum can production company at the industrial parks of Herat on Thursday.

According to officials, the Pamir factory is the first of its kind in Afghanistan and is being established with an investment of $120 million. The project will be built on 16 jeribs of land within Herat’s industrial zones.

Once completed, the factory is expected to create employment opportunities for around 1,700 Afghan citizens. Officials say the project will play a key role in boosting domestic production, reducing reliance on imports, and strengthening the national economy.

Authorities described the launch of the project as a clear sign of growing investment in the industrial sector and ongoing efforts to promote economic self-sufficiency in the country.

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