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Iran, US on verge of prisoner swap under Qatar-mediated deal

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(Last Updated On: September 11, 2023)

When $6 billion of unfrozen Iranian funds are wired to banks in Qatar as early as next week, it will trigger a carefully choreographed sequence that will see as many as five detained U.S. dual nationals leave Iran and a similar number of Iranian prisoners held in the U.S. fly home, according to eight Iranian and other sources familiar with the negotiations who spoke to Reuters.

As a first step, Iran on Aug. 10 released four U.S. citizens from Tehran’s Evin prison into house arrest, where they joined a fifth, who was already under house arrest. Later that day U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the move the first step of a process that would lead to their return home.

They include businessmen Siamak Namazi, 51, and Emad Sharqi, 59, as well as environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, 67, who also holds British nationality, the U.S. administration has said. The Tahbaz and Shargi families did not respond to requests for comment. A lawyer for the Namazi family declined to comment.

The identities of the fourth and fifth Americans, one of whom according to two sources is a woman, have not been disclosed. Reuters couldn’t establish which Iranian prisoners, in turn, would be swapped by the U.S.

At the centre of the negotiations that forged this deal between the superpower which Iran brands the “Great Satan” and the Islamic Republic which Washington calls a state sponsor of terrorism is the tiny but hugely rich state of Qatar.

Doha hosted at least eight rounds of talks involving Iranian and U.S. negotiators sitting in separate hotels speaking via shuttle diplomacy, a source briefed on the discussions said, with the earlier sessions focused mainly on the thorny nuclear issue and the later ones on the prisoner releases, Reuters reported.

Doha will implement a financial arrangement under which it will pay banking fees and monitor how Iran spends the unfrozen cash to ensure no money is spent on items under U.S. sanctions, and the prisoners will transit Qatar when they are swapped, according to three of the sources.

“Iran initially wanted direct access to the funds but in the end agreed to having access via Qatar,” said a senior diplomat. “Iran will purchase food and medicine and Qatar will pay directly.”

Reuters pieced together this account of previously unreported details about the extent of Qatari mediation of the secret talks, how the deal unfolded and the expediency that motivated both parties to clinch the prisoner swap deal. Reuters interviewed four Iranian officials, two U.S. sources, a senior Western diplomat, a Gulf government adviser and the person familiar with the negotiations.

All of the sources requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of a deal which hasn’t been fully implemented.

A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. was not ready to announce the exact timing of the prisoner release. The Department also declined to discuss the details of what the spokesperson termed “an ongoing and highly sensitive negotiation.”

The U.S. administration has not commented on the timing of the funds transfer. However, on Sept 5, South Korean foreign minister Park Jin said efforts were under way to transfer Iran’s funds.

“The U.S.-Iran relationship is not one characterized by trust. We judge Iran by its actions, nothing else,” the State Department spokesperson added.

Washington consented to the movement of Iranian funds from South Korea to restricted accounts held by financial institutions in Qatar, but no money is going to Iran directly, the spokesperson added.

Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment on the details of negotiations, Qatar’s role in the talks or the terms of the final agreement.

Iran’s foreign ministry and its U.N. mission did not respond to detailed questions regarding this story, read the report.

The sources’ account of the negotiation shows how the deal sidestepped the main U.S.-Iran dispute over Iran’s nuclear aims, culminating in a rare moment of cooperation between the long-time adversaries, at odds on a host of issues from Iran’s nuclear program to the U.S. military presence in the Gulf.

Ties between the U.S. and Iran have been at boiling point since Donald Trump quit a nuclear deal with Iran as U.S. president in 2018. Reaching another nuclear deal has gained little traction since then, as President Joe Biden prepares for the 2024 U.S. election.

The State Department spokesperson also said there had been no change in Washington’s overall approach to Iran, “which continues to be focused on deterrence, pressure and diplomacy.”

Once the funds are transferred, they will be held in restricted accounts in Qatar, and the U.S. will have oversight as to how and when these funds are used, the State Department spokesperson added.

The potential transfer has drawn Republican criticism that Biden, a Democrat, is in effect paying ransom for U.S. citizens. But Blinken told reporters on Aug 10 the deal does not mean that Iran would be getting any sanctions relief, explaining that Washington would continue to push back “resolutely against Iran’s destabilising activities in the region”.

The Qatari-led mediation gained momentum in June 2023, said the source briefed on the discussions, adding at least eight rounds of talks were held since March 2022, with earlier rounds devoted mainly to the nuclear issue and later ones to prisoners.

“They all realised that nuclear (negotiation) is a dead end and shifted focus to prisoners. Prisoners is more simple. It’s easy to get and you can build trust,” he said. “This is when things got serious again.”

The Iranian, diplomatic and regional sources said that once the money reaches Qatar from South Korea via Switzerland, Qatari officials will instruct Tehran and Washington to proceed with the releases under the terms of a document signed by both sides and Qatar in late July or early August. Reuters has not seen the document.

The transfer to banks in Qatar is expected to conclude as early as next week if all goes to plan, the source briefed on the talks said. Reuters was unable to identify the banks involved.

“American prisoners will fly to Qatar from Tehran and Iranian prisoners will fly from the U.S. to Qatar, and then be transferred to Iran,” the source briefed on the talks told Reuters.

According to two Iranian insiders, the source briefed on the negotiations and the senior Western diplomat, the talks’ most complex part was arranging a mechanism to ensure transparency in the money transfer and respect for U.S. sanctions. The $6 billion in Iranian assets – the proceeds of oil sales – were frozen under sweeping U.S. oil and financial sanctions against Iran. Then president Trump in 2018 reimposed the sanctions when he pulled Washington out of a deal under which Iran had restricted its nuclear program.

Issues discussed included how to ensure Iran only spent the money on humanitarian goods and securing guarantees from Qatar on its monitoring of the process.

“To salvage the negotiations from collapse, Qatar pledged to cover the banking fees for the funds’ transfer from Seoul to Switzerland, and subsequently to Qatari banks, while also taking on the responsibility of expense oversight,” an Iranian insider briefed about the talks told Reuters.

The central bank governors of Iran and Qatar met in Doha on June 14 to discuss the funds transfer, a second Iranian insider and the source briefed on the talks said.

According to Reuters the Central Bank of Iran and the Qatar central bank declined to comment.

The talks were led by U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley — now on unpaid leave because his security clearance is under review — and by U.S. Deputy Special Envoy Abram Paley and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, said one Iranian official, two sources briefed on the negotiations and the Western diplomat.

Mehdi Safari, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for economic affairs, joined the Iranian delegation at two meetings in Qatar for talks on the funds transfer, one senior Iranian diplomat told Reuters. Qatari Minister of State at the Foreign Ministry Mohammed Al-Khulaifi was the go-between mediator.

Malley declined to comment. Paley, Kani and Al Khulaifi could not be reached directly for comment.

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Turkey says it killed 17 Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, Syria

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(Last Updated On: May 10, 2024)

Turkish forces have killed 17 militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) across various regions of northern Iraq and northern Syria, the defence ministry said on Friday.

In a post on social media platform X, the ministry said its forces had “neutralised” 10 PKK insurgents found in the Gara and Hakurk regions of northern Iraq, and in an area where the Turkish military frequently mounts cross-border raids under its “Claw-Lock Operation”.

It said another seven militants were “neutralised” in two regions of northern Syria, where Turkey has previously carried out cross-border incursions.

The ministry’s use of the term “neutralised” commonly means killed. The PKK, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

Turkey’s cross-border attacks into northern Iraq have been a source of tension with its southeastern neighbour for years. Ankara has asked Iraq for more cooperation in combating the PKK, and Baghdad labelled the group a “banned organisation” in March.

Last month, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan held talks with officials in Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, about the continued presence of the PKK in northern Iraq, where it is based, and other issues. Erdogan later said he believed Iraq saw the need to eliminate the PKK as well.

Turkey has also staged military incursions in Syria’s north against the YPG militia, which it regards as a wing of the PKK.

Erdogan and his ministers have repeatedly said that while Ankara is working on repairing ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government after years of animosity, it will mount a new offensive into northern Syria to push the YPG away from its border.

 

(Reuters)

 

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Putin starts new six-year term with challenge to the West

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(Last Updated On: May 8, 2024)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was up the West to choose between confrontation and cooperation as he was sworn in for a new six-year term on Tuesday at a Kremlin ceremony that was boycotted by the United States and many of its allies, Reuters reported.

More than two years into the war in Ukraine, Putin said he wanted to “bow” before Russia’s soldiers there and declared in his inauguration speech that his landslide re-election in March was proof the country was united and on the right track.

“You, citizens of Russia, have confirmed the correctness of the country’s course. This is of great importance right now, when we are faced with serious challenges,” he told dignitaries in a gilded Kremlin hall where a trumpet fanfare sounded to greet his arrival.

“I see in this a deep understanding of our common historical goals, a determination to adamantly defend our choice, our values, freedom and the national interests of Russia.”

At 71, Putin dominates the domestic political landscape. Leading opposition figures are in prison or exile, and his best known critic, Alexei Navalny, died suddenly in an Arctic penal colony in February, read the report.

Yulia Navalnaya, the late dissident’s wife, urged supporters in a video on Tuesday to keep up the struggle against Putin. “With each of his terms, everything only gets worse, and its’ frightening to imagine what else will happen while Putin remains in power,” she said.

On the international stage, Putin is locked in a confrontation with Western countries he accuses of using Ukraine as a vehicle to try to defeat and dismember Russia.

Putin told Russia’s political elite after being sworn in that he was not rejecting dialogue with the West, including on nuclear weapons.

“The choice is theirs: do they intend to continue trying to restrain the development of Russia, continue the policy of aggression, incessant pressure on our country for years, or look for a path to cooperation and peace?” he said.

With Russia’s troops advancing gradually in eastern Ukraine, the top U.S. intelligence official said last week that Putin appeared to see domestic and international developments trending in his favour and the conflict was unlikely to end anytime soon.

It remains unclear how far Putin will seek to press the war and on what terms he might discuss ending it – decisions that will depend in part on whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November. Ukraine says peace can only come with a full withdrawal of Russia’s troops, who control nearly 20% of its territory.

WESTERN ABSENTEES

Putin, in power as president or prime minister since 1999, will surpass Soviet leader Josef Stalin and become Russia’s longest-serving ruler since 18th century Empress Catherine the Great if he completes a new six-year term. He would then be eligible to seek re-election again, Reuters reported.

He won victory by a record margin in a tightly controlled election from which two anti-war candidates were barred on technical grounds. The opposition called it a sham.

The United States, which said it did not consider his re-election free and fair, stayed away from Tuesday’s ceremony.

Britain, Canada and most EU nations also decided to boycott the swearing-in, but France said it would send its ambassador.

Ukraine said the event sought to create “the illusion of legality for the nearly lifelong stay in power of a person who has turned the Russian Federation into an aggressor state and the ruling regime into a dictatorship”.

Sergei Chemezov, a Putin ally, told Reuters before the ceremony, that Putin brought stability, something which even his critics should welcome.

“For Russia, this is the continuation of our path, this is stability – you can ask any citizen on the street,” he said.

NUCLEAR TENSIONS

Russia’s relations with the United States and its allies are at their lowest point since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the world came to the brink of nuclear war.

The West has provided Ukraine with artillery, tanks and long-range missiles, but NATO troops have not joined the conflict directly, something that both Putin and Biden have warned could lead to World War Three.

Underscoring the rise in nuclear tensions, Russia said on Monday it would practise the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a military exercise, after what it said were threats from France, Britain and the United States.

One of the decisions awaiting Putin in his new term will be whether to seek to renew or replace the last remaining treaty that limits Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear warheads. The New START agreement is due to expire in 2026.

In line with the constitution, the government resigned at the start of the new presidential term. Putin ordered it to remain in office while he appoints a new one which is expected to include many of the same faces.

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Putin orders tactical nuclear weapon drills to deter the West

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(Last Updated On: May 6, 2024)

Russia said on Monday it would practise the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a military exercise after what the Moscow said were threats from France, Britain and the United States, Reuters reported.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia has repeatedly warned of rising nuclear risks – warnings which the United States says it has to take seriously though U.S. officials say they have seen no change in Russia’s nuclear posture.

Russia says the United States and its European allies are pushing the world to the brink of confrontation between nuclear powers by supporting Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars of weapons, some of which are being used against Russian territory.

Russia’s defence ministry said it would hold military drills including practice for the preparation and deployment for use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. It said the exercises were ordered by President Vladimir Putin.

“During the exercise, a set of measures will be carried out to practise the issues of preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons,” the ministry said.

Missile forces in the Southern Military District, aviation and the navy will take part, the defence ministry said.

The exercise is aimed at ensuring Russia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty “in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation”, it said.

Russia and the United States are by far the world’s biggest nuclear powers, holding more than 10,600 of the world’s 12,100 nuclear warheads. China has the third-largest nuclear arsenal, followed by France and Britain.

Russia has about 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists, opens new tab, though there is uncertainty about exact figures for such weapons due to a lack of transparency, read the report.

No power has used nuclear weapons in war since the United States unleashed the first atomic bomb attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Major nuclear powers routinely check their nuclear weapons but very rarely publicly link such exercises to specific perceived threats in the way that Russia has.

NUCLEAR RISKS

U.S. President Joe Biden said last year that he felt there was no real prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons but CNN reported that top U.S. officials did contingency planning, opens new tab for a potential Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine in 2022.

Some Western and Ukrainian officials have said Russia is bluffing over nuclear weapons to scare the West, though the Kremlin has repeatedly indicated that it would consider breaking the nuclear taboo if Russia’s existence was threatened, Reuters reported.

“We do not see anything new here,” said Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence. “Nuclear blackmail is a constant practice of Putin’s regime.”

The defence ministry, run by long-term Putin ally Sergei Shoigu, did not say which specific Western officials it was referring to in its statement.

The Kremlin said that it was in response to remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron, British officials and a representative of the U.S. Senate.

Macron has in public raised the idea of sending European troops to fight Russia in Ukraine while British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Western statements about sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine amounted to “a completely new round of escalation of tension – it is unprecedented, and of course it requires special attention and special measures”.

Putin warned the West in March that a direct conflict between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance would mean the planet was one step away from World War Three but said hardly anyone wanted such a scenario, read the report.

WAR GAMES

NATO, created in 1949 to provide collective security against the Soviet Union, is currently holding the “Steadfast Defender” exercise, its largest since the end of the Cold War. NATO has not said whether it would include rehearsal of any nuclear element.

A nuclear command exercise by NATO in 1983 prompted fears at the top levels of the Kremlin that the United States was preparing for a surprise nuclear attack.

Putin has faced calls inside Russia from some hardliners to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which Russia would use a nuclear weapon, though Putin said last year he saw no need for change.

Broadly, the doctrine says such a weapon would be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or the use of conventional weapons against Russia “when the very existence of the state is put under threat”.

Putin casts the war as part of a centuries-old battle with the West which he says humiliated Russia after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 by enlarging NATO and encroaching on what Moscow considers to be Russia’s historical sphere of influence.

Ukraine and its Western backers say the war is an imperial-style land grab by a corrupt dictatorship. Western leaders have vowed to work for a defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine, while ruling out any deployment of NATO personnel there.

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