World
Iran, Europeans meet to test diplomacy with Trump term looming
European and Iranian diplomats meet on Friday to discuss whether they can engage in serious talks in the coming weeks to defuse tensions in the region, including over Tehran’s disputed nuclear programme, before Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The meetings in the Swiss city of Geneva, where world powers and Iran achieved a first breakthrough in nuclear talks more than a decade ago before reaching a deal in 2015, are the first since the U.S. election, and aim to see whether any momentum can be built ahead of Jan. 20, when Trump is inaugurated, Reuters reported.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhteravanchi meets with top diplomats from Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, on Friday, having met the EU’s chief coordinator on Thursday evening.
The level of distrust between both sides was highlighted when the E3 countries on Nov. 21 pushed ahead with a resolution against Iran that tasked the U.N. atomic watchdog with preparing a “comprehensive” report on Iran’s nuclear activities by the spring of 2025 despite last ditch, but limited Iranian pledges to curb uranium enrichment.
That makes the Geneva meetings more of a brainstorming session focused on their mutual concerns over how Trump will handle the dossier, diplomats said.
European, Israeli and regional diplomats say his planned administration, which includes notable Iran hawks such his Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio, will push a “maximum pressure” policy that would aim to bring Iran to its knees economically just like he attempted during his first presidency.
They also say he may seek a sort of grand bargain involving regional players to resolve the multitude of crises in the region.
The E3, the European parties to the 2015 deal, have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialogue.
Three Iranian officials said Tehran’s primary objective will be finding ways to secure “lifting of sanctions” imposed since 2018, after then-President Trump reneged on the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers.
“The establishment has decided to overcome the nuclear impasse… the goal is to use the Geneva meeting to find common ground and if we progress, Washington could join at a later stage,” said one of the three officials.
GOOD FAITH
Since 2018, Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s ability to monitor it.
“There isn’t going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group.
“But the Europeans should press Iran about what aspects of its nuclear programme it’s willing to negotiate on and what security conditions in the region will need to shift for Iran to make nuclear concessions.”
A European official said the primary aim was to try to agree a calendar timeline and framework to embark on good faith talks so that there is a clear commitment from Iranians to begin negotiating something concrete before Trump arrives.
Officials from both sides say the nuclear issue is just one aspect of the talks that will also address Tehran’s military relationship with Russia and its regional role as fears mount that tensions between Iran and arch-rival Israel could ignite an all-out war, already volatile due to conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and tit-for-tat strikes between the two rivals.
On announcing a ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the decision was made in part to turn Israel’s focus to Iran.
While Trump’s return to power leaves many questions open, four European diplomats said the E3 countries felt it was vital to engage now because time was running out.
Western powers hope Iran will decide to begin negotiating on new restrictions on its nuclear activities, albeit less far-reaching ones than those from 2015 with a view to having a deal by the summer.
In return sanctions would begin to be lifted, although the most damaging sanctions to Iran’s economy come from Washington.
With Iran having taken its uranium enrichment far beyond the deal’s limits, it is unclear whether Trump would back negotiations aimed at setting new limits before those in the 2015 deal are lifted on “termination day” in October of next year.
If no new limits are agreed before then, the report could be used to strengthen the case for so-called “snapback”, a process under the 2015 deal where the issue is sent to the U.N. Security Council and sanctions lifted under the deal can be reimposed.
Iran, which has long said its nuclear programme is peaceful, has warned that it would review its nuclear doctrine if that happened.
World
Trump signs order threatening tariffs on nations doing business with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that may impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
The order comes as tensions between Iran and U.S. continue to simmer even as the two countries engaged in talks this week.
World
Trump rejects Putin offer of one-year extension of New START deployment limits
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday rejected an offer from his Russian counterpart to voluntarily extend the caps on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after the treaty that held them in check for more than two decades expired.
“Rather than extend “New START … we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform, Reuters reported.
Arms control advocates warn that the expiration of the treaty will fuel an accelerated nuclear arms race, while U.S. opponents say the pact constrained the U.S. ability to deploy enough weapons to deter nuclear threats posed by both Russia and China.
Trump’s post was in response to a proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to adhere for a year to the 2010 accord’s limit of 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery systems — missiles, aircraft and submarines.
New START was the last in a series of arms control treaties between the world’s two largest nuclear weapons powers dating back more than half a century to the Cold War. It allowed for only a single extension, which Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to for five years in 2021.
In his post, Trump called New START “a badly negotiated deal” that he said “is being grossly violated,” an apparent reference to Putin’s 2023 decision to halt on-site inspections and other measures designed to reassure each side that the other was complying with the treaty.
Putin cited U.S. support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion as the reason for his decision.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the U.S. would continue talks with Russia.
BOTH SIDES SIGNAL OPENNESS TO TALKS
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was still ready to engage in dialogue with the U.S. if Washington responded constructively to Putin’s proposal.
“Listen, if there are any constructive replies, of course we will conduct a dialogue,” Peskov told reporters.
The UN has urged both sides to restore the treaty.
Besides setting numerical limits on weapons, New START included inspection regimes experts say served to build a level of trust and confidence between the nuclear adversaries, helping make the world safer.
If nothing replaces the treaty, security analysts see a more dangerous environment with a higher risk of miscalculation. Forced to rely on worst-case assumptions about the other’s intentions, the U.S. and Russia would see an incentive to increase their arsenals, especially as China plays catch-up with its own rapid nuclear build-up.
Trump has said he wants to replace New START with a better deal, bringing in China. But Beijing has declined negotiations with Moscow and Washington. It has a fraction of their warhead numbers – an estimated 600, compared to around 4,000 each for Russia and the U.S.
Repeating that position on Thursday, China said the expiration of the treaty was regrettable, and urged the U.S. to resume dialogue with Russia on “strategic stability.”
UNCERTAINTY OVER TREATY EXPIRY DATE
There was confusion over the exact timing of the expiry, but Peskov said it would be at the end of Thursday.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow’s assumption was that the treaty no longer applied and both sides were free to choose their next steps.
It said Russia was prepared to take “decisive military-technical countermeasures to mitigate potential additional threats to national security” but was also open to diplomacy.
That warning was in apparent response to the possibility that Trump could expand U.S. nuclear deployments by reversing steps taken to comply with New START, including reloading warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles from which they were removed.
A bipartisan congressionally appointed commission in 2023 recommended that the U.S. develop plans to reload some or all of its reserve warheads, saying the country should prepare to fight simultaneous wars with Russia and China.
Ukraine, which has been at war with Russia since Moscow’s 2022 invasion, said the treaty’s expiry was a consequence of Russian efforts to achieve the “fragmentation of the global security architecture” and called it “another tool for nuclear blackmail to undermine international support for Ukraine.”
Strategic nuclear weapons are the long-range systems that each side would use to strike the other’s capital, military and industrial centres in the event of a nuclear war. They differ from so-called tactical nuclear weapons that have a lower yield and are designed for limited strikes or battlefield use.
If left unconstrained by any agreement, Russia and the U.S. could each, within a couple of years, deploy hundreds more warheads, experts say.
“Transparency and predictability are among the more intangible benefits of arms control and underpin deterrence and strategic stability,” said Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
World
US, Ukraine, Russia delegations agree to exchange 314 prisoners, says Witkoff
Delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to exchange 314 prisoners, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Thursday, adding that significant work remained to end the war.
“Today, delegations from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia agreed to exchange 314 prisoners—the first such exchange in five months,” Witkoff said in a post on X.
“This outcome was achieved from peace talks that have been detailed and productive. While significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.”
According to Reuters report, Kyiv’s lead negotiator had called the first day of new U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi “productive” on Wednesday, even as fighting in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two raged on.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said Ukraine expected the talks to lead to a new prisoner exchange.
Witkoff added on X that discussions would continue, with additional progress anticipated in the coming weeks.
The envoy did not give details on how many prisoners each country would exchange. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular business hours.
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