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Strait of Hormuz at center of tensions as US-Iran talks show fragile signs of revival

For now, cautious optimism over renewed talks is tempered by the reality that one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes remains under unprecedented strain.

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The strategic Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the focal point of rising tensions in the Middle East, as the United States enforces a blockade on Iranian ports and Tehran signals possible retaliation, even while tentative diplomatic efforts show signs of life.

The narrow waterway — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes in normal times — has become a flashpoint in the seven-week conflict, with maritime traffic severely curtailed and global markets rattled.

The U.S. military said its blockade is now fully operational, with United States Central Command confirming that no vessels crossed the blockade in the first 24 hours. Several ships were forced to turn back, underscoring Washington’s tightening grip on shipping routes linked to Iran.

The move is designed to cut off Iran’s oil exports, a vital economic lifeline. However, it has also deepened fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where even limited interference can send shockwaves through global energy markets, AP reported.

Shipping disruption drives economic fears

Since the conflict began, Iran has effectively restricted access to the strait, prompting many commercial vessels to avoid the route altogether. Tankers have reversed course or delayed transit, creating a bottleneck in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The result has been a surge in oil prices in recent weeks, with knock-on effects on fuel, food and shipping costs worldwide. Although prices eased slightly on renewed hopes for diplomacy, uncertainty around the waterway continues to weigh heavily on the global economy.

Diplomatic efforts continue amid military standoff

U.S. President Donald Trump said a second round of talks with Iran could take place within days, possibly in Islamabad, following an initial round that failed to produce an agreement.

António Guterres has urged a return to negotiations, alongside maintaining a ceasefire and ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — a principle increasingly under strain.

Despite the diplomatic push, no formal talks have been scheduled, and tensions remain high as both sides continue to test each other’s resolve in and around the waterway.

Wider regional impact

The confrontation over Hormuz comes against the backdrop of a broader regional conflict involving Israel and Iran-backed groups, which has already caused widespread destruction and displacement, particularly in Lebanon.

While separate diplomatic efforts between Israeli and Lebanese officials have been described as constructive, the risk of escalation tied to the Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate global concern.

A fragile balance

With the blockade in force and Iran warning of retaliation, the Strait of Hormuz has become both a pressure point and a bargaining chip. Any escalation in the narrow passage risks not only reigniting open conflict but also triggering a wider economic shock.

For now, cautious optimism over renewed talks is tempered by the reality that one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes remains under unprecedented strain.

Regional

China steps up Iran diplomacy while seeking smooth summit with Trump

Some observers say China’s energetic Middle East diplomacy is more theatre than statecraft.

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China is accelerating its efforts to end the Iran war, walking a diplomatic tightrope as it prepares for a summit next month with U.S. President Donald Trump while trying not to alienate Tehran, Reuters reported.

President Xi Jinping’s mid-May meeting with Trump is shaping Beijing’s approach to the Middle East conflict even as the world’s top crude oil importer, reliant on the Middle East ‌for half its fuel, seeks to safeguard its energy supplies, analysts say.

China’s modulated approach to the war has protected its back-channel leverage enough that Trump credited Beijing with helping to get Iran to last weekend’s peace talks in Pakistan.

“You’ve heard President Trump repeatedly mention how the Chinese talked to the Iranians,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organisation that analyses China’s engagement in the developing world. “That puts them in the room with negotiators, even if it’s not a seat at the table.”

Considering Trump transactional and susceptible to flattery, China is seeking to advance its goals on trade and its claims on Taiwan at the summit, people familiar with China’s thinking told Reuters.

The dominant view in Beijing is to “butter him up, give ⁠him a red-carpet welcome and preserve strategic stability”, one person said.

China’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to questions about its diplomacy ahead of the summit, the first visit by a U.S. president in eight years. Trump says it will take place May 14 and 15.

With the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as a direct and growing threat, China has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity and refrained from strong criticism of Trump’s conduct of the war so that the summit, postponed once by the conflict, can go smoothly, analysts say.

Xi broke his silence on the crisis on Tuesday with a four-point peace plan that calls for upholding peaceful coexistence, national sovereignty, the international rule of law and balancing development and security.

After Trump warned Iran that “the entire country can be taken out in one night”, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning avoided condemnation, saying only that China was “deeply concerned” and urging all sides to play a “constructive role in de-escalating the situation”.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held nearly 30 calls and meetings with counterparts seeking a ceasefire, according to a Reuters count, while special envoy Zhai Jun has toured five Gulf and Arab capitals.

Travelling at one point by road to avoid contested airspace, Zhai could hear air-raid sirens, he told ‌reporters.

Xi announced ⁠his peace plan in a meeting with Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as he sought to deepen ties with a rival to Iran while pressing Tehran towards dialogue.

China’s “sense of urgency and the mode of intervention at the tactical level are shifting” as the war, which the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28, drags on, said Cui Shoujun, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University.

Still, some analysts say, Iran needs China more than China needs Iran, allowing Beijing to press for a ceasefire while protecting the summit with Trump.

“Beijing’s ideal outcome,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of ⁠International Studies, “is the maintenance of no-strings-attached relationships with anti-Western countries like Iran but also preserving its opportunity to achieve some form of modus vivendi with the U.S.”

While China played a role in getting Iran to talk to the U.S., its ability to shape decisions is limited, as it lacks a military presence in the Middle East capable of backing up its words, read the report.

Some observers say China’s energetic Middle East diplomacy is more theatre than statecraft.

“While the Iranians are keen ⁠to play up their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire, Beijing has shown zero interest in assuming such a role,” said Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution. “Beijing appears content to remain on the sidelines as the United States bears the brunt of the pressure.”

At the summit with Trump, China may agree to buy Boeing aircraft, a deal held back for years ⁠over regulatory concerns that could be the biggest such order in history, as well as significant agricultural purchases.

The meeting is likely to be narrowly focused, analysts say, avoiding ambitious topics such as AI governance, market access and manufacturing overcapacity.

“There is zero chance China will reach some sort of grand bargain with the United States,” said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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Can Iran legally impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz?

Article 38 provides vessels a right of unimpeded “transit passage” through more than 100 straits worldwide, including the Strait of Hormuz.

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Tehran has sought to tighten its grip over the Strait of Hormuz by charging tolls on vessels to ensure safe passage, in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Reuters reported.

The following explains law governing toll collections and ​actions that countries opposed to tolls might take.

WHAT IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ?

The Strait of Hormuz is ‌a waterway connecting the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, and located within Iran’s and Oman’s territorial waters. It is perhaps the world’s most important energy shipping lane. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.

The waterway is about 104 miles (167 km) long. Its width varies, ​and at its narrowest point provides 2-mile channels for inbound and outbound shipping, separated by a 2-mile buffer ​zone.

Iran effectively closed the strait following U.S.-Israeli strikes on the country, and has demanded a right ⁠to collect tolls as a precondition to ending the war. The status of any toll collections so far could not ​immediately be confirmed.

WHAT LAW GOVERNS PASSAGE ON THE STRAIT?

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, sometimes known as UNCLOS, was ​adopted in 1982 and has been in force since 1994.

Article 38 provides vessels a right of unimpeded “transit passage” through more than 100 straits worldwide, including the Strait of Hormuz.

The treaty allows a country bordering a strait to regulate passage within its “territorial sea,” up to 12 nautical ​miles from its border, but shall permit “innocent passage.”

Passage is innocent if it is not prejudicial to a country’s peace, good ​order and security. Military action, serious pollution, spying and fishing are not permitted. The concept of innocent passage was key to a 1949 International Court ‌of ⁠Justice case concerning the Corfu Channel, along the coasts of Albania and Greece, read the report.

Approximately 170 countries and the European Union have ratified UNCLOS. Iran and the United States have not. This raises the question of whether the treaty’s rules affording freedom of maritime navigation have become part of customary international law, or bind only ratifying countries.

Experts say UNCLOS has become or is generally ​viewed as customary international law. ​Some non-ratifying countries may ⁠argue that they need not follow the treaty because they persistently and consistently object. Iran has argued that it has made such objections. The United States disputes Iran’s authority to charge ​tolls.

HOW CAN TOLLS BE CHALLENGED?

There is no formal mechanism to enforce UNCLOS. The International Tribunal for ​the Law ⁠of the Sea in Hamburg, Germany, which the treaty established, and the International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands could issue rulings but cannot enforce them.

Countries and businesses have other potential means to counteract tolls.

A willing state or coalition of states could ⁠try to ​enforce the treaty. The UN Security Council could pass a resolution opposing ​tolls.

Companies could redirect shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz, and have begun doing so. Countries could expand sanctions targeting financial transactions believed to benefit ​Iran’s government, by sanctioning companies willing to pay tolls.

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Iran’s Foreign Minister meets Pakistani Army Chief in Tehran amid mediation efforts

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with a Pakistani delegation led by army chief Asim Munir in Tehran on Wednesday, as regional efforts continue to facilitate dialogue between Iran and the United States.

Iranian state media reported that the visiting delegation was expected to convey a message from Washington and discuss arrangements for a possible second round of talks between the two sides.

According to reports, Munir arrived in Tehran earlier in the day leading a high-level delegation, with discussions focusing on recent diplomatic developments and ongoing mediation efforts.

The visit follows earlier talks in Islamabad that ended without a breakthrough, though officials have indicated that both Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to continue negotiations.

Regional mediators are working to sustain momentum toward renewed dialogue, but progress has remained slow amid broader geopolitical tensions.

The meeting in Tehran underscores Pakistan’s emerging role as an intermediary in efforts to revive negotiations and ease tensions between Iran and the United States.

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