Regional
China steps up Iran diplomacy while seeking smooth summit with Trump
Some observers say China’s energetic Middle East diplomacy is more theatre than statecraft.
China is accelerating its efforts to end the Iran war, walking a diplomatic tightrope as it prepares for a summit next month with U.S. President Donald Trump while trying not to alienate Tehran, Reuters reported.
President Xi Jinping’s mid-May meeting with Trump is shaping Beijing’s approach to the Middle East conflict even as the world’s top crude oil importer, reliant on the Middle East for half its fuel, seeks to safeguard its energy supplies, analysts say.
China’s modulated approach to the war has protected its back-channel leverage enough that Trump credited Beijing with helping to get Iran to last weekend’s peace talks in Pakistan.
“You’ve heard President Trump repeatedly mention how the Chinese talked to the Iranians,” said Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organisation that analyses China’s engagement in the developing world. “That puts them in the room with negotiators, even if it’s not a seat at the table.”
Considering Trump transactional and susceptible to flattery, China is seeking to advance its goals on trade and its claims on Taiwan at the summit, people familiar with China’s thinking told Reuters.
The dominant view in Beijing is to “butter him up, give him a red-carpet welcome and preserve strategic stability”, one person said.
China’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to questions about its diplomacy ahead of the summit, the first visit by a U.S. president in eight years. Trump says it will take place May 14 and 15.
With the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports as a direct and growing threat, China has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity and refrained from strong criticism of Trump’s conduct of the war so that the summit, postponed once by the conflict, can go smoothly, analysts say.
Xi broke his silence on the crisis on Tuesday with a four-point peace plan that calls for upholding peaceful coexistence, national sovereignty, the international rule of law and balancing development and security.
After Trump warned Iran that “the entire country can be taken out in one night”, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning avoided condemnation, saying only that China was “deeply concerned” and urging all sides to play a “constructive role in de-escalating the situation”.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held nearly 30 calls and meetings with counterparts seeking a ceasefire, according to a Reuters count, while special envoy Zhai Jun has toured five Gulf and Arab capitals.
Travelling at one point by road to avoid contested airspace, Zhai could hear air-raid sirens, he told reporters.
Xi announced his peace plan in a meeting with Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as he sought to deepen ties with a rival to Iran while pressing Tehran towards dialogue.
China’s “sense of urgency and the mode of intervention at the tactical level are shifting” as the war, which the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28, drags on, said Cui Shoujun, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University.
Still, some analysts say, Iran needs China more than China needs Iran, allowing Beijing to press for a ceasefire while protecting the summit with Trump.
“Beijing’s ideal outcome,” said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, “is the maintenance of no-strings-attached relationships with anti-Western countries like Iran but also preserving its opportunity to achieve some form of modus vivendi with the U.S.”
While China played a role in getting Iran to talk to the U.S., its ability to shape decisions is limited, as it lacks a military presence in the Middle East capable of backing up its words, read the report.
Some observers say China’s energetic Middle East diplomacy is more theatre than statecraft.
“While the Iranians are keen to play up their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire, Beijing has shown zero interest in assuming such a role,” said Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution. “Beijing appears content to remain on the sidelines as the United States bears the brunt of the pressure.”
At the summit with Trump, China may agree to buy Boeing aircraft, a deal held back for years over regulatory concerns that could be the biggest such order in history, as well as significant agricultural purchases.
The meeting is likely to be narrowly focused, analysts say, avoiding ambitious topics such as AI governance, market access and manufacturing overcapacity.
“There is zero chance China will reach some sort of grand bargain with the United States,” said Scott Kennedy, trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Regional
Turkey lays out plans for defence pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was open to expansion.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will group senior ministers, hold joint exercises and deepen defence industry cooperation under a military pact signed between the regional powers last week, Turkey’s defence ministry said on Thursday.
The three Sunni Muslim U.S. allies, alarmed by a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters, signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” on August 7. They said the accord stipulates that an armed attack against any member would be regarded as an attack on all, similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause, Reuters reported.
At a weekly briefing in Ankara, the defence ministry said the pact’s fundamental goal was to ensure defence and military ties were put on a “more institutional and sustainable” footing.
“Under the accord, strategic political and military mechanisms plan to be established involving the Defence Ministers, Foreign Ministers, and Chiefs of General Staff/Armed Forces Commanders, and that coordination among the three countries will be conducted at the highest level,” it said.
The ministry added that joint military exercises involving land, naval, and air forces, as well as air defence and unmanned systems were planned, in addition to deeper defence industry cooperation.
“The aim is to provide not only product and system supply, but also joint development and production, technology cooperation, and sustainable maintenance and logistics support,” it said, adding that unmanned and autonomous systems, electronic warfare and artificial intelligence capabilities would be prioritised.
Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was open to expansion — with Egypt as a potential candidate — and did not seek to replace any existing alliances, read the report.
The ministry also said Turkey was participating in meetings in Jeddah aimed at establishing an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping.
Regional
Iran says no progress on reviving interim peace deal with US
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
Iran and the United States remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it, Reuters reported.
The comments came as U.S. President Donald Trump issued yet another broadside against Iran’s leaders, dealing a further blow to hopes for a resolution to the crisis, following new attacks on shipping in the region on Tuesday.
The deal agreed in June declared an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts”, but quickly unravelled, with Trump saying it was “over” on July 7 and Iran’s foreign ministry declaring it “suspended” a week later.
The U.S. accuses Iran of failing to honor an agreement under the deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Tehran says Washington has reneged on its commitments, including lifting a blockade of Iranian ports and releasing frozen Iranian assets.
“One of the issues that is being discussed via mediators is the U.S. returning to the interim agreement and defining a time frame for implementing the commitments. There has been absolutely no progress on this issue,” the Iranian source said.
Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz.
But the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the body Iran set up to manage the waterway, said it remains blocked and will not be reopened until Iran’s conditions are accepted.
“Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, read the report.
Iran has struck U.S. assets and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
The June interim ceasefire agreement set a 60-day period, extendable by mutual consent, within which Iran and the U.S. were expected to reach a final deal limiting Tehran’s nuclear program and lifting U.S. sanctions.
The Iranian source dismissed a report on Wednesday from Turkey’s Anadolu news agency that quoted Pakistani government sources as saying they had agreed to extend that 60-day period.
“There is no talk of an extension because, from Iran’s perspective, there is no period that began and therefore nothing to extend. The United States violated the interim agreement 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew from it a few days later,” the source told Reuters.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman and the entrance to the Gulf, handled a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flow before the war.
Benchmark Brent crude futures have surged since the start of the war in February, hitting a peak of $126 a barrel, roughly 75% above pre-war levels, with choppy trade reflecting concerns over disruptions to Gulf oil supplies and shifting signals on peace talks.
On Tuesday, in separate incidents, a suspected and a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to , the U.S. military said.
Oil prices rose but then steadied in volatile trading on Wednesday, after forecasters cut projections for 2026 oil demand. Brent crude futures were trading at around $88 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at around $83 a barrel.
Regional
New attacks on shipping as Iran war talks hit fresh impasse
Oil prices gained and global shares retreated amid renewed pessimism about a quick end to the conflict. Brent crude futures climbed 1.4% to settle at $88.91 per barrel and U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $83.20.
The U.S. and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday as prospects for ending the Iran war appeared to dim, with Tehran saying the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed unless Washington accepts its conditions.
The attacks, in the Gulf of Oman leading to the strait and at the entrance to the Red Sea — both vital chokepoints for global oil supplies — come as the war shows no signs of ending despite repeated assertions from U.S. President Donald Trump of a deal being imminent, Reuters reported.
Oil prices gained and global shares retreated amid renewed pessimism about a quick end to the conflict. Brent crude futures climbed 1.4% to settle at $88.91 per barrel and U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $83.20.
At the southern end of the Red Sea, four crew members were killed in a suspected Houthi attack on a small cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, Yemen’s Transport Ministry said. Two Yemeni rescuers from an anti-Houthi military group were also killed, Yemen’s Coast Guard said.
The fatalities aboard the Egyptian-owned Tihamah would be the first deaths on shipping by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis since the Iran war began.
The Houthi-run news agency Saba reported that the group, which said last month it would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, attacked a Saudi ship carrying military equipment in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. It did not name the ship, and there was no immediate Saudi response to the report.
The U.S. military, meanwhile, said a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to disable the steering gear of a Panama-flagged cargo ship.
The ship ignored repeated warnings to stop violating a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the U.S. Central Command said. Maritime sources told Reuters the ship was hit off Pakistan while sailing into the Gulf of Oman.
STEPPED UP RHETORIC
Both Iran and the United States have stepped up rhetoric in the past two days.
Iran’s top security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said on Tuesday that the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route will remain closed unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions to end the war – the release of Iran’s frozen assets and an end to conflicts throughout the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza.
That followed a new demand from Trump on Monday that Iran should pay compensation for people killed in 50 years of wars, attacks and protests.
Throughout the conflict, Trump has alternated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.
In an interview released late on Monday, he suggested the uncertainty could last for a while, saying he might just “bop along” and let Tehran fail economically, or hit them “really, really hard.”
“I’m sort of negotiating,” Trump told Real America’s Voice. “They’re very devious negotiators.”
Speaking to reporters after a visit to Ohio on Tuesday, Trump said “Iran is going fine, going just absolutely fine.”
“We totally control the Strait of Hormuz … Nobody else, only us,” he said.
“At some point, maybe they’ll do something and then they get blown away,” he said of Iran. “But right now, we’re in a very good position. We have a country that has been the bully of the Middle East for 50 years, really 51 if you think about it … and they’re no longer the bully of the Middle East.”
Asked about an incident in which he switched planes in Turkey last month because of worries over reports of a potential Iranian assassination threat, Trump suggested the alternative aircraft may have faced greater risk.
“That would be the plane I think that they would be more likely to go for,” he told reporters after The Washington Post broke the story about him secretly taking a military flight instead of Air Force One in an operation involving him being moved between aircraft in a catering truck.
“Any consequential president has a lot of threats,” Trump added. “I don’t worry about anything.”
The comments from Rezaei, appointed on Sunday as second-in-command of the body that coordinates Iran’s security and foreign policy, were the strongest indication the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen to shipping anytime soon. The waterway handled a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flow before the war.
“As long as America does not change its behaviour and does not accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened,” Rezaei said, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
There was no immediate comment from Washington on Iran’s latest comments.
Thousands of people have been killed in the conflict since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.
Iran has struck U.S. assets and infrastructure in countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Raising the prospect of further escalation, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said on Iranian state TV on Tuesday that the corps was developing the ability to carry out operations “on enemy soil.”
“We need to be able to move the operations to the enemy’s soil, whenever this is needed and ordered,” he said. “This is the characteristic of the offensive doctrine that has to be attained.”
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