Business
Afghanistan’s GDP to expand by 3% in 2021: ADB
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product GDP growth will increase by 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 after the normalization of business activity and market sentiment.
In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday, the ADB stated that Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to recover this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and continued violence and instability.
“Afghanistan’s economy experienced unprecedented disruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, political instability and continued violence, which cut remittances, trade, and revenue,” said ADB Country Director for Afghanistan Narendra Singru.
“With a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and post-pandemic recovery, the country should be on track to achieve economic growth this year and in 2022 as business activity and market sentiment normalize,” Singru said.
According to the report, inflation more than doubled from 2.3% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020 driven by higher food prices. Food price inflation in 2020 was estimated at 10% with the highest spike recorded in April when border closure and panic buying propelled it to 16.6%. Inflation is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022 as food supplies improve.
However, risks remain, including implementing vaccinations in remote and insecure areas, conflict, criminality, corruption, political instability, and broader social fragility. If unaddressed, these could weigh heavily on the economy and impede recovery.
“Supporting the recovery of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) hard hit by the pandemic is pivotal to safeguarding workers’ incomes and livelihoods, according to the report. Before the pandemic, MSMEs were estimated to provide nearly 1.6 million service and industry jobs. The government approved a 2-year support package worth $295 million in October 2020 to improve business conditions and implemented countercyclical measures that include support for MSMEs,” the report read.
The ADB suggests that Afghanistan should facilitate MSME access to markets by developing infrastructure, improving security, combating corruption, simplifying regulation, strengthening property rights and contract enforcement, and promoting innovation and better labor skills in order to improve the business environment.
“Increasing access to credit and further expanding the formal bank sector is also crucial,” the organization said.
“ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region,” the report concluded.
Business
Uzbekistan launches new cargo corridor linking China and Afghanistan
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan’s national railway operator has announced the launch of a new multimodal freight route designed to strengthen logistics links between China and Afghanistan via Central Asia.
According to Trend news agency the new corridor will see container used goods transported by rail from China through Kazakhstan’s Altynkol station into Uzbekistan. Cargo will then be handled at the Bukhara logistics centre, operated by Uztemiryulkonteyner, before continuing its journey by road.
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Previously, freight along this trade corridor was largely routed via sea from China to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, before continuing overland into Afghanistan. The new overland alternative is expected to streamline logistics and improve reliability.
Covering approximately 7,400 kilometres, the route is projected to reduce transit times to around 30 days, offering a more efficient option for regional cargo movement between East Asia and South Asia.
Business
Afghanistan presses Chinese contractor over delays in Mes Aynak copper project
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum Hedayatullah Badri has raised concerns over delays in the Mes Aynak copper project during a meeting with Chinese officials and company representatives.
The talks brought together the Chinese ambassador, the head of MCCT, and the chairman of MJAM, the contractor responsible for the major mining project. Discussions focused on the lack of progress and the failure to implement key obligations outlined in the mining contract.
Officials reviewed outstanding commitments that had previously been formally communicated to the company, with Afghan authorities stressing that agreed mining activities have yet to be carried out.
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Badri emphasized that the contractor must fully comply with all terms and conditions of the agreement, as well as follow the ministry’s formal directives. He called for concrete and immediate steps to accelerate the project and ensure full implementation of planned activities.
Mes Aynak copper project
The Mes Aynak copper deposit, located about 40 kilometres southeast of Kabul, is one of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves, with an estimated 11 million tonnes of copper.
The project was awarded to a Chinese consortium led by state-run Metallurgical Corporation of China in 2007 and formally signed in 2008 under a 30-year lease. Valued at roughly $3–4 billion, it was the largest foreign investment in Afghanistan at the time.
The agreement included plans to develop the mine along with major infrastructure such as railways, roads, and power facilities, although several of these commitments were later delayed or renegotiated.
Despite its scale, the project has seen little progress over the past decade. Work slowed significantly around 2013–2014, with ongoing delays attributed to security concerns, lack of infrastructure, and disputes over contractual terms. The presence of a significant archaeological site at Mes Aynak — containing ancient Buddhist remains — has also complicated development, requiring extensive preservation efforts.
Afghan authorities have repeatedly raised concerns over the contractor’s failure to meet key obligations and timelines, while Chinese companies have cited security and logistical challenges as major obstacles.
Since the political changes in Afghanistan in 2021, the project has repeatedly come under focus, with officials pushing to revive stalled mining initiatives as part of broader economic recovery efforts. Chinese firms have signaled continued interest, but meaningful progress has yet to materialize.
The project remains strategically important, with the potential to generate significant revenue, create jobs, and support Afghanistan’s long-term economic development — if longstanding challenges can be resolved.
Business
Kazakhstan grain exports to Afghanistan jump sharply
Shipments to Afghanistan reached 302,000 tons during the period, marking a 4.2-fold increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Grain exports from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan surged more than fourfold in the first quarter of 2026, according to a report by Kazinform International News Agency.
Shipments to Afghanistan reached 302,000 tonnes during the period, marking a 4.2-fold increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Kazakhstan’s overall grain exports also recorded solid growth, rising 18 percent to 3.2 million tonnes. Domestic grain shipments increased by 8 percent, totaling 0.9 million tonnes.
Looking ahead, Kazakhstan plans to expand its agricultural processing capacity, with new grain facilities expected to handle a combined 5.8 million tonnes annually by 2028.
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