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Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
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Iran gave US a proposal for reopening the Strait Of Hormuz and ending the war, Axios reports
Iran through Pakistani mediators gave the U.S. a new proposal on reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage, Axios reported on Sunday, citing a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge of the matter.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday Iran could telephone if it wants to negotiate an end to their two-month war and stressed it can never have a nuclear weapon, after Tehran said the U.S. should remove obstacles to a deal, including its blockade of Iran’s ports, Reuters reported.
Hopes of reviving peace efforts receded on Saturday when Trump scrapped a visit to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi shuttled to and from mediators Pakistan and Oman on Sunday before heading to Russia, where he is due to meet President Vladimir Putin.
Oil prices rose, the dollar inched higher and U.S. stock futures wobbled lower in early Asia trade on Monday after the peace talks stalled, leaving Gulf shipping blocked.
“If they want to talk, they can come to us, or they can call us. You know, there is a telephone. We have nice, secure lines,” Trump told “The Sunday Briefing” on Fox News.
“They know what has to be in the agreement. It’s very simple: They cannot have a nuclear weapon, otherwise there’s no reason to meet,” Trump said.
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US-Iran peace hopes fade as Trump scraps talks
Hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran receded as a new week began, with talks aimed at ending the two-month conflict at a standstill and both Tehran and Washington showing little willingness to soften their terms.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi left mediator Pakistan empty-handed at the weekend, and U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, dealing back-to-back blows to peace prospects, Reuters reported.
The deadlock leaves the world’s biggest economy and a major oil power locked in a confrontation that has already pushed energy prices to multi-year highs, stoked inflation and darkened global growth prospects.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by phone that Tehran would not enter “imposed negotiations” under threats or blockade, according to a statement from the Iranian government.
Pezeshkian said the United States should first remove “operational obstacles,” including its blockade on Iranian ports, before negotiators can lay any groundwork to resolve the conflict.
Araqchi described his visit to Pakistan as “very fruitful.” An Iranian diplomatic source in Islamabad said Tehran would not accept “maximalist demands” from the United States.
Trump told reporters in Florida that he scrapped the envoys’ visit because the talks involved too much travel and expense to consider an inadequate offer from the Iranians. After the diplomatic trip was called off, Iran “offered a lot, but not enough,” Trump said.
On Truth Social, he wrote that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.
“Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” he posted. “Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”
Pezeshkian said on Thursday that there were “no hardliners or moderates” in Tehran and that the country stood united behind its supreme leader. Iran’s top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Araqchi echoed the message in recent days.
Adding to regional strains, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his troops to attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, his office said, further testing a three-week ceasefire.
Tehran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, while Washington blocks Iran’s oil exports.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier said the U.S. had seen some progress from the Iranian side and that Vice President JD Vance was ready to travel to Pakistan. Vance led an unsuccessful first round of talks in Islamabad this month.
The U.S.-Iran conflict, in which a ceasefire is in force, began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28. Iran has since struck Israel, U.S. bases and Gulf states.
Regional
Iran’s foreign minister arrives in Pakistan, Trump expects offer satisfying US demands
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in the Pakistani capital Islamabad on Friday to discuss proposals for restarting peace talks with the U.S., offering some hope for an end to the eight-week war that has killed thousands and sown turmoil in global markets.
U.S. President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands, but said he did not yet know what the offer entailed.
When asked who the U.S. was negotiating with, Trump said: “I don’t want to say that, but we’re dealing with the people that are in charge now.”
But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on X that Iranian officials did not plan to meet with U.S. representatives, even though U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner planned to travel to Islamabad. Iran’s concerns would be conveyed to Pakistan, the spokesperson said.
After a U.S. bombing campaign and Iran’s blocking of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the two countries are at a costly impasse, with Iran’s oil exports blocked and U.S. gasoline prices at multi-year highs.
Speaking before the Iranian foreign ministry’s statement, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Witkoff and Kushner would leave for Pakistan on Saturday morning for talks with Araqchi.
Leavitt struck an upbeat tone, saying the U.S. had seen some progress from the Iranian side in recent days and hoped more would come this weekend.
She added that U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who earlier this month led a first round of unsuccessful talks with Iran to end their war, is ready to travel to Pakistan as well.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Iranian statement.
Pakistani sources said earlier that a U.S. logistics and security team was already in place in Islamabad for potential talks.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed Araqchi’s arrival in Islamabad, where a heavy military and paramilitary presence was visible across the central parts of the city.
Araqchi went straight into a meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar at the Serena Hotel, where the first round of talks with the U.S. was held, two government sources said.
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani pledged his country’s support for mediation efforts by Pakistan in a phone call with Trump, Qatar’s state news agency reported.
Araqchi wrote on X that he was visiting Pakistan, Oman and Russia to coordinate with partners on bilateral matters and consult on regional developments. The tour will include consultations on the latest efforts to end the war, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson later told state media.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a briefing earlier on Friday that Iran had a chance to make a “good deal” with the United States.
“Iran knows that they still have an open window to choose wisely,” he said. “All they have to do is abandon a nuclear weapon in meaningful and verifiable ways.”
The last round of peace talks had been expected to resume on Tuesday but never took place, with Iran saying it was not yet ready to commit to attending and a U.S. delegation led by Vance never leaving Washington.
Trump unilaterally extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday to allow more time to reconvene the negotiators.
Oil prices remained volatile on Friday, as traders weighed potential disruption from the worst oil shock in history amid the prospect for further talks.
Brent crude futures settled at $105.33 a barrel, about 0.3% higher, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down 1% at $94.88.
HEZBOLLAH DISMISSES LEBANON CEASEFIRE EXTENSION
On Thursday, Israel and Lebanon extended a separate ceasefire for three weeks at a White House meeting brokered by Trump.
The war in Lebanon, which Israel invaded last month to root out Iran’s Hezbollah allies after the militant group fired across the border, has run in parallel with the wider Iran war, and Tehran says a ceasefire there is a precondition for talks.
There was little sign of an end to the fighting in southern Lebanon. Lebanese authorities reported two people were killed by an Israeli strike and Hezbollah downed an Israeli drone.
While the ceasefire that came into force on April 16 has led to a significant reduction in hostilities, Israel and Hezbollah have continued to trade blows in southern Lebanon, where Israel has kept soldiers in a self-declared “buffer zone.”
“It is essential to point out that the ceasefire is meaningless in light of Israel’s insistence on hostile acts, including assassinations, shelling, and gunfire” and its demolition of villages and towns in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said in response to the extension of the ceasefire.
Israel’s military said it had killed six armed Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon on Friday.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ BLOCKADE
Trump on Thursday said he wanted an “everlasting” agreement with Iran, while asserting the U.S. had an upper hand in the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy shipping route.
The U.S. has yet to find a way to open the strait, where Iran has blocked nearly all ships apart from its own since the start of the war eight weeks ago. Iran showed off its control this week by seizing two huge cargo vessels there.
Trump imposed a separate blockade of Iranian shipping last week. Iran says it will not reopen the strait until Trump lifts his blockade.
Only five ships crossed the strait in the last 24 hours, shipping data showed on Friday, compared to around 130 a day before the war. Those included one Iranian oil products tanker, but none of the vast crude-carrying supertankers that normally feed global energy markets.
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