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Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
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Status of US-Iran talks uncertain as ship struck in Hormuz
Conflicting signals from the United States and Iran over the status of talks to end their five-month-old war boosted uncertainty on Tuesday, with the latest attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz highlighting risks to global energy flows.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the talks were under way on Monday, warning of a “last chance” for Tehran to sign a good deal, but Iran denied that negotiations were being held or planned, Reuters reported.
“They are going on right now,” Trump told reporters at an Oval Office event when asked about the state of negotiations, saying the sides were talking at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, among others.
“This is a last chance for them (Iran) to sign a good document.”
The comments followed Trump’s weekend decision to call off “massive attacks” he said he had authorized on Iran, as talks were to be held, repeating a pattern in which he has vowed major strikes only to cancel them.
Earlier on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said no negotiations with the United States were taking place and no meetings were scheduled.
Iran had no plans to host foreign delegations or send negotiators abroad in the coming days, he said.
Baghaei added that all Iranian negotiators were in the country, except for Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a religious pilgrimage in Iraq. The only talks underway, he said, were discussions with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping activity in the Gulf only reinforced the ongoing stand-off since Iran all but shut off transits through the vital route for a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and natural gas before it was blockaded in the war.
One cargo vessel broadcast it had been hit by an unknown projectile near the strait off Oman’s coast, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said.
Traffic through Hormuz remained largely slow, with three tankers and three bulk carriers among the six vessels transiting the strait on Monday, down from seven the previous day, Kpler data showed.
STOCKS RISE, OIL DOWN ON HOPES FOR RESOLUTION
Still, hopes that U.S.-Iran tensions were easing again pushed down oil prices, while major stock indexes gained on Monday.
Brent crude futures fell about 7% to around $83.77 a barrel while the Dow closed at a record high. Asian stocks and oil prices both edged higher on Tuesday.
Gulf officials and analysts say Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East’s trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation.
It hopes such a strategy will convince the United States and its allies that containing the crisis is more costly than accommodating Iran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz.
“Their big advantage is that they can hurt the regional states and the global economy,” said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute.
In a post on Truth Social later on Monday, Trump called Iran’s leadership “unbelievably duplicitous,” saying they had asked for a meeting and more talks were set for the “immediate future.”
He also repeated his assertion that the U.S. Navy had total control over the Strait of Hormuz.
“‘The United States Wall of Steel!’ Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished,” he wrote.
REPEATED PATTERN
Monday’s events appeared to fit a pattern since Trump launched “Operation Epic Fury” alongside Israel more than five months ago. Trump has threatened military action several times, only to later cite diplomatic contacts as a reason to step back.
Iran, however, has publicly rejected negotiations with Washington since the collapse in early July of a memorandum of understanding both signed the previous month, aimed at ending the conflict.
Trump has yet to achieve the objectives he set out at the outset of the war: dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, curbing its ability to attack regional rivals and creating conditions for Iranians to overthrow their clerical rulers.
Repeated U.S. actions have been met by escalating Iranian responses against U.S. forces in the region, Washington’s Gulf Arab allies and shipping, each time ending with Trump stepping back.
The Hormuz dispute remains a central point of contention, with Washington saying the June memorandum required Iran to open the strategic waterway, while Tehran says the text explicitly preserved its authority over shipping traffic.
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Trump says Iran talks to take place on Monday, sets no deadline for deal
Asked if there was a deadline for Iran to come to an agreement, Trump declined to answer.
U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran will happen on Monday but declined to set a deadline for an agreement after earlier saying he had called off an imminent attack in hopes of quickly reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resolve the impasse over Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, Reuters reported.
Trump had said late on Saturday on his Truth Social platform that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked for time to complete a deal that would lead to “the Immediate, Complete and Total” reopening of the strait and “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat” but that Tehran must “rapidly make a DEAL.”
As he returned to Washington from a weekend in New Jersey, Trump told reporters on Sunday that a negotiation would begin on Monday afternoon but did not provide details of where it would take place or who would be involved.
Asked if there was a deadline for Iran to come to an agreement, Trump declined to answer. “Would I rather make a deal? I’m not looking to kill people because people die, a lot of people die, and we don’t want that,” Trump said in response.
Trump has repeatedly issued threats that he would escalate the war on Iran he launched along with Israel in late February, only to allow more time for talks, which have so far not led to a comprehensive deal.
Trump’s apparent de-escalation after days of threats of new attacks from each side was the latest twist in the war. Attacks have spread across the Gulf to the Red Sea and even a Mediterranean facility in Egypt.
Iran has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the start of the war, causing energy prices to rise and stoking broader inflation.
The U.S. president has argued that his stated goal of keeping Iran from gaining nuclear weapons justifies higher fuel costs in the near term, but the economic pain has put political pressure on him to find a way to end the conflict, read the report.
Oil prices were down more than 4% in early trading on Monday.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi held phone calls with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir to discuss diplomatic efforts, Iran’s state media reported on Sunday.
The official Iranian news agency IRNA reported earlier that negotiations between Tehran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz were in their final stages, citing Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said negotiations were focused on agreeing a new route through the strait, adding that it had “no link to the Strait of Hormuz being opened or closed. That is a separate discussion.”
Last month Iran publicly rejected an Omani proposal, backed by Gulf states, to manage the strait they share. People familiar with the matter had told Reuters the plan included the collection of voluntary fees for using the strait.
Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet, said there was close security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the U.S. on everything happening in the region.
But he added: “With or without an agreement, and regardless of any external commitments, if Iran attempts to renew its nuclear program or advance its ballistic missile industries, we will be there. We will take action, and we will strike.”
Trump and Netanyahu met on Tuesday in Washington, with an Israeli official saying they had explored all possible paths to curb Iran’s nuclear program, including diplomacy, economic pressure and force. Tehran denies it is seeking a nuclear weapon.
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Suspected suicide bombing at police station kills at least 14 in Pakistan, officials say
At least 14 people were killed in a suspected suicide bombing outside a police station in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday, a rescue group and a regional police official said, as the country battles widening insurgencies.
The explosion took place in the Kabal area of Swat, a district in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Reuters reported.
A pro-police rally of local residents was taking place in the same area on Sunday, but it was not immediately clear whether the rally was the intended target.
Fida Hussain, a regional police official, said the victims included five police officers and eight civilians. The 14th person was believed to be the suicide bomber, he told Reuters.
At least 18 people were wounded, according to a police statement. It said an operation had been launched to arrest anyone who may have assisted the attack.
Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif in a statement expressed “deep grief and sorrow over the suicide blast”.
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