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Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
Regional
Bangladesh’s BNP wins two-thirds majority in landmark election
The Bangladesh National Party (BNP) won a decisive two-thirds majority on Friday in general elections, a result expected to bring stability after months of tumult following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a Gen Z-led uprising.
Latest counts in an election seen as the South Asian nation’s first truly competitive in years gave the BNP and its allies at least 212 of the 299 seats up for grabs, domestic TV channels said. The opposition Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies won 70 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, or House of the Nation, Reuters reported.
The BNP, which returns to power after 20 years, thanked the people soon after winning a majority in the overnight vote count and called for special prayers on Friday for the nation and its people.
“Despite winning … by a large margin of votes, no celebratory procession or rally shall be organised,” the party said in a statement calling for prayers nationwide.
A clear outcome had been seen as key for in the Muslim-majority nation of 175 million after months of deadly anti-Hasina unrest disrupted everyday life and industries such as garments, in the export of which Bangladesh is No.2 globally.
BNP leader Tarique Rahman is widely expected to be sworn in as prime minister. The son of the party’s founder, former president Ziaur Rahman, he returned in December to the capital, Dhaka, from 18 years abroad.
Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, 85, held office as interim head after Hasina fled to neighbouring India in August 2024.
Now in exile in New Delhi, Hasina long dominated Bangladesh politics along with Rahman’s mother, Khaleda Zia, while his father was a leading independence figure who ruled from 1977 to 1981 before he was assassinated.
Manual counting of paper ballots will run until at least noon on Friday, officials said, since starting on Thursday immediately after polls closed.
The BNP win with more than 200 seats is one of its biggest, surpassing its 2001 victory with 193, although Hasina’s Awami League, which ruled for 15 years and was barred from contesting this time, ssecured a bigger tally of 230 in 2008.
But bigger tallies for both parties in elections of other years were widely seen as one-sided, boycotted or contentious.
JAMAAT PROMISES POSITIVE OPPOSITION
Nightime throngs of supporters cheered and shouted slogans at the BNP headquarters in Dhaka as the scale of the party’s landslide became clear.
The head of its main rival, the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami, conceded defeat and vowed that his party would not engage in the “politics of opposition” just for the sake of doing so.
“We will do positive politics,” Shafiqur Rahman told reporters.
However, the National Citizen Party (NCP), led by youth activists who played a key role in toppling Hasina and was a part of the Jamaat-led alliance, won just five of the 30 seats it contested.
Turnout appeared on track to exceed the 42% of the last election in 2024, with media saying more than 60% of registered voters were expected to have participated.
More than 2,000 candidates, many independents among them, were on the ballot, which featured a record number of at least 50 parties. Voting in one constituency was postponed after a candidate died.
Broadcaster Jamuna TV said more than 2 million voters chose “Yes”, while more than 850,000 said “No” in a on constitutional reforms held alongside the election, but there was no official word on the outcome.
The changes include two-term limits for prime ministers and stronger judicial independence and women’s representation while providing for neutral interim governments during election periods, and setting up a second house of the 300-seat parliament.
Regional
Polls close, counting begins in Bangladesh election after high turnout
Counting began in Bangladesh’s pivotal national election on Thursday after tens of millions of people voted for a new government following the 2024 ouster of long‑time premier Sheikh Hasina in a tumultuous Gen Z‑driven uprising.
Although final figures were not immediately available, Akhtar Ahmed, senior secretary of the Election Commission, told reporters that nearly half the electorate had voted at 36,031 of the 42,651 polling centres by 2 p.m. (0800 GMT), with two-and-a-half hours to go, Reuters reported.
That is more than the entire 42% turnout at the last election in 2024.
Analysts say a decisive result is crucial for steady governance in the nation of 175 million, as the deadly anti-Hasina protests triggered months of unrest and disrupted key industries, including the huge garments sector, the world’s second-largest exporter.
It is the world’s first election after an uprising led by under-30s, or Gen Z, to be followed by Nepal next month.
Counting began at 4:30 p.m. (1030 GMT) at most booths, immediately after polls closed with early trends expected around midnight and results likely to be clear by Friday morning, Election Commission officials said.
The contest pits two coalitions led by former allies, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat‑e‑Islami, with opinion polls giving an edge to the BNP.
Both prime ministerial candidates – the BNP’s Tarique Rahman and Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman said they were confident of winning. The two men are not related.
“I am confident of winning the election. There is enthusiasm among the people about the vote,” Tarique Rahman told reporters, while Jamaat’s Shafiqur Rahman called the election a “turning point” for Bangladesh and said the people were eager for change.
Hasina’s Awami League is banned, and she remains in self‑imposed exile in long-term ally India, opening the window for China to expand its influence in Bangladesh as Dhaka’s ties with New Delhi deteriorate.
Elections were held during Hasina’s tenure but they were marred by opposition boycotts and intimidation, critics have said.
Alongside the election, a referendum was held on a set of constitutional reforms, including establishing a neutral interim government for election periods, restructuring parliament into a bicameral legislature, increasing women’s representation, strengthening judicial independence and imposing a two-term limit on the prime minister.
More than 2,000 candidates, including many independents, are vying for 300 seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, or House of the Nation.
Voting in one constituency has been postponed due to the death of a candidate. At least 50 parties are contesting in total, a national record.
LONG LINES OF VOTERS, HEAVY SECURITY
There were no reports of major violence, but a BNP leader died in a scuffle outside a polling booth in the coastal town of Khulna and two paramilitary personnel and a 13-year old girl were injured when a home-made bomb exploded outside a polling booth in Hasina’s stronghold of Gopalganj.
Around 958,000 personnel from the police, army and paramiltary forces were deployed throughout the country on election day, the Election Commission said. Police and army personnel were stationed outside most polling booths.
“I am feeling excited because we are voting in a free manner after 17 years,” Mohammed Jobair Hossain, 39, said as he waited in line. “Our votes will matter and have meaning.”
Hossain’s sentiment was echoed by many voters, who told Reuters that the atmosphere felt more free and festive than earlier elections.
Kamal Chowdhury, 31, who works as a driver for a company in Dhaka and travelled to his hometown in the eastern district of Brahmanbaria to cast his vote, said: “It feels festive here.
“People are so enthusiastic to cast their vote — it’s almost like Eid,” he added, referring to Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim religious festival.
Outside a polling booth in Dhaka where BNP chief Tarique Rahman and head of the interim government Muhammad Yunus voted, policemen were on horses with saddle blankets proclaiming: “Police are here, vote without fear”.
“From today, we have the opportunity to build a new Bangladesh with every step we take. This is a festival, a day of joy, a day of liberation, the end of our nightmare. I congratulate you all,” Yunus, who took over as interim head after Hasina, said after voting.
“The crucial test for Bangladesh now will be to ensure the election is conducted fairly and impartially, and for all parties to then accept the result,” said Thomas Kean, a senior consultant with the International Crisis Group. “If that happens, it will be the strongest evidence yet that Bangladesh has indeed embarked on a period of democratic renewal.”
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US used mobile launchers for missiles at Qatar base as Iran tensions rose, satellite pictures show
At al-Udeid, the Patriot missiles were visible parked mounted into M983 Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Trucks (HEMTT) at the start of February, Goodhind said.
U.S. forces in Qatar’s al-Udeid, the biggest U.S. base in the Middle East, put missiles into truck launchers as tensions with Iran ratcheted up since January, analysis of satellite images showed, meaning they could be moved more quickly, Reuters reported.
The decision to keep the Patriot missiles in mobile trucks rather than semi-static launcher stations — meaning they could rapidly deploy to strike or be moved defensively in case of an Iranian attack — shows how risks heightened as frictions grew.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, its backing for allied groups in the Middle East and crushing of internal dissent, though talks to avert a war continue.
There are also U.S. bases in Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Turkey and on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they could retaliate against any U.S. base.
A comparison of satellite photographs in early February with those taken in January shows a recent build-up of aircraft and other military equipment across the region, said William Goodhind, a forensic imagery analyst with Contested Ground.
At al-Udeid, the Patriot missiles were visible parked mounted into M983 Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Trucks (HEMTT) at the start of February, Goodhind said.
“The decision to do so gives the Patriots much greater mobility, meaning they can be moved to an alternative site or repositioned with greater speed,” he said.
It was not clear on Tuesday whether the missiles were still in the HEMTTs.
A spokesperson for the Pentagon was not immediately available for comment.
Iran says it has replenished its missile stocks after two weeks of conflict last summer when Israel bombed its nuclear facilities and some other military targets, a campaign that the United States joined late on, read the report.
Iran has underground missile complexes near Tehran, as well as at Kermanshah, Semnan and near the Gulf coast.
The Iranian naval drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri was visible in satellite photographs on January 27 at sea some 5 km from Bandar Abbas. It was also visible near Bandar Abbas on February 10.
Here are changes at U.S. Middle East bases observed in satellite pictures:
AL-UDEID, QATAR:
Images from February 1 showed an RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, three C-130 Hercules aircraft, 18 KC 135 Stratotankers and seven C-17s. On January 17 there had been 14 Stratotankers and two C-17s.
Up to 10 MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems were parked in HEMTTs.
MUWAFFAQ, JORDAN:
Images from February 2 of one location in Muwaffaq showed 17 F15-E strike aircraft, 8 A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft, four C-130s and four unidentified helicopters. Images from January 16 were low resolution and it was not possible to identify all aircraft there.
February 2 images of a second location in Muwaffaq showed a C-17 and a C-130, as well as four EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft. Pictures of that location on January 25 had not shown any aircraft.
OTHER BASES:
At Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia, images on February 2 showed a C-5 Galaxy and a C-17 aircraft. Images on December 6 showed five aircraft that appeared to be C-130s.
Satellite images from February 6 showed seven more aircraft than had been observed on January 31 at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Images taken on January 25 and February 10 showed an increase in aircraft at Dukhan base in Oman.
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