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Al-Qaeda could rebuild in Afghanistan in a year or two: US officials
Al-Qaeda could rebuild inside Afghanistan in one to two years, top US intelligence officials said Tuesday, noting that some members of the group had already returned to the country, New York Times reported.
Earlier in the year, top Pentagon officials said al-Qaeda could reconstitute in two years, then told lawmakers after the fall of the previous Afghan government they were revising that timeline, the Times reported.
While the Islamic Emirate has long fought the Islamic State affiliate (ISIS-K), they are established allies of al-Qaeda, the Times reported.
“The current assessment probably conservatively is one to two years for al-Qaeda to build some capability to at least threaten the homeland,” Lt. General Scott Berrier, the director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency said Tuesday at the annual Intelligence and National Security Summit.
David Cohen, the deputy director of the CIA, said the difficult part of the timeline question was to know when al-Qaeda or ISIS-K would “have the capability to go to strike the homeland” before they could be detected, the Times reported.
According to Cohen, the CIA is keeping a keen watch of “some potential movement of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan”.
He did not identify specific al-Qaeda members who have traveled back to Afghanistan since the fall of the American-backed government, but Osama bin Laden’s former security chief, Amin al Haq, who served with bin Laden during the battle of Tora Bora, was seen on video returning to the Afghan province of Nangarhar last month, the Times reported.
Meanwhile, experts have said the Islamic Emirate needs to curb activities by ISIS-K (Daesh) and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in order to gain the trust and confidence of the international community.
Mohammad Sarwar Niazi, an Afghan military expert, said: “The US is familiar with ISIS (Daesh) and from where it comes… how can two religious groups (Daesh and Al-Qaeda) be eliminated? If they (US) wanted to eliminate Daesh they could have done it during their 20 years of presence [in Afghanistan].”
The possibility of a re-emergence of Daesh and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is considered worrying by many analysts, and some have called on the Islamic Emirate to prevent these groups from operating in the country.
“Al-Qaeda and Daesh were created by the United States, and now that the Taliban (Islamic Emirate) have taken over Afghanistan, they are responsible for protecting Afghanistan.
“Unfortunately, the war in Afghanistan was an intelligence war, and now the United States is worried and measures must be taken,” said Aziz Meraj, a political analyst.
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Pakistan seeks Russian mediation to resolve Afghanistan tensions
Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, has confirmed that Islamabad has asked Moscow to mediate in the ongoing conflict with Afghanistan.
In an interview with Russian daily Izvestia, Tirmizi said Pakistan is engaging with Russia and appreciates the “wonderful offer” to help resolve tensions. He noted that proposals from Russia, China, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia led to an agreement on a temporary ceasefire.
“We tell all our interlocutors: please tell the Taliban (IEA) not to use this opportunity simply to regroup, recuperate, rearm, and re-attack,” Tirmizi said. “Because such large states as Russia or Pakistan cannot be destabilized by terrorist acts.”
The ambassador emphasized that decades of war in Afghanistan have affected not only Kabul and Islamabad but also neighboring countries, including Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and even Russia. “Therefore, we must all trade with each other, develop education, art, and culture. Terrorism is the wrong way to go,” he added.
The appeal for mediation comes amid rising cross-Durand Line tensions and violence that have killed hundreds and displaced thousands in recent weeks.
Pakistani officials have repeatedly claimed that militant attacks in the country are organized in Afghanistan.
The IEA however denies the claim saying that Afghanistan is not responsible for Pakistan’s “security failure.”
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World must re-engage to prevent all-out Afghanistan-Pakistan war: Financial Times
In an opinion article published on Sunday, Financial Times warned that rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan risk spiraling into a wider conflict, and urged the international community to urgently re-engage with the troubled region.
The publication noted that nearly five years after the Islamic Emirate’s return to power, global attention has largely faded, despite growing instability. It highlighted restrictions on women’s rights and the worsening relationship between Kabul and Islamabad, once close allies.
According to the article, Pakistan’s ties with the IEA have sharply deteriorated since 2021. Islamabad accuses Afghan authorities of harboring militant groups responsible for attacks inside Pakistan—an allegation the IEA denies.
Recent weeks have seen a surge in violence, including cross-Durand Line airstrikes and clashes that have reportedly killed over 1,000 people and displaced more than 100,000. One of the deadliest incidents involved an airstrike on a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul, which Afghan officials say killed hundreds.
The newspaper warned that continued escalation could destabilize South and Central Asia and risk turning Afghanistan into a hub for militant activity once again.
It criticized Pakistan’s military approach, saying airstrikes alone cannot end insurgencies, and called for sustained ceasefire efforts following a temporary truce during Eid al-Fitr.
The editorial urged major powers, including the United States and China, to play a more active diplomatic role. It also pointed to China’s strategic interests in the region and suggested Beijing could step forward as a mediator.
Despite past failed attempts at peace, the Financial Times stressed that the risks are too high for the world to remain disengaged.
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