Regional
Gaza ceasefire and hostage release set to begin
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
A ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is set to come into effect on Sunday morning with a hostage release to follow hours later, opening the way to a possible end to a 15-month war that has upended the Middle East, Reuters reported.
Israeli forces started withdrawing from areas in Gaza’s Rafah to the Philadelphi corridor along the border between Egypt and Gaza, pro-Hamas media reported early on Sunday.
The ceasefire agreement followed months of on-off negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, and came just ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
The three-stage ceasefire will come into effect at 0630 GMT on Sunday.
Its first stage will last six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages – women, children, men over 50, the ill and wounded – will be released in return for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
They include 737 male, female and teen-aged prisoners, some of whom are members of militant groups convicted of attacks that killed dozens of Israelis, as well as hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza in detention since the start of the war, read the report.
Three female hostages are expected to be released on Sunday afternoon through the Red Cross, in return for 30 prisoners each.
After Sunday’s hostage release, lead U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk said, the accord calls for four more female hostages to be freed after seven days, followed by the release of three further hostages every seven days thereafter.
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s team worked closely with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to push the deal over the line.
As his inauguration approached, Trump had repeated his demand that a deal be done swiftly, warning repeatedly that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released.
But what will come next in Gaza remains unclear in the absence of a comprehensive agreement on the postwar future of the enclave, which will require billions of dollars and years of work to rebuild.
And although the stated aim of the ceasefire is to end the war entirely, it could easily unravel.
Hamas, which has controlled Gaza for almost two decades, has survived despite losing its top leadership and thousands of fighters, Reuters reported.
Israel has vowed it will not allow Hamas to return to power and has cleared large stretches of ground inside Gaza, in a step widely seen as a move towards creating a buffer zone that will allow its troops to act freely against threats in the enclave.
In Israel, the return of the hostages may ease some of the public anger against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government over the Oct. 7 security failure that led to the deadliest single day in the country’s history.
But hardliners in his government have already threatened to quit if war on Hamas is not resumed, leaving him pressed between Washington’s desire to see the war end, and his far-right political allies at home.
And if war resumes, dozens of hostages could be left behind in Gaza.
Outside Gaza, the war sent shockwaves across the region, triggering a war with the Tehran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement and bringing Israel into direct conflict with its arch-foe Iran for the first time, Reuters reported.
More than a year later, the Middle East has been transformed. Iran, which spent billions building up a network of militant groups around Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” wrecked and was unable to inflict more than minimal damage on Israel in two major missile attacks.
Hezbollah, whose huge missile arsenal was once seen as the biggest threat to Israel, has been humbled, with its top leadership killed and most of its missiles and military infrastructure destroyed.
In the aftermath, the decades-long Assad regime in Syria was overturned, removing another major Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military effectively unchallenged in the region.
But on the diplomatic front, Israel has faced outrage and isolation over the death and devastation in Gaza.
Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant on war crimes allegations and separate accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has reacted with fury to both cases, rejecting the charges as politically motivated and accusing South Africa, which brought the original ICJ case as well as the countries that have joined it, of antisemitism.
The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies. More than 400 Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat in Gaza since.
Israel’s 15-month campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health ministry figures, which do not distinguish between fighters and civilians, and left the narrow coastal enclave a wasteland of rubble.
Health officials say most of the dead are civilians. Israel says more than a third are fighters.
Regional
Iran says Hormuz open to all but ‘enemy-linked’ ships
The threat of Iranian attacks during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has kept most ships from getting through the narrow strait, the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock.
The Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, Iranian media reports published on Sunday quoted Iran’s representative to the U.N. maritime agency as saying.
Ali Mousavi’s comments came from an interview published on Friday by Chinese news agency Xinhua, before U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to target Iranian power plants if the strait was not “fully open” within 48 hours.
The threat of Iranian attacks during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has kept most ships from getting through the narrow strait, the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock.
Mousavi, who is also Iran’s ambassador to the UK, was also quoted as saying that Tehran would continue to cooperate with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to improve maritime safety and protect seafarers in the Gulf, adding that ships not belonging to “Iran’s enemies” could pass the strait by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran.
“Diplomacy remains Iran’s priority. However, a complete cessation of aggression as well as mutual trust and confidence are more important,” Mousavi said, adding that Israeli and U.S. attacks against Iran were at the “root of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz”.
Regional
Trump says US considering ‘winding down’ Iran war
President Donald Trump said the U.S. was considering “winding down” its military operation against Iran, as Iran and Israel traded attacks on Saturday and Iranian media said the nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz had been attacked.
In a social media post, Trump said the U.S. was close to meeting its goals but insisted that other countries should take the lead in policing the vital shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz, whose near-closure threatens a global energy shock, Reuters reported.
Trump and his administration have sent mixed messages about U.S. goals throughout the war, now entering its fourth week, leaving traditional U.S. allies struggling to respond.
In less than 24 hours, Trump suggested the war could wind down as the Iranian threat was being eliminated, while at the same time U.S. Marines and heavy landing craft were headed to the region on a mission whose goals were not immediately clear.
“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” Trump said on Truth Social.
“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” he added. “If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
IRAN REPORTS ATTACK ON NATANZ NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT PLANT More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran since the U.S. and Israel attacked on February 28, while Americans appear increasingly concerned at signs the war could expand further.
Vital energy infrastructure in Iran and neighbouring Gulf states has been attacked, sending oil prices up 50% and threatening a global economic shock.
Trump had also accused NATO allies, which have not been consulted about the war, of cowardice over their reluctance to help open the Strait of Hormuz.
As the fighting continued, the Iranian media said U.S.-Israeli forces had attacked the Shahid Ahmadi-Roshan Natanz enrichment complex on Saturday morning. Technical experts found that no radioactive leaks had occurred and nearby residents were not at risk. Israel said it was unaware of such a strike.
Israel also attacked Beirut, saying it was targeting Hezbollah as it steps up airstrikes targeting the Iran-backed Lebanese militia in the deadliest spillover from the war on Iran since Hezbollah fired on Israel in support of Tehran on March 2.
Israel said Saturday’s attacks on Iran included Tehran, Karaj, west of the capital, and the central city of Isfahan. Three members of a family were killed in a strike on a residential building in the city of Ramsar, Iranian media quoted a local governor as saying.
Before its strikes on Lebanon, the Israeli military said it had issued evacuation warnings for seven neighbourhoods in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Four Hezbollah militants were killed in southern Lebanon, one in a “ground engagement” and three using tank fire, it said.
More than 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon and over 1 million displaced in the Israeli attacks.
Air raid sirens in Israel warned of incoming missiles from early morning, sending millions to shelters as the blasts of interceptions rang out from above. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Israel’s military said search and rescue teams were headed to impact sites in central Israel.
Iran fired two ballistic missilesat the U.S.-British military base Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean but did not hit the base, the Wall Street Journal reported.
EUROPEAN GAS PRICES SURGE
Natural gas prices in Europe surged as much as 35% this week as Iran and Israel hit some of the region’s most important gas infrastructure. The European Union urged members to lower gas-storage targets and start refilling reserves gradually to curb demand, the Financial Times reported on Saturday.
The Strait of Hormuz, conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has been effectively closed to most shipping.
Leading allies of the U.S. from Europe as well as Japan and Canada have pledged to join “appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the strait, but Germany and France have spelled out that fighting must stop first.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Kyodo news agency that Iran was ready to let Japan-related vessels pass through the narrow waterway. Japan gets around 90% of its oil shipments via the strait.
The White House, in an effort to increase supply and lower prices, said it would waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 30 days to allow the sale of 140 million barrels on tankers. The administration had previously eased sanctions on a similar amount of Russian oil.
As Muslims celebrated Eid al-Fitr on Friday to end the fasting month of Ramadan and Iranians marked Nowruz, the Persian New Year, Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued a message of defiance.
Khamenei – who did not appear at Eid prayers and has not been seen in public since the initial Israeli attack that killed his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – said in his statement that Iranians had responded with unity and resistance and “dealt a disorienting blow to the enemy”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also sent Nowruz greetings to Iran’s leaders, using the occasion to say Moscow remained a loyal friend and reliable partner.
The extent of Moscow’s support for Iran is in dispute though. Some Iranian sources say they have had little real help from Moscow in the biggest crisis for Iran since the U.S.-backed shah was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Regional
Israel launches new wave of attacks on Iran as regional crisis deepens
Israel launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran on Friday, intensifying a rapidly escalating regional conflict that has already spread beyond its initial front lines and shaken global energy markets.
The latest attacks came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Israel not to repeat strikes on Iranian natural gas infrastructure—an escalation that had significantly raised tensions in what is increasingly seen as a joint U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Tehran.
According to a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, the military had “begun a wave of strikes against the infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime in the heart of Tehran,” though no further details were provided.
The conflict, which began on February 28 after diplomatic efforts over Iran’s nuclear program collapsed, has killed thousands, drawn in neighboring countries, and disrupted the global economy.
In the early hours of Friday, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates reported missile attacks following days of Iranian strikes targeting regional energy infrastructure.
Energy markets have been particularly volatile. Prices surged Thursday after Iran retaliated against an Israeli strike on a major gas field by hitting Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar, a key processing center for roughly one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. The damage is expected to take years to repair.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s primary Red Sea export hub also came under attack, even as the kingdom sought to reroute shipments to bypass disruptions caused by Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz—a critical passageway for about 20% of global oil supplies.
Despite the attacks, oil prices edged lower on Friday after European nations and Japan offered to help secure maritime routes through the strait, and the United States signaled plans to increase oil production.
The strikes on energy infrastructure highlight Iran’s capacity to impose significant economic costs in response to military pressure, as well as the limitations of existing air defense systems in protecting key assets across the Gulf.
Facing political pressure at home over rising fuel prices ahead of midterm elections, Trump criticized allies for what he described as a cautious response to U.S. calls for coordinated action to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
“I told him, ‘Don’t do that,’ and he won’t do that,” Trump said Thursday, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and further strikes on energy infrastructure.
Netanyahu later confirmed that Israel had acted alone in the attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field and acknowledged Trump’s request to avoid further escalation in that sector.
He added that Iran had been “decimated” and no longer possessed the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, though he suggested that any fundamental political change in Tehran would require a “ground component,” without elaborating further.
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