World
Lebanese sources: Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said gaps between the two parties have narrowed significantly but there are still steps they need to take to reach an agreement.
U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon between armed group Hezbollah and Israel imminently, four senior Lebanese sources said on Monday.
In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, “We’re close” but “nothing is done until everything is done”.
The French presidency said discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said Israel’s cabinet would meet on Tuesday to approve a truce deal with Hezbollah.
Signs of a diplomatic breakthrough were accompanied by heavy Israeli airstrikes on Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, as Israel pressed on with the offensive it launched in September after almost a year of cross-border hostilities.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the text of a deal. But the senior Israeli official told Reuters that Tuesday’s cabinet meeting was intended to approve the text.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement. Lebanon has previously objected to wording that would grant Israel such a right.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said gaps between the two parties have narrowed significantly but there are still steps they need to take to reach an agreement.
“Oftentimes the very last stages of an agreement are the most difficult because the hardest issues are left to the end,” he said. “We are pushing as hard as we can.”
Diplomacy is aimed at getting Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel to end fighting that erupted in October 2023 in parallel with Israel’s war against Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza. The conflict in Lebanon has drastically escalated over the last two months.
In Beirut, Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless Netanyahu changes his mind”.
He said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region, long a Hezbollah stronghold, within 60 days.
A sticking point over who would monitor compliance with the ceasefire was resolved in the last 24 hours with an agreement to set up a five-country committee, including France and chaired by the United States, he said.
Despite diplomatic progress, hostilities have intensified. Over the weekend, Israel carried out powerful airstrikes, one of which killed at least 29 people in central Beirut, while Hezbollah unleashed one of its biggest rocket salvoes yet on Sunday, firing 250 missiles into Israel.
In Beirut, Israeli airstrikes levelled more of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs on Monday, sending clouds of debris billowing over the Lebanese capital.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli attacks killed 31 people and wounded 62 across the country on Monday. Over the past year, more than 3,750 people have been killed and over one million have been forced from their homes, according to the ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures.
Israel has dealt major blows to Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and inflicting massive destruction in Lebanon areas where the group holds sway.
Israel says its military offensive is aimed at enabling tens of thousands of Israelis to return to homes they evacuated when Hezbollah began firing across the Lebanese border into Israel more than a year ago. Hezbollah’s campaign followed the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel that precipitated the Gaza war.
Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.
Biden’s administration, which leaves office in January, has emphasised diplomacy to end the Lebanon conflict, even as all negotiations to halt the parallel war in Gaza are frozen.
U.S. Middle East envoy Brett McGurk will be in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss using a potential Lebanon ceasefire as a catalyst for a deal ending hostilities in Gaza, the White House said.
Diplomacy over Lebanon has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km (20 miles) from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and the regular Lebanese army to enter the frontier region.
Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to implement it in the past; Israel says a new ceasefire must allow it to strike any Hezbollah fighters or weapons that remain south of the river.
An agreement could reveal rifts in Netanyahu’s right-leaning government. The far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said Israel must press on with the war until “absolute victory”. Addressing Netanyahu on X, he said, “It is not too late to stop this agreement!”
World
Trump signs order threatening tariffs on nations doing business with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that may impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
The order comes as tensions between Iran and U.S. continue to simmer even as the two countries engaged in talks this week.
World
Trump rejects Putin offer of one-year extension of New START deployment limits
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday rejected an offer from his Russian counterpart to voluntarily extend the caps on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after the treaty that held them in check for more than two decades expired.
“Rather than extend “New START … we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform, Reuters reported.
Arms control advocates warn that the expiration of the treaty will fuel an accelerated nuclear arms race, while U.S. opponents say the pact constrained the U.S. ability to deploy enough weapons to deter nuclear threats posed by both Russia and China.
Trump’s post was in response to a proposal by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to adhere for a year to the 2010 accord’s limit of 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery systems — missiles, aircraft and submarines.
New START was the last in a series of arms control treaties between the world’s two largest nuclear weapons powers dating back more than half a century to the Cold War. It allowed for only a single extension, which Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to for five years in 2021.
In his post, Trump called New START “a badly negotiated deal” that he said “is being grossly violated,” an apparent reference to Putin’s 2023 decision to halt on-site inspections and other measures designed to reassure each side that the other was complying with the treaty.
Putin cited U.S. support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion as the reason for his decision.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the U.S. would continue talks with Russia.
BOTH SIDES SIGNAL OPENNESS TO TALKS
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was still ready to engage in dialogue with the U.S. if Washington responded constructively to Putin’s proposal.
“Listen, if there are any constructive replies, of course we will conduct a dialogue,” Peskov told reporters.
The UN has urged both sides to restore the treaty.
Besides setting numerical limits on weapons, New START included inspection regimes experts say served to build a level of trust and confidence between the nuclear adversaries, helping make the world safer.
If nothing replaces the treaty, security analysts see a more dangerous environment with a higher risk of miscalculation. Forced to rely on worst-case assumptions about the other’s intentions, the U.S. and Russia would see an incentive to increase their arsenals, especially as China plays catch-up with its own rapid nuclear build-up.
Trump has said he wants to replace New START with a better deal, bringing in China. But Beijing has declined negotiations with Moscow and Washington. It has a fraction of their warhead numbers – an estimated 600, compared to around 4,000 each for Russia and the U.S.
Repeating that position on Thursday, China said the expiration of the treaty was regrettable, and urged the U.S. to resume dialogue with Russia on “strategic stability.”
UNCERTAINTY OVER TREATY EXPIRY DATE
There was confusion over the exact timing of the expiry, but Peskov said it would be at the end of Thursday.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Moscow’s assumption was that the treaty no longer applied and both sides were free to choose their next steps.
It said Russia was prepared to take “decisive military-technical countermeasures to mitigate potential additional threats to national security” but was also open to diplomacy.
That warning was in apparent response to the possibility that Trump could expand U.S. nuclear deployments by reversing steps taken to comply with New START, including reloading warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched missiles from which they were removed.
A bipartisan congressionally appointed commission in 2023 recommended that the U.S. develop plans to reload some or all of its reserve warheads, saying the country should prepare to fight simultaneous wars with Russia and China.
Ukraine, which has been at war with Russia since Moscow’s 2022 invasion, said the treaty’s expiry was a consequence of Russian efforts to achieve the “fragmentation of the global security architecture” and called it “another tool for nuclear blackmail to undermine international support for Ukraine.”
Strategic nuclear weapons are the long-range systems that each side would use to strike the other’s capital, military and industrial centres in the event of a nuclear war. They differ from so-called tactical nuclear weapons that have a lower yield and are designed for limited strikes or battlefield use.
If left unconstrained by any agreement, Russia and the U.S. could each, within a couple of years, deploy hundreds more warheads, experts say.
“Transparency and predictability are among the more intangible benefits of arms control and underpin deterrence and strategic stability,” said Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
World
US, Ukraine, Russia delegations agree to exchange 314 prisoners, says Witkoff
Delegations from the United States, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to exchange 314 prisoners, U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Thursday, adding that significant work remained to end the war.
“Today, delegations from the United States, Ukraine, and Russia agreed to exchange 314 prisoners—the first such exchange in five months,” Witkoff said in a post on X.
“This outcome was achieved from peace talks that have been detailed and productive. While significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.”
According to Reuters report, Kyiv’s lead negotiator had called the first day of new U.S.-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi “productive” on Wednesday, even as fighting in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two raged on.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said Ukraine expected the talks to lead to a new prisoner exchange.
Witkoff added on X that discussions would continue, with additional progress anticipated in the coming weeks.
The envoy did not give details on how many prisoners each country would exchange. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside regular business hours.
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