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Outlook for Afghan economy ‘dire’ as household incomes shrink: World Bank
The outlook for Afghanistan’s economy is dire with per capita income having fallen by over a third in the last four months of 2021 after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power and foreign forces withdrew, the World Bank said on Wednesday.
“One of the poorest countries in the world has become much poorer,” said Tobias Haque, World Bank Senior Country Economist for Afghanistan.
“The isolation of the Afghan economy following last August’s political crisis risks…leading to grave poverty, displacement, fragility, and extremism threats,” he told a briefing for the release of the World Bank’s first development update on the country since August Reuters reported.
The IEA takeover prompted foreign governments, led by the United States, to cut development and security aid, and the strict enforcement of sanctions has debilitated the country’s banking sector.
The World Bank update said that incomes had dropped so starkly that around 37% of Afghan households did not have enough money to cover food while 33% could afford food but nothing more, Reuters reported.
An IEA failure to meet Western conditions, in particular access to education for all girls, has led the international community to withhold international assistance and keep financial sanctions in place, with exceptions for humanitarian aid.
“Under current conditions, the outlook for Afghanistan’s economy is dire,” the World Bank said in a statement accompanying the update.
If current conditions continued, the World Bank predicted, Afghanistan’s real gross domestic produce (GDP) per capita would decline by around 34% between the end of 2020 and the end of 2022, reversing all progress since 2007.
The United States cancelled planned meetings in March, some of which would have included the World Bank, to discuss key economic issues after the IEA sent all high school-aged girls home after they had arrived ready for classes.
The U-turn angered donors, foreign governments and many Afghans as IEA officials had previously said they were opening all schools.
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Turkish intelligence captures a Daesh member near the Durand Line
Turkish intelligence agents have captured a senior member of Daesh near the Durand Line, reportedly preventing planned suicide attacks in Turkey and other countries, according to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency on Monday.
The suspect, identified as Mehmet Goren, is a Turkish citizen. He was apprehended during a covert operation and transferred to Turkey. Details on the timing of the operation or the involvement of Afghan and Pakistani authorities were not disclosed.
According to the report, Goren had risen through the ranks of Daesh and was allegedly tasked with carrying out suicide bombings in Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Europe.
Daesh has a history of deadly attacks in Turkey, including the January 1, 2017 shooting at an Istanbul nightclub that killed 39 people.
Anadolu Agency reported that Goren’s arrest also provided intelligence on the group’s recruitment strategies and planned activities.
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Dozens of needy families in Kabul receive winter aid from Bayat Foundation
Dozens of needy families in Kabul’s fifth district have received essential winter assistance from the Bayat Foundation, as part of ongoing efforts to ease hardship during the cold season and worsening economic conditions.
According to foundation officials, the aid package includes staple food items such as flour, rice, and cooking oil, along with warm blankets to help families cope with freezing temperatures. Haji Mohammad Ismail, Deputy Head of Bayat Foundation, said the distribution began in Kabul and will soon be expanded to other provinces.
“Our assistance includes flour, rice, cooking oil, and blankets,” Ismail said. “Today, we started distributing these items in Kabul’s fifth district, and God willing, the aid will reach other provinces in the near future.”
Afghanistan continues to face widespread poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity, with many families struggling to meet basic needs, particularly during winter when access to work and heating becomes more difficult.Humanitarian organizations and charitable foundations have stepped up relief efforts to support those most affected.
Beneficiaries welcomed the assistance, describing it as a lifeline. “May God bless you for helping the poor. We had nothing and no work,” said one recipient. Another added, “Thank you for your help. Our flour was almost finished.”
Bayat Foundation officials stressed that winter aid distributions will continue in Kabul and other provinces in the coming days, as part of their broader commitment to supporting needy families across the country.
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Nearly seven million Afghan refugees return home since Islamic Emirate’s takeover
Since the Islamic Emirate came to power, approximately 6.8 million Afghans have returned home, either voluntarily or forcibly, from neighboring countries and other nations, according to the Minister of Refugees and Repatriation.
Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, speaking at a meeting on finalizing a draft plan for a permanent migration solution in Afghanistan, added that 1.3 million Afghans have been internally displaced due to natural disasters during the same period.
With winter approaching, widespread poverty and severe cold are threatening thousands of lives. Meanwhile, the forced expulsion of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan, continues.
The Islamic Emirate has repeatedly urged neighboring states to allow migrants to return voluntarily. According to UNHCR, over two million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2025.
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