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Political and security uncertainty slow Afghanistan’s economic recovery

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Continued political uncertainty and a possible decline in international aid is slowing down Afghanistan’s economic recovery from COVID-19, the World Bank said Monday in its latest country update.

The World Bank’s report, Setting Course to Recovery, shows that robust agricultural growth has partially buoyed Afghanistan’s economy, which shrunk by around two percent in 2020 – a smaller contraction than previous estimates.

However, lockdowns, weak investment, and trade disruptions have hit services and industries, increasing hardship and unemployment in cities.

Growth is expected to reach one percent in 2021 and top around three percent in 2022 as the COVID-19 crisis fades. Per capita incomes are unlikely to recover to pre-COVID levels until 2025 due to fast population growth, the report noted.

“The current political and security uncertainties have created serious hurdles to Afghanistan’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. A slower pace of recovery means higher unemployment, lower government revenues, and – ultimately – more difficult living conditions for Afghans,” said Henry Kerali, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.

A full recovery will be challenging as many firms have closed and jobs were lost. Private sector confidence has weakened amid difficult security conditions, uncertainty about the outcome of the ongoing peace talks, the possible withdrawal of international troops, and potential sharp declines in future international aid support.

The report also noted that droughts are expected in 2021 and will likely reduce agricultural activity, further weakening growth prospects.

The report emphasizes that a strong and sustainable partnership between the Afghan government and its international partners is key to driving recovery and restoring private sector confidence.

In that effort, the government needs to accelerate reforms to improve governance, fight corruption, mobilize revenue, and boost business.

The report also noted that simultaneously, donors can support private sector confidence through clearer multi-year aid commitments and by defining measurable priority reforms that condition continued grant support.

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‘Made in Afghanistan’ expo opens in Tashkent

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The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment has announced that a major exhibition of Afghan products titled “Made in Afghanistan” is opening today (Wednesday) in Uzbekistan’s capital Tashkent.

According to the chamber, the expo—supported financially by the United Nations Development Programme—will run until Friday and aims to showcase Afghanistan’s production and export potential.

More than 60 booths have been set up by Afghan traders, featuring a wide range of products including carpets, dried and fresh fruits, saffron, pine nuts, cotton, precious and semi-precious stones, as well as beverages.

Officials from the chamber expressed hope that the expo will help expand trade relations between Afghanistan and countries in the region, particularly Uzbekistan.

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Afghani strengthens nearly 10% against US dollar amid banking sector reforms

The bank said it has expanded oversight of financial institutions and private lenders, improving transparency and promoting more consistent standards across the sector.

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Afghanistan’s central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank, says the national currency has appreciated by 9.93% against the US dollar during the year 1404, citing steady progress in the country’s financial and banking systems.

Officials attributed the gains to cautious monetary policies that have helped stabilise the Afghani against major global currencies while also boosting its value against the dollar.

The bank said it has expanded oversight of financial institutions and private lenders, improving transparency and promoting more consistent standards across the sector.

As part of efforts to better manage liquidity, authorities also collected and destroyed worn-out banknotes in circulation. At the same time, officials reported growth in electronic banking, with digital payment usage rising in recent months.

Central bank spokesperson Haseebullah Noori said initiatives are underway to broaden access to banking services nationwide, including the wider rollout of Islamic banking options.

Analysts welcomed the stabilisation efforts but stressed the need to address ongoing challenges facing domestic banks, including the impact of international financial sanctions on Afghanistan.

They added that expanding Islamic banking could help draw more savings into the formal financial system, noting that a significant share of personal wealth remains outside banks. Bringing those funds into the sector, they said, could inject billions of Afghanis into the economy and further support financial stability.

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Uzbekistan delivers over 290 tons of aid to Afghanistan

The assistance, provided ahead of Eid al-Fitr, is intended to support vulnerable communities while reinforcing ties between the neighboring countries.

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Uzbekistan has delivered more than 290 tons of humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, according to the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The assistance, provided ahead of Eid al-Fitr, is intended to support vulnerable communities while reinforcing ties between the neighboring countries.

The shipment includes essential food supplies such as flour, rice, wheat, vegetable oil, instant meals, pasta, and confectionery. An official handover ceremony was held in the border town of Hairatan.

Local officials, including Balkh province representatives and authorities from Hairatan, expressed appreciation for the continued support, acknowledging Uzbekistan’s efforts to assist the Afghan people.

Among those present at the ceremony were Uzbekistan’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, Oybek Usmanov, and Surkhandarya regional governor Ulugbek Kosimov.

The aid delivery underscores Uzbekistan’s ongoing humanitarian engagement and its broader efforts to promote regional cooperation and stability.

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