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World Bank predicts Afghan economic growth 3.3% this year
Afghanistan’s economy grew by an estimated 2.9 percent in 2019, driven mainly by strong agricultural growth following recovery from drought, but lingering political uncertainty dampens private confidence and investment, says the World Bank.
Released today, “Navigating a Sea of Uncertainty”, the latest edition of the twice-a-year Afghanistan Development Update examines recent key economic developments and focuses on the impacts of current uncertainties around the outcome of the September 2019 presidential election, levels of future international civilian and security support, and the prospect of a peace agreement with the Taliban. The Update also includes a special topic reflecting on achievement of development outcomes since 2001.
“Growth picked up in Afghanistan in 2019. This is good news, but insecurity and political uncertainty are holding back the Afghan economy,” said World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan Henry Kerali. “Afghanistan needs to ramp up the pace of reforms to generate faster growth necessary to improve the living standards of its people and reduce poverty.”
The report notes that as drought impacts further recede and private sector confidence improves following the conclusion of the presidential election, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2020. Over the medium-term, growth is projected to hover around 4 percent provided that the security situation does not further deteriorate and that international aid support continues. Growth prospects are subject to other significant downside risks, including further political instability, unexpected cuts in foreign aid, and adverse regional developments.
Domestic revenue collection reached a new high of 14.5 percent of GDP in 2019, up from 13.3 percent in 2018. Strong revenue performance reflected both progress in establishing a robust tax system and substantial one-off revenues, including transfers from the Da Afghanistan Bank.
The potential for much-faster growth exists but remains dependent on continued support from the international community and the Afghan government’s commitment to pushing business environment and anti-corruption reforms, the report says.
“The international community needs to maintain its support to Afghanistan over the medium-term to sustain the country’s recent development progress and help realize its long-term growth and self-reliance prospects. In this effort, the Afghan government needs to assure its international partners that progress is being made on governance and that aid resources are used efficiently,” said Kerali.
To improve confidence in the short-term, the Development Update notes the need for Government to accelerate improvements in the business environment and anti-corruption reforms.
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Ministries of Public Health and Higher Education sign cooperation agreement
The Ministry of Public Health announced on Tuesday it has signed a cooperation agreement with the Ministry of Higher Education aimed at expanding scientific, research, educational, and technical cooperation.
At the signing ceremony held in Kabul, Noor Jalal Jalali, Minister of Public Health, said that the agreement would lead to significant improvements in the capacity-building of students and doctors, ensure that research is conducted based on evidence, and enable the collection of accurate data.
Meanwhile, Neda Mohammad Nadeem, Minister of Higher Education, described the agreement as beneficial to the public and to both institutions, stressing the need to train individuals at universities who can contribute to social development and make the country self-sufficient in the public health sector.
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UNAMA holds new round of Working Group meetings on counter-narcotics and private sector
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has convened a new round of Doha Process Working Group meetings focusing on counter-narcotics and private sector development.
The meetings, held in Kabul on February 3 and 9, brought together representatives of UN member states and international organizations, officials of the Islamic Emirate, and subject-matter experts.
According to UNAMA, discussions in the counter-narcotics working group centered on efforts by Islamic Emirate authorities and the international community to support alternative livelihoods for Afghans previously dependent on poppy cultivation and the illicit opium trade. Participants also reviewed drug-use prevention and treatment initiatives, as well as law-enforcement measures to curb narcotics production and trafficking.
The private sector working group focused on job creation and entrepreneurship, with particular attention to women’s participation in the private sector, market integration, access to finance, and the development of private banking and financial infrastructure.
UNAMA said both working groups identified priority areas for enhanced engagement and explored more effective and sustainable approaches to supporting Afghan men and women. Participants also examined the linkages between the two areas, noting that private sector development is a key source of livelihoods, while counter-narcotics efforts contribute to Afghanistan’s economic and social stability.
The working groups were established following the third Meeting of Special Envoys held in Doha, Qatar, in June and July 2024, in line with recommendations of the Independent Assessment endorsed by the UN Security Council. The process aims to promote more coherent, coordinated, and structured engagement with Afghanistan’s de facto authorities for the benefit of the Afghan people.
UNAMA added that stakeholders engage in the working groups on an ongoing basis, with full-format meetings convened periodically. Since their establishment, the groups have improved information-sharing, helped mobilize additional resources, and facilitated expert exchanges to strengthen support for the Afghan people.
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Economic Commission approves national policy for development of agriculture
At a regular meeting of the Economic Commission chaired by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, the National Policy for the Development of the Agriculture and Livestock Sector was approved.
According to a statement from the deputy PM’s office, the key objectives of the policy include the mechanization of the agriculture and livestock sector; development of agricultural, irrigation, and livestock research and extension systems; management of irrigation systems; support for investment in these sectors; and ensuring public access to high-quality agricultural and animal products.
During the same meeting, the development plan for the fish farming sector was also approved.
Under this plan, through private sector investment, 7,700 small, medium, and large fish production and farming facilities will be established on 6,500 hectares of land in various parts of the country.
The statement added that the implementation of this plan will create direct employment opportunities for 50,000 people and indirect employment for 250,000 others.
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