World
US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report
U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.
With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.
The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
SHIFTING OBJECTIVES
Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.
The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.
Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.
Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.
It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.
It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.
INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive U.S. support.
Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.
The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.
World
As many as 150 US troops wounded so far in Iran war: report
As many as 150 U.S. troops have been wounded in the 10-day-old war with Iran, Reuters reported citing two people familiar with the matter.
The casualty figure has not been previously reported. Prior to Reuters’ publication of the figure, the Pentagon had only disclosed eight U.S. personnel seriously injured.
In a statement after Reuters published its report, the Pentagon estimated the figure to be approximately 140 wounded and said the vast majority of them were minor.
“Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, approximately 140 U.S. service members have been wounded over 10 days of sustained attacks,” said chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
He said 108 of the wounded service members had already returned to duty.
Parnell said the eight seriously wounded service members were receiving the highest level of medical care.
Reuters could not determine the types of injuries and whether they include traumatic brain injuries, which are common after exposure to blasts.
Iran has launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. military bases since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28. It has also struck diplomatic missions in Arab Gulf states as well as hotels and airports and damaged oil infrastructure.
The Pentagon says the number of Iranian strikes has fallen sharply since the start of the war, as the U.S. military bombs Iran’s weapons inventories and targets Iran’s more limited number of missile launchers.
Asked if Iran was a stronger adversary than he expected when the U.S. military drew up its war plans, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters earlier on Tuesday that the fight was not harder than expected.
“I think they’re fighting, and I respect that, but I don’t think they are more formidable than what we thought,” Caine told a Pentagon briefing.
World
Trump tells Fox News it’s possible he would talk with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump told Fox News that it’s possible he would be willing to talk with Iran but that it depends on the terms, the cable news network said on Tuesday.
Asked in an interview on Monday evening about the possibility of negotiations with Tehran, Trump told Fox he heard Tehran wanted to talk badly, according to the news network.
The Republican president also reiterated his unhappiness with Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, telling Fox: “I don’t believe he can live in peace.”
Trump also echoed his comments at a press conference earlier on Monday, telling Fox the results of the U.S. military operation in Iran were “way beyond expectation.”
Trump added that he was surprised that Iran was striking Gulf countries with missiles and drones, according to the network.
World
Israel presses Iran assault as Tehran nears succession decision
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was not interested in negotiating an end to the conflict that has sent energy prices skyward, hurt business and snarled global travel.
Israeli forces expanded their bombardment of Iran overnight, striking fuel depots near Tehran, while Bahrain said an Iranian attack had damaged one of its desalination plants, signalling a widening assault on vital infrastructure across the region.
As the fighting escalated on day nine of the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran, Tehran moved closer to naming a new supreme leader after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with every indication suggesting his powerful son could take charge.
Israel’s military threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while U.S. President Donald Trump said the war might only end once Iran’s military and rulers had been wiped out.
The governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain reported Iranian drone attacks in their countries on Saturday and early Sunday, with a huge fire engulfing a government office block in Kuwait.
Kuwait’s interior ministry said two of its officers were killed “while performing duties”.
Bahrain said on Sunday that an Iranian drone attack had caused “material damage” to a desalination plant, though the country’s electricity and water authority said the strike had not disrupted water supplies.
Video from Tehran showed thick, choking black smoke hanging over the city early on Sunday after strikes on oil storage facilities, had lit up the night sky with plumes of orange flame.
An Israeli source said the fuel was used to manufacture and develop weapons and to operate military bases. Iran’s oil distribution company said four of its employees were killed in the blitz, adding that rationing would be introduced temporarily in some areas “to ensure fair and sustainable supplies”.
Shortly after the attack, which appeared to mark a new phase in the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government would press on with the assault and strike Iran’s rulers “without mercy”.
“We have an organised plan with many surprises to destabilise the regime and enable change,” he said in a video statement. “We have many more targets.”
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was not interested in negotiating an end to the conflict that has sent energy prices skyward, hurt business and snarled global travel.
“At some point, I don’t think there will be anybody left maybe to say, ‘We surrender’,” Trump said.
It was the first time an Arab country has said Iran targeted a desalination facility during the conflict. On Saturday, Iran said a U.S. attack had struck a freshwater desalination plant on its Qeshm Island, disrupting water supplies in 30 villages, calling it “a dangerous move with grave consequences”.
Saudi Arabia has told Tehran that continued Iranian attacks on the kingdom and its energy sector could push Riyadh to respond in kind, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
In an apparent attempt to cool anger across the Gulf, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised to neighbouring states for its attacks on U.S. bases in those countries on Saturday.
His comments faced backlash from some hardliners in Iran, prompting his office to reiterate Iran’s military would respond firmly to attacks from U.S. facilities.
The clerical body charged with choosing Iran’s next supreme leader could meet as soon as Sunday to name a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an attack early in the conflict, Iranian media reported.
A majority consensus over the successor has more or less been reached, said Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Mohammadmehdi Mirbaqeri, according to the Mehr news agency.
Another member of the council, Ayatollah Mohsen Heidari Alekasir, said in a video that a candidate had been selected based on Khamenei’s guidance that Iran’s top leader should be “hated by the enemy”.
Two Iranian sources told Reuters last week that the clear favourite was Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who amassed power under his father as a senior figure in the security forces and the vast business empire they control. Choosing him would send a signal that hardliners were still firmly in charge.
Trump has justified the biggest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq by saying Tehran posed an imminent threat to the United States, without providing evidence. He has also said Iran was too close to being able to build a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium at a later stage of the war, Axios reported, citing four people with knowledge of the discussions.
Asked about the possibility of sending ground troops to secure nuclear sites on Saturday, Trump said it was something they could do “later on.”
The U.S.-Israeli attacks have killed at least 1,332 Iranian civilians and wounded thousands, according to Iran’s U.N. ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani.
Iranian attacks have killed 10 people in Israel. At least six U.S. service members have been killed, with Iran saying on Sunday it had struck U.S. bases in Kuwait.
Lebanon has also been pulled into the conflict after the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah fired rockets and drones into Israel last week.
At least four people were killed when Israel hit a hotel building in central Beirut early on Sunday, with Israel saying it had targeted Iranian commanders operating in the Lebanese capital. It was the first such strike in the heart of Beirut, prompting fears Israel would expand its attacks to areas beyond where Hezbollah traditionally operates.
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