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US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report

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U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three ​sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion ​of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also ​have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that ⁠the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The ​White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SHIFTING OBJECTIVES

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and ​members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that ​controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a ‌fourth source ⁠familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services ​there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the ​government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the ⁠Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive ​U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases ​and barracks out of fear ⁠of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs ⁠the autonomous region ​of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for ​comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday ​that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

World

US judge rejects Trump administration’s halt on immigration applications

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A federal judge on Thursday ruled that policies that make it harder for ‌people from countries on President Donald Trump’s travel ban list to get green cards and work permits are discriminatory and unlawful.

U.S. District Judge Julia Kobick in Boston reached that conclusion as she issued a preliminary injunction in a lawsuit by around ​200 people from 20 countries including Iran, Haiti, Venezuela and Syria who sued over a halt ​on the processing of their immigration-related applications, Reuters reported.

The lawsuit, filed in December, took aim at ⁠policies U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services adopted beginning in November affecting applications by immigrants seeking asylum, green ​cards and work authorization.

Those policies have resulted in the agency placing a hold on the processing of applications ​from people from the 39 countries that are the subject of full or partial travel bans imposed by Trump, who has cited vetting and security concerns.

Before instituting that halt, the agency, which is overseen by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, adopted ​a policy in November 2025 that treats the nationality of people from those countries as a “significant negative ​factor” when reviewing their applications.

Kobick, who was appointed by Democratic President Joe Biden, concluded the plaintiffs were likely to succeed ‌in proving ⁠that policy ran afoul of the Immigration and Nationality Act’s bar against nationality-based discrimination.

The judge said the agency’s subsequent halt on reviewing asylum and naturalization applications was likewise “contrary to Congress’s command that the agency issue decisions on such applications.” She said the pause on reviewing green card and work authorization applications violated regulations ​governing them.

Kobick blocked USCIS from ​enforcing the policies against ⁠22 plaintiffs who had provided declarations detailing how they were harmed by them, and she directed the parties to discuss whether her order should apply to the ​rest of the 200.

Jim Hacking, ​a lawyer ⁠for the plaintiffs, welcomed the ruling, which he said appeared to be the first by a judge nationally to address the “significant negative factor” policy alongside the separate but related hold on the processing of applications. A handful ⁠of other ​judges have previously ruled against that halt in some migrants’ cases.

“USCIS ​wants to make it harder for people to receive an immigration benefit if they are from one of the 39 countries, even ​though Congress has never allowed them to,” he said.

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US war in Iran has cost $25 billion so far, says Pentagon official

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers that the cost was justified given the U.S. goal of ensuring Iran will ​not have a nuclear weapon.

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The United States’ war in Iran has ​cost $25 billion so far, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday, providing the first official estimate of the military’s ‌price tag for the conflict, Reuters reported.

With just six months before midterm elections in which President Donald Trump’s Republicans may face an uphill battle to keep their House majority, Democrats are riding high in public opinion polls as they attempt to link the unpopular Iran war with affordability.

Jules Hurst, who is performing the duties of the ​comptroller, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee that most of that money was for munitions.

Hurst did not detail ​what that cost estimate included and whether it took into account the projected costs of rebuilding and repairing ⁠base infrastructure in the Middle East damaged in the conflict.

Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, responded to ​Hurst: “I’m glad you answered that question. Because we’ve been asking for a hell of a long time, and no one’s given us the ​number.”

The $25 billion cost is equal to the entire budget of NASA for this year.

But it is unclear how the Pentagon arrived at the $25 billion amount given that a source had told Reuters last month that President Donald Trump’s administration estimated that the first six days of the war had cost the United States at ​least $11.3 billion.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers that the cost was justified given the U.S. goal of ensuring Iran will ​not have a nuclear weapon.

“What would you pay to ensure Iran does not get a nuclear bomb? What would you pay?” Hegseth asked.

Hegseth sought to defend ‌the ⁠Iran war more broadly in fiery remarks, saying it was not a quagmire and attacking Democratic lawmakers as “feckless” for criticizing the unpopular conflict.

“You call it a quagmire, handing propaganda to our enemies? Shame on you for that statement,” Hegseth said in response to Garamendi, and slammed “reckless, feckless, and defeatist” Congressional Democrats.

The United States started carrying out strikes against Iran on February 28 and the two sides are currently maintaining a fragile ​ceasefire. The Pentagon has poured tens of ​thousands of additional forces into ⁠the Middle East, including keeping three aircraft carriers in the region, read the report.

Thirteen U.S. troops have been killed in the conflict and hundreds wounded.

Few issues resonate with U.S. voters more deeply than price increases, and the latest ​inflationary upswing is unsettling Republican insiders worried about their party’s prospects before November elections that will determine control ​of the House ⁠and possibly the Senate.

Disruptions in shipments of oil and natural gas since the war started have caused a run-up in U.S. gasoline prices and agricultural products such as fertilizers, on top of the long list of other high consumer prices.

The average U.S. gasoline price on Tuesday rose to its highest ⁠level in ​nearly four years, according to data from the American Automobile Association.

Trump’s popularity has taken ​a beating since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran.

Just 34% of Americans approve of the U.S. conflict with Iran, down from 36% in mid-April and 38% ​in mid-March, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

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Trump rejects latest Iranian proposal to end war, US official says

According to officials familiar with the discussions, Iran’s latest plan would delay talks over its nuclear program until after the fighting ends and maritime disputes in the Gulf are resolved.

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U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly dissatisfied with Iran’s latest proposal aimed at ending the two-month conflict between the two countries, according to a U.S. official, raising fresh doubts over prospects for a ceasefire.

The renewed diplomatic setback comes as the war continues to disrupt global energy markets, drive inflation concerns and deepen regional instability.

According to officials familiar with the discussions, Iran’s latest plan would delay talks over its nuclear program until after the fighting ends and maritime disputes in the Gulf are resolved.

That approach is believed to have angered Trump, whose administration insists that any agreement must address Iran’s nuclear activities from the outset.

A U.S. official briefed on a Monday meeting between Trump and senior advisers said the president was unhappy with the proposal because it postponed one of Washington’s core demands.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales declined to discuss negotiations publicly, saying the United States “will not negotiate through the press” and had already made its red lines clear.

Iranian officials say their proposal envisions a phased process beginning with an immediate end to U.S. and Israeli military operations, followed by guarantees against renewed attacks.

The next stage would address the U.S. naval blockade and the future of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes.

Only after those issues are settled would broader negotiations begin on Tehran’s nuclear program, including Iran’s demand for recognition of its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.

Iran has long maintained that its nuclear activities are peaceful.

Diplomatic Efforts Continue

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has recently travelled to Pakistan, Oman and Russia in an effort to build support for negotiations.

During a visit to Moscow, Araqchi met President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly offered diplomatic backing.

Planned peace talks in Islamabad were also dealt a blow after Trump cancelled a proposed visit by special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner.

With no clear breakthrough in sight, oil prices rose again in Asian trading on Tuesday as traders focused on continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ship-tracking data indicated that maritime traffic through the chokepoint has dropped sharply since the conflict began, with several tankers reportedly turned back in recent days.

Before the war, more than 120 vessels passed through the strait daily. Analysts say that number has fallen dramatically, increasing pressure on global energy supplies.

Trump is also facing growing domestic pressure to end the war, particularly as economic concerns mount and public support weakens.

Iranian officials say Washington has failed to meet its military objectives, while the White House insists pressure will continue until U.S. demands are met.

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