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Afghanistan’s growth prospects remain uncertain amid global uncertainty: World Bank report

According to the report, in Afghanistan, despite aid cuts, the economy is estimated to have grown by 2.5 percent in FY24-25, which was slower than the pace of population growth.

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Amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy, South Asia’s growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded in most countries in the region, including Afghanistan.

Stepping up domestic revenue mobilization could help the region strengthen fragile fiscal positions and increase resilience against future shocks, said the World Bank in its twice-yearly regional outlook – the South Asia Development Update – which was released on Wednesday.

According to the report, in Afghanistan, despite aid cuts, the economy is estimated to have grown by 2.5 percent in FY24-25, which was slower than the pace of population growth.

Growth is forecast to increase only moderately to 2.2 percent in 2025/26, the World Bank report stated.

Coinciding with the release of the South Asia report was the World Bank’s Afghanistan Development Update report which explained the situation in more detail.

Stating that while the country’s economy is gradually recovering, the outlook remains uncertain due to growing fiscal pressures, a widening trade deficit and persistent poverty and food insecurity.

The report stated that these factors continue to strain households and hinder inclusive growth.

However, Afghanistan recorded its second consecutive year of growth in 2024, the World Bank stated, adding that the recovery was largely driven by the agriculture sector.

Manufacturing and services remained subdued due to an unfavorable business environment, persistent export barriers and declining foreign aid.

Modest gains in private consumption and real estate investment contributed to growth, the report stated, adding that rising imports widened the trade deficit, increasing external vulnerabilities.

At the same time, rapid population growth and the return of refugees continue to strain job creation and public service delivery, further deepening the fragility of the economy.

Deflation meanwhile persisted in 2024, with food prices having declined sharply. Non-food inflation remained stable. Persistent deflation continued in 2024,

Poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition however remained pressing challenges and despite modest wage growth, high unemployment and restrictions on women continue to strain livelihoods, the report stated.

Early this year, 14.8 million people faced food shortages, while acute malnutrition – now affecting 4.7 million women and children – is worsening. The World Bank warned that without urgent action, human capital development will be further undermined.

Fiscal pressures meanwhile remained high as domestic revenue mobilization, though relatively strong, is insufficient to offset the sharp decline in aid.

The report also stated that exports declined in 2024, while imports surged – widening the trade deficit.

The increase in imports however was driven by rising industrial demand and substitution of domestic consumer goods.

The afghani (AFN) currency, which had appreciated significantly in 2023 due to strong foreign inflows stabilized with slight depreciation in 2024 but the banking sector remained fragile.

The World Bank reported that economic growth is expected to slow to 2.2 percent in 2025 amid aid disruptions, before gradually recovering to 2.5 percent in 2026–27.

The organization however warned that while Afghanistan’s youth remain a vital source of resilience and untapped potential, urgent action to expand job opportunities for them is needed.

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Mahirood Customs leads Iran’s exports to Afghanistan

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

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Mahirood Customs in South Khorasan province has become Iran’s main export gateway to Afghanistan, accounting for 36 percent of the country’s total exports to its eastern neighbor, Iranian officials said.

South Khorasan Governor Seyed Mohammadreza Hashemi told local media that Mahirood ranked first among Iran’s 71 active customs points during the first eight months of the current Iranian year.

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

Official customs figures show that Iran’s total exports to Afghanistan exceeded 4.26 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with Mahirood handling the largest share, Hashemi said.

He attributed the strong performance to South Khorasan’s strategic location, improved border infrastructure, effective planning, close cooperation with traders, and coordinated efforts by government agencies.

Hashemi said the expansion of exports via Mahirood Customs is contributing to economic growth, job creation, and stronger economic diplomacy for the province.

He added that continued support for exporters and streamlined customs procedures could further increase South Khorasan’s share of the Afghan market and other target markets in the future.

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Afghanistan, India discuss expanding investment opportunities

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Abdul Mateen Saeed, Deputy Minister for Customs and Revenue at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, has held talks with a delegation of Indian investors on potential investment opportunities in the country.

In a statement, the Ministry of Finance said Saeed highlighted the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s recent measures to facilitate trade and investment, noting that additional incentives for traders and industrialists are also being developed.

He emphasized that bilateral relations between Afghanistan and India—particularly in trade and investment—are gradually strengthening.

The Indian investors expressed readiness to invest in several priority sectors, including the manufacture of medicines for human, agricultural and veterinary use, the introduction of modern technologies in agriculture and mining, and the implementation of capacity-building programs for Afghan professionals.

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

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Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.

However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.

On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.

The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.

Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.

The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.

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