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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden
With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.
Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.
Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”
Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”
He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”
“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.
“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.
“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.
Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.
“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.
Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.
“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.
If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.
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Nearly seven million Afghan refugees return home since Islamic Emirate’s takeover
Since the Islamic Emirate came to power, approximately 6.8 million Afghans have returned home, either voluntarily or forcibly, from neighboring countries and other nations, according to the Minister of Refugees and Repatriation.
Mawlawi Abdul Kabir, speaking at a meeting on finalizing a draft plan for a permanent migration solution in Afghanistan, added that 1.3 million Afghans have been internally displaced due to natural disasters during the same period.
With winter approaching, widespread poverty and severe cold are threatening thousands of lives. Meanwhile, the forced expulsion of Afghan migrants from neighboring countries, particularly Iran and Pakistan, continues.
The Islamic Emirate has repeatedly urged neighboring states to allow migrants to return voluntarily. According to UNHCR, over two million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan since the start of 2025.
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Only one of three Afghan suspects was on US terror watch list of 18,000
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has identified nearly 2,000 Afghans with suspected terror ties and continues to share intelligence with law enforcement agencies.
U.S. authorities are reviewing a classified terror watch list of about 18,000 people after it emerged that only one of three Afghan nationals arrested in recent high-profile cases was on the list, the New York Post reported, citing an intelligence source.
According to the NY Post, the revelation has raised concerns that some suspects may have been radicalized after arriving in the United States. The issue gained renewed attention following last month’s shooting of National Guard members in Washington, DC.
National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent told lawmakers at a December 11 hearing that around 18,000 known or suspected terrorists entered the U.S. over a four-year period under the previous administration. Since then, officials have been combing through the database to assess potential threats and examine how certain individuals were admitted into the country.
Jaan Shah Safi was the only one of three recently arrested Afghan nationals listed in the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment (TIDE), the U.S. government’s central terror database. Safi, who arrived in the U.S. in 2021 under Operation Allies Welcome, is accused of providing weapons and other support to ISIS-K. U.S. officials say he remains in ICE custody pending removal proceedings.
The other two suspects — Rahmanullah Lakanwal, charged with killing a National Guard member in Washington, and Mohammad Dawood Alokozay of Texas, accused of threatening a suicide attack — were not on the watch list, according to the Post. Intelligence officials cited in the report said this suggests they may have been radicalized after entering the United States.
The Post said the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has identified nearly 2,000 Afghans with suspected terror ties and continues to share intelligence with law enforcement agencies.
The issue has reignited debate over the vetting process used during the rapid evacuation of Afghans in 2021, when more than 100,000 people were brought to the United States.
Lawmakers and officials quoted by the New York Post called for closer scrutiny of those admitted during that period, amid growing political and public concern over national security and immigration policy.
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Afghanistan signs 30-year deal for marble mining in Daikundi
The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum of Afghanistan has signed a 30-year agreement with a private company to extract marble in Daikundi province.
Under the contract, the company will invest AFN 283 million in exploring and mining marble at the “Mesh-Uliya” site, spanning 16.74 square kilometers in central Daikundi.
Hedayatullah Badri, Minister of Mines and Petroleum, stated that the marble will be processed domestically before being exported abroad. He added that the Mesh-Uliya project is expected to create around 200 jobs, and the company is committed to supporting local communities through social initiatives.
Economic experts highlight that such investments, especially those focusing on domestic processing, are crucial for job creation, boosting exports, and strengthening the national economy. Analysts further note that the project will improve local infrastructure, expand social services, and enhance the economic and social well-being of Daikundi residents.
Since the return of the Islamic Emirate to power, efforts to develop Afghanistan’s mining sector have intensified, with multiple contracts signed in areas including cement, copper, iron, and lapis lazuli, involving both domestic and international companies.
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