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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden
With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.
Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.
Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”
Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”
He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”
“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.
“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.
“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.
Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.
“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.
Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.
“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.
If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.
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Airstrike on Kabul drug rehabilitation centre sparks legal concerns
Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for Research, Isabelle Lassee, said the scale of casualties suggests the presence of a significant civilian population at the site.
An airstrike on a drug rehabilitation facility in Kabul has drawn sharp criticism from Amnesty International, raising serious questions about compliance with international humanitarian law.
The strike, carried out on 16 March, targeted a site at Camp Phoenix, a former military base that has functioned largely as a rehabilitation centre since 2016. Pakistani officials have claimed the attack was aimed at an ammunition depot allegedly located within the compound.
Responding to those claims, Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for Research, Isabelle Lassee, said the scale of casualties suggests the presence of a significant civilian population at the site.
“While the total number of casualties has yet to be independently verified, it is clear that the attack caused extensive civilian harm, with reports indicating hundreds killed or injured,” she said.
Lassee emphasized that the facility was widely known to house civilians undergoing treatment, and warned that any military action should have taken this into account. “Pakistan’s military should have taken all feasible precautions to avoid harming civilians and civilian infrastructure,” she added.
She further noted that even if a military target had been present within the compound, international law requires that any strike be proportionate, ensuring that civilian harm is not excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage.
“The scale of destruction raises serious concerns about whether an adequate proportionality assessment was conducted and whether sufficient steps were taken to verify the target and minimize civilian casualties,” Lassee said.
Amnesty International has called on Pakistani authorities to disclose the intelligence behind the strike and to launch an independent, impartial, and transparent investigation into the incident. The organization stressed that findings should be made public to ensure accountability.
The group also urged all parties involved in the conflict to adhere strictly to international humanitarian law and to protect civilian infrastructure, including medical and rehabilitation facilities.
The airstrike formed part of Pakistan’s “Operation Ghazab Lil Haq,” which included strikes in both Kabul and Nangarhar Province. The targeted rehabilitation centre, known as Omid, reportedly had the capacity to accommodate around 2,000 individuals.
Casualty figures remain contested. Islamic Emirate officials claim more than 400 civilians were killed and over 200 injured, though these numbers have not been independently verified. The United Nations has so far confirmed 143 deaths.
The strike comes amid escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, at least 76 civilian casualties had already been recorded since the conflict intensified in February.
Pakistani officials, meanwhile, reported civilian casualties on their side of the border, including four deaths in Bajaur district on 15 March and the killing of a child in North Waziristan earlier in the month, allegedly due to cross-border fire from Afghanistan.
The latest developments underscore growing concerns about civilian safety as hostilities between the two countries continue to intensify.
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Afghanistan expresses condolences after deadly helicopter crash in Qatar
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Pakistan seeks Russian mediation to resolve Afghanistan tensions
Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Faisal Niaz Tirmizi, has confirmed that Islamabad has asked Moscow to mediate in the ongoing conflict with Afghanistan.
In an interview with Russian daily Izvestia, Tirmizi said Pakistan is engaging with Russia and appreciates the “wonderful offer” to help resolve tensions. He noted that proposals from Russia, China, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia led to an agreement on a temporary ceasefire.
“We tell all our interlocutors: please tell the Taliban (IEA) not to use this opportunity simply to regroup, recuperate, rearm, and re-attack,” Tirmizi said. “Because such large states as Russia or Pakistan cannot be destabilized by terrorist acts.”
The ambassador emphasized that decades of war in Afghanistan have affected not only Kabul and Islamabad but also neighboring countries, including Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and even Russia. “Therefore, we must all trade with each other, develop education, art, and culture. Terrorism is the wrong way to go,” he added.
The appeal for mediation comes amid rising cross-Durand Line tensions and violence that have killed hundreds and displaced thousands in recent weeks.
Pakistani officials have repeatedly claimed that militant attacks in the country are organized in Afghanistan.
The IEA however denies the claim saying that Afghanistan is not responsible for Pakistan’s “security failure.”
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