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Experts say Europe faces ‘unprecedented risk’ of a gas shortage

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Europe faces “unprecedented risks” to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments, the International Energy Agency said Monday, warning that European nations could wind up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that comes by ship.

The Paris-based IEA said in its quarterly gas report that the European Union’s 27 countries would need to reduce natural gas use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cutoff amid the war in Ukraine. Much of that cutback would have to come from consumer behavior such as turning down thermostats by 1 degree and adjusting boiler temperatures as well as industrial and utility conservation, the group said, AP reported.

The EU on Friday agreed to mandate a reduction in electricity consumption by at least 5% during peak price hours.

Just a trickle of Russian gas is still arriving in pipelines through Ukraine to Slovakia and across the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria. Two other routes, under the Baltic Sea to Germany and through Belarus and Poland, have shut down.

Another hazard highlighted by the study was a late winter cold snap, which would be particularly challenging because underground gas reserves flow more slowly at the end of the season due to less gas and lower pressure in the storage caverns. The EU has already filled storage to 88%, ahead of its goal of 80% before winter. The IEA assumed 90% would be needed in its Russian gas cutoff scenario.

Businesses in Europe have already cut back natural gas use, sometimes simply by abandoning energy-intensive activity such as making steel and fertilizer, while smaller businesses like bakeries are feeling a severe crimp in their costs.

High prices for natural gas, which is used for heating homes, generating electricity and a host of industrial processes, are fueling record consumer inflation of 10% in the 19 EU nations that use the shared euro currency. The high energy prices are sapping so much consumer purchasing power that economists predict a recession at the end of this year and the beginning of next.

European governments and utilities have made up much of the Russian shortfall by purchasing expensive supplies of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that comes by ship from countries such as the U.S. and Qatar and by obtaining increased pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan.

The goal is to prevent storage levels from falling so far that governments must ration gas to businesses. Gas storage must remain above 33% for a secure winter, according to the IEA, while levels below that risk shortages if there’s a late cold snap.

Lower levels also would make it harder for Europe to refill storage next summer, while higher reserves from conservation would help lower extremely high energy prices.

French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne on Monday played down concerns of gas shortages, saying her country has diversified its supplies and stocked up “to the maximum.”

“We are ready to face this winter,” she told France’s lower house of parliament. Reiterating her government’s drive for energy saving, Borne added there are no risks of energy cuts in coming months “if everyone plays their part.”

European leaders say the cutback in Russian gas is energy blackmail aimed at pressuring governments over their support for Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow.

Since Russia halted gas flows this month through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline running under the Baltic Sea to Germany, it and the parallel Nord Stream 2 — built but never operated after Germany refused to certify it — were damaged in underwater explosions that European governments say are sabotage.

Demand for liquefied gas has driven up prices and tightened supply to the extent that poorer countries in Asia cannot afford it. Bangladesh is experiencing widespread power blackouts, while Pakistan faces rolling blackouts and has introduced reduced working hours so shops and factories can save electricity.

“Inter-regional competition in LNG procurement may create further tensions, as additional European needs would put more pressure on other buyers, especially in Asia, and conversely cold spells in Northeast Asia could limit Europe’s access to LNG,” the agency said.

The gas crisis in Europe has also deprived Asian countries of the limited number of floating regasification terminals, which were expected to play a major role in LNG imports in Southeast Asia. Europe has secured 12 of the vessels and plans another nine.

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Afghanistan seeks expanded ties with Russia in energy, mining and infrastructure

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

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Afghanistan has expressed strong interest in broadening trade and economic cooperation with Russia, with a particular focus on energy, mining and infrastructure projects, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

In an interview with TASS, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Moscow, Gul Hassan, said Kabul is keen to import oil and gas from Russia as part of efforts to deepen bilateral economic ties.

He noted that trade relations between the two countries are progressing and that, if key obstacles—especially banking restrictions—are addressed, Afghanistan could also import medicines, industrial goods, grain, vegetable oils and other commodities from Russia.

In return, the ambassador said Afghanistan is ready to export fresh and dried fruits, vegetables, medicinal plants, carpets and mineral resources to the Russian market, adding that expanding export-import operations could significantly increase bilateral trade volumes.

He also revealed plans to open an exhibition of Afghan products in Moscow, which he said would help boost trade turnover.

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

Hassan described the economy as a central pillar of Afghanistan’s foreign policy, emphasizing the government’s goal of positioning the country as a key link in regional economic integration and attracting foreign investment.

He noted that Russian companies have long shown interest in Afghanistan’s industrial, mining and infrastructure sectors.

The ambassador further told TASS that Russian firms are already in talks with relevant Afghan authorities on the construction of small hydroelectric power plants.

Representatives of several Russian companies have reportedly visited Afghanistan and held meetings with officials and technical experts.

According to Hassan, practical steps toward cooperation in the energy and power generation sectors are expected in the near future, pointing to a potential new phase in Afghan-Russian economic relations.

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Pakistan, China plan to extend CPEC to Afghanistan, revive trilateral framework

The proposed CPEC expansion into Afghanistan is seen as a move to enhance regional economic integration amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

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Pakistan and China are moving forward with plans to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, a strategic step aimed at bolstering regional connectivity and economic cooperation. The expansion, along with the revival of the Pakistan-China-Afghanistan trilateral framework, was discussed in a recent briefing to the Pakistani Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs.

According to Pakistan Today, officials from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs outlined the details during a session in Islamabad, where they reviewed key aspects of Pakistan’s foreign relations, regional developments, and economic diplomacy.

Officials emphasized that Pakistan’s relationship with China remains strong, underscoring the “all-weather” strategic partnership between the two nations. Strengthening ties with Beijing, they stated, continues to be a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. This includes unwavering support for China’s position on regional and international issues, particularly the One-China policy and matters related to territorial integrity.

The briefing also touched upon China’s consistent backing of Pakistan in various areas, including sovereignty, economic stability, counter-terrorism, and support for Pakistan’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.

The Kashmir issue was also addressed, with officials noting that China considers it an unresolved matter and advocates for a peaceful resolution in line with UN Security Council resolutions.

The proposed CPEC expansion into Afghanistan is seen as a move to enhance regional economic integration amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Officials stated that reviving the trilateral framework is part of broader efforts to foster greater cooperation and connectivity in the region, with an eye on long-term stability and prosperity.

The move also reflects both countries’ desire to further integrate Afghanistan into the regional economic landscape, a key element in fostering peace and development.

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Uzbekistan–Afghanistan trade rises to $1.6 billion in 2025

Trade relations remain largely export-driven, with Uzbekistan supplying Afghanistan primarily with food products, energy resources, and industrial goods.

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Trade between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan rose sharply in 2025, reaching $1.6 billion, according to official data released by Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee.

The figure represents a 45.5 percent increase from $1.1 billion in 2024 and an 84.4 percent rise compared with 2023, when bilateral trade stood at $867.5 million, highlighting rapid growth in economic exchanges between the two countries.

Uzbekistan’s exports to Afghanistan accounted for the vast majority of the trade volume, totaling $1.5 billion, or 93.8 percent of overall bilateral turnover. Trade relations remain largely export-driven, with Uzbekistan supplying Afghanistan primarily with food products, energy resources, and industrial goods.

The surge in trade comes as Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade turnover reached $81.2 billion in 2025, reflecting broader efforts to expand and diversify external economic ties. By the end of the reporting period, Uzbekistan maintained trade relations with 210 countries.

China remained Uzbekistan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 21.2 percent of total trade, followed by Russia (16.0 percent), Kazakhstan (6.1 percent), Türkiye (3.7 percent), and the Republic of Korea (2.1 percent).

The latest figures underscore strengthening economic ties between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan amid efforts to boost regional trade and connectivity.

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