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Grim prospects if Israel launches ground assault on Gaza

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Israel appears likely to stage a ground assault on Gaza in response to deadly weekend attacks by Hamas, risking close-quarters fighting in densely populated areas, including in underground tunnels and around hostages.

Israel’s government on Monday said it would “immediately cut (its) water supply to Gaza” as part of a “complete siege” on the Hamas-controlled territory, AFP reported.

Next, “Israel will launch the largest joint (air/sea/land/space) operation against Gaza in history,” John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute at US military academy West Point, predicted on X, formerly Twitter.

Alexander Grinberg, of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that “strikes will first of all target Hamas command centers and troops, with fire coming from everywhere”.

“At the same time, the army will prepare to enter Gaza,” he said.

Such urban fighting will force combatants into hand-to-hand combat, reduce visibility, increase the risk of traps, blur boundaries between civilians and soldiers and render armored vehicles next to useless.

City fighting is “a 360-degree battlefield as the threats can be all around you,” said Andrew Galer, a former British army officer, now an analyst at private intelligence firm Janes.

Going house-to-house to secure potentially booby-trapped buildings means bringing in bomb disposal experts with cumbersome gear like ladders, ropes and explosives — “possibly all while taking fire” and in the dark, he added.

And there are “inherent risks” of friendly fire given “the difficulties of situational awareness”, Galer said.

“Using artillery can make the situation worse, as while it may kill some defenders, the rubble then provides them with cover”.

Gaza’s roughly 2.3 million Palestinian inhabitants have been living under an Israeli blockade since 2007.

Its overcrowded, narrow web of streets is doubled underground by a dense tunnel network known to Israeli troops as the “Gaza Metro”.

Gaza’s 14-kilometer (nine-mile) border with Egypt was once burrowed under with hundreds of tunnels used to smuggle fighters, weapons and other contraband — although many have now been destroyed.

But since 2014, Hamas has been digging underground pathways to get around territory it controls.

Some tunnels are as deep as 30 or 40 meters below ground, allowing militants to change position away from the danger of strikes.

Rocket batteries hidden just a few meters beneath the surface can be uncovered with a trapdoor just for the time it takes to fire a salvo.

Israel’s army and intelligence are certain to know about a portion of the network, and bombarded it heavily in 2021.

But other parts remain secret and will make any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in Gaza more difficult.

Hamas “knows its tunnels by heart,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the New York-based Soufan Center think-tank.

“Some are probably booby-trapped. Preparing to fight in such terrain… would require extensive intelligence… which the Israelis may not have,” he added.

Underground fighting would hand a major tactical advantage to the Hamas defenders and their leadership.

“Everyone knows it will be long and difficult, with many losses,” Grinberg said, although technology such as robots could work in the assaulting forces’ favor, AFP reported.

On the other hand, Hamas’ tunnel advantage “could also turn out to be a trap,” he added.

“When tunnels are found, they can be closed off to shut in the people inside. In this case, the order is likely to be for no quarter” to be given.

‘Bring the hostages back’

The dozens of civilian hostages Hamas seized at the weekend present another complication for the IDF.

“Israeli society wouldn’t forgive it if the hostages’ lives are not a priority,” said Sylvaine Bulle, a sociologist studying Israel at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

Citizens’ attitude would be “you have failed to ensure our security, bring us the hostages back,” she predicted — leading to “conflicts… between politicians and the military”.

The government is unable to negotiate for now, said Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based INSS think-tank.

“With all the sorrow, with all the pain… the hostage issue cannot be the first priority,” he said.

“Israel will reach to the hostage issue only with the upper hand and when Hamas will be defeated and weak, not a second before,” Michael added.

A Qatar-based Hamas official told AFP Monday there was “currently no chance for negotiation on the issue of prisoners or anything else”.

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Trump says further US attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as peace talks gain momentum

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

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US President Donald Trump has said further American military strikes against Iran are “highly unlikely”, signalling a possible shift towards de-escalation as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict gather momentum.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran was effectively defeated militarily and suggested Washington was prepared to maintain the current situation while negotiations continued.

“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said, adding that there was “positive momentum” behind efforts to reach an agreement.

“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” he said, explaining that the decision was largely being taken at the request of neighbouring countries.

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

“We’re locked and loaded,” he said, while describing further strikes as “highly unlikely”.

The comments come amid growing pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict to an end, following bruising midterm election results for Republicans last week. 

Several senior party figures, including Vice-President JD Vance, have pointed to the war as a factor behind the party’s poor performance.

Trump had previously indicated that US forces carried out what he described as limited strikes on an Iranian island near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. 

However, in a television interview broadcast on Sunday, he said he currently saw no reason to escalate the military campaign.

He also stopped short of formally declaring the war over, arguing that Washington still had to protect its Gulf allies from possible Iranian attacks.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, he suggested, was helping maintain security across the region.

Global oil prices fell further following Trump’s latest remarks, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% to around $91.50 a barrel, while US crude also declined.

Gulf diplomacy intensifies

Trump’s comments followed a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday.

The US president described their discussions as excellent, while the Qatari leader said he had held positive talks with Trump and Vance on reaching an agreement and restoring regional peace.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have largely been conducted through intermediaries since the war erupted following joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among Washington’s Gulf partners that have been targeted by Iranian attacks during the conflict, while security concerns have also caused significant disruption to regional air travel.

Political pressure mounts in Washington

Meanwhile, the war is generating further political tensions in Washington.

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie on Monday announced plans to force a House of Representatives vote this week on impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict.

Hegseth, who has received Trump’s backing, dismissed the threat, describing Massie’s effort as a “sham”.

The impeachment initiative is unlikely to succeed while Republicans retain control of Congress. However, Democrats have indicated they could pursue the matter when the new congressional session begins in January.

For Trump, the challenge is increasingly twofold: finding a diplomatic exit from the conflict while managing mounting political pressure at home and reassuring US allies across the Gulf.

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First Muslim US senator-elect El-Sayed calls for review of aid to Pakistan

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

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Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, has called on Washington to reconsider its financial and military assistance to Pakistan and several other countries, arguing that American taxpayer money should not be used to support violations of international law.

El-Sayed, a Democrat who recently defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan, said the United States must ensure that its foreign assistance policies are consistent with international law.

In an interview with ABC, he stressed that the issue should not be limited to Israel, but should also include Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.

“When we are giving money to a country that is using our money to violate international law, that seems to me a good place to start,” El-Sayed said.

His remarks come after US President Donald Trump announced plans to end approximately $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel by the end of the year.

El-Sayed welcomed Trump’s proposal to reduce military aid to Israel, saying he agreed with the president’s approach.

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

The United States currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance under an agreement that remains in effect until 2028.

However, El-Sayed’s criticism extends beyond Israel. He has also questioned US military assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Pakistan, arguing that American taxpayer money should instead be directed towards domestic priorities.

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World

Houthi-run health ministry says airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen capital

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

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At least 33 people were killed and 39 wounded in what the Houthi-run Saba news agency said ​were Saudi airstrikes on a village near Yemen’s capital Sanaa ‌on Saturday, in one of the deadliest reported attacks since fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned group resumed in July.

Reuters could not independently verify the account. ​Saudi Arabia’s Center for International Communication said it was investigating the report.

The ​renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has shattered ⁠a 2022 UN-brokered truce that largely halted attacks between the Saudi-led ​coalition and the group, which controls Sanaa. The Houthis have since launched ​missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Riyadh has carried out airstrikes in Yemen in support of its Yemeni allies.

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

Abdul-Aziz al-Dailami, ‌director ⁠of Sehatuna Hospital in Sanaa, said many victims remained trapped under the rubble, including first responders.

“The strikes keep coming. Just as rescuers arrive, another strike hits. We have even lost some of our own medical responders, ​who have been martyred,” ​he told Reuters.

“We ⁠received a number of wounded individuals in very critical condition, with injuries to the head, chest and legs, ​as well as fractures,” al-Dailami added.

The fighting, a spillover ​from the ⁠wider US-Iran conflict, has revived a complex 12-year war in Yemen that has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises globally and fragmented the Arab world’s most ⁠impoverished ​country.

The number of people displaced since the ​latest round of fighting began has climbed to more than 200,000, the International Organization for Migration said ​in October.

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