World
Grim prospects if Israel launches ground assault on Gaza
Israel appears likely to stage a ground assault on Gaza in response to deadly weekend attacks by Hamas, risking close-quarters fighting in densely populated areas, including in underground tunnels and around hostages.
Israel’s government on Monday said it would “immediately cut (its) water supply to Gaza” as part of a “complete siege” on the Hamas-controlled territory, AFP reported.
Next, “Israel will launch the largest joint (air/sea/land/space) operation against Gaza in history,” John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute at US military academy West Point, predicted on X, formerly Twitter.
Alexander Grinberg, of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that “strikes will first of all target Hamas command centers and troops, with fire coming from everywhere”.
“At the same time, the army will prepare to enter Gaza,” he said.
Such urban fighting will force combatants into hand-to-hand combat, reduce visibility, increase the risk of traps, blur boundaries between civilians and soldiers and render armored vehicles next to useless.
City fighting is “a 360-degree battlefield as the threats can be all around you,” said Andrew Galer, a former British army officer, now an analyst at private intelligence firm Janes.
Going house-to-house to secure potentially booby-trapped buildings means bringing in bomb disposal experts with cumbersome gear like ladders, ropes and explosives — “possibly all while taking fire” and in the dark, he added.
And there are “inherent risks” of friendly fire given “the difficulties of situational awareness”, Galer said.
“Using artillery can make the situation worse, as while it may kill some defenders, the rubble then provides them with cover”.
Gaza’s roughly 2.3 million Palestinian inhabitants have been living under an Israeli blockade since 2007.
Its overcrowded, narrow web of streets is doubled underground by a dense tunnel network known to Israeli troops as the “Gaza Metro”.
Gaza’s 14-kilometer (nine-mile) border with Egypt was once burrowed under with hundreds of tunnels used to smuggle fighters, weapons and other contraband — although many have now been destroyed.
But since 2014, Hamas has been digging underground pathways to get around territory it controls.
Some tunnels are as deep as 30 or 40 meters below ground, allowing militants to change position away from the danger of strikes.
Rocket batteries hidden just a few meters beneath the surface can be uncovered with a trapdoor just for the time it takes to fire a salvo.
Israel’s army and intelligence are certain to know about a portion of the network, and bombarded it heavily in 2021.
But other parts remain secret and will make any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in Gaza more difficult.
Hamas “knows its tunnels by heart,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the New York-based Soufan Center think-tank.
“Some are probably booby-trapped. Preparing to fight in such terrain… would require extensive intelligence… which the Israelis may not have,” he added.
Underground fighting would hand a major tactical advantage to the Hamas defenders and their leadership.
“Everyone knows it will be long and difficult, with many losses,” Grinberg said, although technology such as robots could work in the assaulting forces’ favor, AFP reported.
On the other hand, Hamas’ tunnel advantage “could also turn out to be a trap,” he added.
“When tunnels are found, they can be closed off to shut in the people inside. In this case, the order is likely to be for no quarter” to be given.
‘Bring the hostages back’
The dozens of civilian hostages Hamas seized at the weekend present another complication for the IDF.
“Israeli society wouldn’t forgive it if the hostages’ lives are not a priority,” said Sylvaine Bulle, a sociologist studying Israel at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).
Citizens’ attitude would be “you have failed to ensure our security, bring us the hostages back,” she predicted — leading to “conflicts… between politicians and the military”.
The government is unable to negotiate for now, said Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based INSS think-tank.
“With all the sorrow, with all the pain… the hostage issue cannot be the first priority,” he said.
“Israel will reach to the hostage issue only with the upper hand and when Hamas will be defeated and weak, not a second before,” Michael added.
A Qatar-based Hamas official told AFP Monday there was “currently no chance for negotiation on the issue of prisoners or anything else”.
World
Saudi Aramco helicopter crash kills 14 nationals, state news agency says
A helicopter belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco crashed on Sunday in Ras Tanura on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast on the Gulf, west of the Strait of Hormuz, killing 14 nationals, the state news agency reported, adding that the cause was unknown.
Aramco had resumed crude oil loadings on Friday at its Ras Tanura terminal in the Gulf after they were halted for nearly four months, Reuters reported.
“The relevant authorities have launched a full investigation to determine the cause of the crash,” the state news agency added.
Aramco did not respond immediately to an emailed request for comment.
The incident took place at 6 a.m. local time (0300 GMT), the state agency said, without providing further details.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, has joined a rush to move cargoes after Middle East producers ramped up oil and gas output and exports ahead of an interim deal to halt the war between the United States and Iran.
World
Israel, Lebanon sign initial agreement after US-mediated talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington on Friday following several days of talks to secure an end to fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollahmilitants, though both sides framed the deal as an initial step, Reuters reported.
Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad and her Israeli counterpart Yechiel Leiter signed the trilateral document with the U.S. at the State Department in Washington, providing few details.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.
“Today we’ve taken the first step in what will be a difficult journey, without a doubt, but an important and an essential and a necessary one,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said before the agreement was inked.
In a later statement he said that the U.S. would facilitate the implementation of the deal through a trilateral “Military Coordination Group for Lebanon” and that Washington would commit significant resources, including an immediate $100 million in humanitarian assistance in coordination with the U.N.
Rubio added that the U.S. reaffirmed its intent to improve the capabilities of the Lebanese Armed Forces “to more effectively establish sovereignty throughout Lebanese territory” with more than $30 million in funds under existing U.S. authorities and appropriations.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah broke out when the armed group fired at Israel on March 2, days after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. The Hezbollah attacks triggered Israeli air and ground attacks that have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and displaced more than a million.
Lebanon’s Moawad also called it a “first step” on the road to restoring Lebanese sovereignty.
“Iran is out, Hezbollah is out, and the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon is in,” Leiter said.
Netanyahu said in a statement that the deal would also allow the Lebanese army “to begin organizing to take control of territory,” starting with what he described as two “pilot zones” from which Israeli troops would withdraw from land they occupied during the war.
Israel describes that territory as a “security zone” or “buffer zone” where its troops can thwart Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the agreement should allow Lebanese to return to “fully liberated” land and rebuilt homes with “no partner” in its sovereignty.
Israel’s death toll from this round of hostilities with Hezbollah includes at least 32 soldiers and four Israeli civilians. Hezbollah does not release figures on its war dead. Reuters reported on May 4 that several thousand Hezbollah fighters had been killed in the war.
A State Department official told Reuters on Thursday that Israel had agreed to pull back from some of the territory it has occupied, something Israeli and Lebanese officials denied.
Before the talks resumed this week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt fire even as Israel kept troops in southern Lebanon.
Violence has persisted since the ceasefire, with Israel saying on Friday its troops had struck and killed what the military described as seven Hezbollah members who were operating near the territory it is occupying. Reuters could not confirm this.
“To the degree that the Lebanese army performs in dismantling and disarming Hezbollah, we will proceed with additional pilot zones and the ultimate determination of an internationally recognized, secure, and agreed upon border,” Leiter told reporters after the signing.
Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah said Lebanese authorities would not be able to enforce the agreement unless, with U.S. support, “they go to civil war,” pro-Iranian broadcaster Al Mayadeen reported, read the report.
Hezbollah would confront any measure taken by Lebanese authorities and would hold on to its weapons even more, adding that the group’s opposition was “serious” and would not allow authorities to implement their commitments on the ground, Fadlallah said.
Israeli forces dropped leaflets over the southern Lebanese town of Mansouri on Friday ordering residents to leave, Lebanese state media reported, the first such order issued since the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect.
A senior Lebanese military official said Israel had recently added Mansouri to its occupation zone. The official said Lebanese farmers had continued to enter and leave the town, but had not been living there.
An Israeli military spokesperson said the military issued what it described as a “reminder” to the civilian population that “the area is within the security zone in which (Israeli) soldiers operate. It’s a reminder not to be in the area so they won’t be harmed.”
World
Venezuela earthquake death toll rises to 188 as rescue efforts continue
According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.
The death toll from the powerful earthquakes that struck Venezuela’s northern Caribbean coast has risen to 188, authorities confirmed on Thursday, as emergency crews continue search and rescue operations.
Jorge Rodriguez, President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, said 1,520 people have been hospitalized with injuries, while 157 people remain missing. Rescue teams are still searching for more than 200 people believed to be trapped beneath collapsed buildings.
According to officials, 138 aftershocks have been recorded since the twin 7.2- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes struck late Wednesday, causing widespread destruction.
Rodriguez said 346 infrastructure sites sustained damage, including 250 buildings, 20 shopping centers, and eight hospitals, forcing authorities to transfer patients to other medical facilities.
The Venezuelan government has announced the establishment of a $200 million emergency reconstruction fund to support the rebuilding of damaged homes, hospitals, and other critical infrastructure.
Following the disaster, Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a national state of emergency, while tsunami warnings were issued across parts of the Caribbean region after the powerful earthquakes.
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