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Panic in Pakistan as India vows to cut off water supply over Kashmir

Islamabad has denied any role and said “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan … will be considered as an Act of War”.

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Pakistani farmers have voiced concern about future water supplies after India on Wednesday suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Tropy of 1960, which ensures water for 80% of Pakistan’s farms.

India said the suspension would last until “Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.

This move comes after last week’s attack in Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of having been involved, stating two of the three militants who attacked tourists and killed 26 men were from Pakistan.

Islamabad has denied any role and said “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan … will be considered as an Act of War”.

The treaty split the Indus and its tributaries between the nuclear-armed rivals.

Government officials and experts on both sides say India cannot stop water flows immediately, because the treaty has allowed it to only build hydropower plants without significant storage or dams on the three rivers allocated to Pakistan. But things could start changing in a few months, Reuters reported.

“We will ensure no drop of the Indus River’s water reaches Pakistan,” India’s water resources minister, Chandrakant Raghunath Paatil, said on X.

He did not respond to questions about the fears in Pakistan.

Two Indian government officials, who declined to be identified, said the country could within months start diverting the water for its own farms using canals while planning hydroelectric dams that could take four to seven years to finish.

Immediately, India will stop sharing data like hydrological flows at various sites of the rivers flowing through India, withhold flood warnings and skip annual meetings under the Permanent Indus Commission headed by one official each from the two countries, said Kushvinder Vohra, a recently retired head of India’s Central Water Commission.

“They will not have much information with them when the water is coming, how much is coming,” said Vohra, who was also India’s Indus Commissioner and now advises the government occasionally.

“Without the information, they cannot plan.”

And it is not just agriculture, a shortage of water will also hit electricity generation and potentially cripple the economy, economists say.

Vaqar Ahmed, economist and team lead with UK consulting firm Oxford Policy Management, said that Pakistan had underestimated the threat of India walking away from the treaty.

“India hasn’t got the kind of immediate infrastructure to halt the waterflows, especially during flood times, so this period creates a crucial window for Pakistan to address the inefficiencies in its water sector,” he said.

“There are a lot of inefficiencies, leakages.”

In recent years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been seeking to renegotiate the treaty and the two countries have been trying to settle some of their differences in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague over the size of the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants’ water storage area, Reuters reported.

“We can now pursue our projects in free will,” said Vohra.

In a letter on Thursday, India told Pakistan that circumstances had changed since the treaty was signed, including population increases and the need for more cleaner energy sources, referring to hydropower.

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Iran defends two-day proposal for peace talks after US rejects conditions

Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as ​few as two days as the ‌most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of ​Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”.

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Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as ​few as two days as the ‌most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of ​Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”, Reuters reported.

“Is it unreasonable that ​Iran demands that US illegal sanctions ⁠and its naval blockade must be lifted ​before negotiations start and that the war should ​end on all fronts?” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference in response to ​Rubio’s remarks.

Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as ​few as two days as the ‌most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of ​Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”.

“Is it unreasonable that ​Iran demands that US illegal sanctions ⁠and its naval blockade must be lifted ​before negotiations start and that the war should ​end on all fronts?” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference in response to ​Rubio’s remarks.

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Explosions heard in areas in southern Iran, Iranian media report

Earlier on Saturday, Tasnim news agency ‌said ⁠two missiles struck Qeshm Island with no official information on possible damage.

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Explosions were heard on Saturday evening in several areas in southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state ​television reported.

Iran’s state TV suggested that the explosions might be linked to ‌Iranian military activities in the strategic waterway, which has become subject to repeated attacks on commercial shipping since the war erupted between the US and Iran in February.

It said Iranian officials have ​not confirmed any missile strikes on the areas, while the semi-official Tasnim news ​agency cited a source as saying that the explosions heard on Qeshm ⁠Island were not related to missile strikes.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said early on ​Sunday that two oil tankers were on fire after hitting mines as they attempted to ​pass through an “unauthorized route” in the strait. It was not immediately clear if the incidents referred to by the IRGC were linked to the sound of explosions heard in southern Iranian areas.

Iran has hit ​vessels it says have violated its restrictions on passage through the waterway, as it ​seeks to assert control over the strait and exert pressure on Washington.

Earlier on Saturday, Tasnim news agency ‌said ⁠two missiles struck Qeshm Island with no official information on possible damage.

The reported explosions come days after the US carried out strikes on the island. A US official said those strikes were limited and not a resumption of major combat operations.

The US military said on ​Saturday evening that its ​forces disabled a commercial ⁠vessel that tried to get through the US blockade of Iran.

The US Central Command said one of its aircraft fired at ​the vessel’s stern and disabled the ship after it attempted to ​violate the ⁠blockade.

Countries in the region had been anticipating that US President Donald Trump, who has held off on strikes on Iran during the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s midterm elections, could ⁠restart ​attacks once the voting was over. Iran has repeatedly ​said it would respond to new attacks by striking at US and Israeli targets in neighboring countries.

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Pakistan’s leaders dread US Democrats’ win but its households are praying for it

Pakistan’s courtship of Trump, capped by its mediation in ​the Iran war, earned it a close relationship with his administration. That access has yet to deliver clear economic gains, and congressional scrutiny of Islamabad’s dealings with Trump’s inner ​circle now threatens the rewards its leaders hoped would follow.

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Pakistan’s leaders spent two years courting US President Donald Trump, but after the Democrats’ win in Tuesday’s congressional vote, they are preparing for scrutiny ​of their access to the White House.

Ordinary Pakistanis see the result differently. Many hope the shift in Washington will ease a cost-of-living crisis intensified ‌by the US-Israel war on Iran, Reuters reported.

“We believe meaningful negotiations with the current US administration are not possible, and the ongoing bloodshed will not end until there is a change in [the US] ​government,” Karachi resident Sajjad Ali said.

“We want peace, economic improvement and a reduction in the rising oil prices.”

Asim Zafar, also from Karachi, said he hoped ​the results would rein in Trump. “It could bring changes in important policies and perhaps help prevent some of the injustices being committed ⁠against Muslim countries,” he said.

But for Pakistan’s government and powerful military leadership, analysts say, the outcome is far more worrying.

Pakistan’s courtship of Trump, capped by its mediation in ​the Iran war, earned it a close relationship with his administration. That access has yet to deliver clear economic gains, and congressional scrutiny of Islamabad’s dealings with Trump’s inner ​circle now threatens the rewards its leaders hoped would follow.

A BET ON ONE MAN

The courtship began early in Trump’s second term, with army chief Asim Munir — who Trump has repeatedly described as his “favourite field marshal” — as Islamabad’s main channel to the White House.

Their June 2025 lunch took place unusually without Pakistani civilian officials present, which put the military at the centre of the rapprochement.

According to Pakistan’s military, ​their talks went beyond security to cooperation in mining, energy and cryptocurrency.

Pakistan then joined Trump’s Board of Peace and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, crediting him with ​helping end its May 2025 conflict with India. New Delhi denies US mediation halted hostilities.

Earlier this year, Iran mediation gave the courtship strategic substance: Islamabad relayed messages and hosted April talks between the ‌US and ⁠Iran, but the eventual Islamabad Agreement quickly faltered.

For consumers, Pakistan’s rising diplomatic influence has offered little protection from the war’s costs while the payoff for the state has also been thin. The US Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold project in December 2025. But Pakistan’s signature $10 billion request for a US Treasury facility remains unanswered.

DEALS UNDER SCRUTINY

Pakistan’s outreach, public and private, now carries political risk because several arrangements involve Trump’s family or close associates.

Islamabad has signed memoranda to explore payments in USD1, a stablecoin issued ​by the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial. At ​the signing in January, Finance Minister ⁠Muhammad Aurangzeb said innovation should be “aligned with regulation, stability, and national interest.”

It has also signed another memorandum to redevelop Manhattan’s Roosevelt Hotel, a deal negotiated by envoy Steve Witkoff, and placed a limited drone order with Powerus, whose investors include Trump’s sons Donald Jr. and ​Eric.

“There are no conflicts of interest,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Reuters in September, when asked about Powerus.

Husain Haqqani, ​a former Pakistani ambassador ⁠to Washington and senior fellow at the Abu Dhabi-based Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, said Pakistan’s leaders had “built a transactional relationship” with Trump’s team. Some arrangements involving the president’s friends and relatives “might not last,” he said. “Pakistan seems totally unprepared for that scrutiny.”

Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, warned that investigations could taint the wider relationship if dealings appeared ⁠driven by ​private interests.

From Pakistan’s perspective, there may still be cards left to play, analysts said.

The Atlantic Council’s Michael ​Kugelman said Pakistan’s counterterrorism cooperation and Iran diplomacy enjoyed bipartisan support, and Democrats would be more likely to blame problematic deals on Trump than on Pakistan.

But “the risk for Pakistan is that it put so many of ​its diplomatic eggs in the White House basket that it won’t have anything left for the Democrats,” Kugelman said.

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