Business
World Bank warns global economy could tip into recession in 2023
The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, and the world’s major economic engines sputter.
The development lender said it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%, Reuters reported.
It forecast global growth in 2024 to pick up to 2.7% — below the 2.9% estimate for 2022 — and said average growth for the 2020-2024 period would be under 2% — the slowest five-year pace since 1960.
The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one.
“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank said in a statement accompanying the report.
The bleak outlook will be especially hard on emerging market and developing economies, the World Bank said, as they struggle with heavy debt burdens, weak currencies and income growth, and slowing business investment that is now forecast at a 3.5% annual growth rate over the next two years — less than half the pace of the past two decades.
“Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.
China’s growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. It predicted a rebound to 4.3% for 2023, but that is 0.9 percentage-point below the June forecast due to the severity of COVID disruptions and weakening external demand.
The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist. This could cause central banks to respond by raising policy rates by more than currently expected, worsening the global slowdown, it added.
The bank called for increased support from the international community to help low-income countries deal with food and energy shocks, people displaced by conflicts, and a growing risk of debt crises. It said new concessional financing and grants are needed along with the leveraging of private capital and domestic resources to help boost investment in climate adaptation, human capital and health, the report said.
The report comes as the World Bank’s board this week is expected to consider a new “evolution road map” for the institution to vastly expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. The plan will guide negotiations with shareholders, led by the United States, for the biggest revamp in the bank’s business model since its creation at the end of World War Two.
Business
Russia eyes trans-Afghan railway to expand regional trade corridors
Uzbekistan, which already has a direct rail connection with Afghanistan, has positioned itself as a regional logistics hub linking Russia, Central Asia and South Asia.
Russia has expressed strong interest in constructing a railway through Afghanistan as part of broader efforts to strengthen transport and trade links with countries in the Global South, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk said.
Speaking to Russia 24 television, Overchuk noted that expanding connectivity with southern markets would help diversify Russia’s transport and logistics routes. He said various options for building a railway across Afghan territory are currently under discussion, with a focus on both western and eastern corridors.
Overchuk added that Russian specialists are actively studying the feasibility of the project and are involved in technical consultations related to the proposed railway.
His remarks follow earlier statements by Russian Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov, who said last year that Russia and Uzbekistan were jointly preparing a feasibility study for the Trans-Afghan railway, aimed at developing international transport corridors.
Subsequently, the transport ministers of Russia and Uzbekistan signed agreements to move into the development phase of the Trans-Afghan railway project, which is expected to extend southward to Pakistan.
Uzbekistan, which already has a direct rail connection with Afghanistan, has positioned itself as a regional logistics hub linking Russia, Central Asia and South Asia.
In November 2024, during a visit to Kabul, Overchuk told officials of the Islamic Emirate that Moscow was keen to participate in the Trans-Afghan railway project, describing it as a key initiative to enhance connectivity across Central Asia and the broader Eurasian region.
Business
Pakistan’s kinno exports falter as tensions with Afghanistan continue
Pakistan’s kinno exports remain far below potential as regional tensions, high freight costs and weak government support continue to choke the citrus trade.
Despite being a leading global citrus producer, Pakistan is expected to export just 400,000–450,000 tonnes of kinno in the 2025–26 season, compared with an estimated capacity of 700,000–800,000 tonnes.
Exports in 2024–25 stood at around 350,000–400,000 tonnes, mainly to Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Indonesia and Central Asia. While better fruit quality this season has raised hopes, persistent crossing disruptions—especially with Afghanistan—and transport bottlenecks have offset gains.
Growers say prices have collapsed sharply, forcing panic sales. Rates for large kinno have fallen from over Rs120 per kg early in the season to as low as Rs75, while smaller fruit is selling for Rs35–40 per kg amid weak demand.
Industry leaders warn the crisis is crippling processing units and jobs. More than 100 factories reportedly failed to open this season, with dozens more shutting down as exports stall. Cold storages in Sargodha are nearly full, putting fruit worth millions of dollars at risk of spoilage, while growers fear losses of up to Rs10 billion.
Exporters are urging the government to urgently resolve issues, subsidise logistics, and help access alternative markets, warning that prolonged inaction could devastate farmers, workers and the wider economy.
Business
Pezeshkian pledges to facilitate Iran-Afghanistan trade
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Tehran will facilitate trade and economic exchanges with Afghanistan, including easing procedures at customs and local marketplaces.
He made the remarks during a televised interview following his visit to South Khorasan province, which shares a border with Afghanistan.
Pezeshkian, in a separate event addressing local business leaders, highlighted the province’s strategic advantages, citing its rich mineral resources, proximity to neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and access to the ocean via the Chabahar port. He described the region as “a golden opportunity not found everywhere,” emphasizing its potential for economic growth and cross-border commerce.
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