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Climate Change

UN urges the world to ready for extreme heat risk from El Nino

The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

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The United ​Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly a strong El Nino that could drive up global ‌temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development and predicted ​above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino ​will continue until November.

It also said it remained uncertain how strong El Nino will be as models ⁠differ on its severity, but officials warned of the need to be ready.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino ​event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said ​WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

MORE DROUGHTS, HURRICANES AND HEAT?

The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

El Nino can also cause drought in ​Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO said.

The ​last El Nino, which meteorologists said was strong, in 2023 to 2024 contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.

Saulo said other ‌risks ⁠associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.

“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.

For consumers, facing inflation because of the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Nino.

Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s biggest cocoa processors, warned crops in ​the growing regions of Ecuador and ​West Africa that account for ⁠60% of global output could be reduced.

“This is something that we are very cautiously observing,” he told media on a call on Tuesday. “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you ​know, a few thousands per ton.”

London cocoa futures are trading at £2,944 ($3,964.10) per metric ton, down from more ​than 9,000 in ⁠April 2024.

Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade.

The WMO is more circumspect but said it had observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is ⁠driving surface ​warming.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said it was a reminder of the need for ​a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.

“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the ​fire of a warming world,” he said.

Climate Change

Afghanistan on climate front line as Kabul faces groundwater warning

Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.

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Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change despite contributing less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, UN officials and experts said at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The meeting, titled “Afghanistan on the Front Line of Climate and Migration Pressures,” brought together UN representatives, experts and Afghan activists to discuss the country’s worsening water crisis, drought, floods, displacement and the impact of climate change.

Selwin Hart, Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action, said Afghanistan faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity.

“Afghanistan accounts for less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, but faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity,” Hart said.

He said drought had severely affected Afghan communities for four consecutive years between 2021 and 2024, while flash floods this spring affected more than 73,000 people.

Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.

Najibullah Sadid, a water resources and climate change expert, warned that Kabul could become the first capital in the world to face severe groundwater shortages by 2030.

Kabul’s groundwater resources have been declining amid growing demand, with the city’s population estimated at around seven million. Experts have warned that continued overuse and reduced water availability could put the capital under severe water stress in the coming years.

Switzerland’s representative to the United Nations said his country supports Afghanistan’s efforts to address climate change and water security and is working through various channels to strengthen capacity in these areas.

He said Switzerland supports initiatives including the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia and the Global Network of Women in Water Diplomacy, as well as the network’s activities in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Participants called for Afghanistan’s climate crisis to be addressed through greater international cooperation and responsibility. They also urged improved access for Afghanistan and local institutions to financial resources for climate adaptation and compensation for climate-related losses.

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Climate Change

El Niño likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded, WMO says

A ​very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.

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The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ​ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological ‌Organization said on Thursday.

“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO ​Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference, Reuters reported.

The U.N. weather agency said ​its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will ⁠persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is ​the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.

A ​very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: ​The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said ​United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the ‌eastern ⁠Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.

This year’s phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical ​areas, causing a severe ​food crisis across ⁠Central America’s Dry Corridor.

It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But ​its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to ​leave higher ⁠global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.

Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.

“WMO is committed to working closely with partners ⁠across ​the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide ​the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and ​water resources,” she said.

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Climate Change

Nepal flood rescue mission enters critical phase as thousands remain missing

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Nepal’s search, rescue and recovery operation has entered a critical phase after devastating flash floods swept through communities along the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli river systems, leaving hundreds dead and thousands of people still unaccounted for.

The latest figures put the death toll at 734, with 2,498 people still missing. More than 8,000 people have been rescued or evacuated, including foreign nationals.

The disaster struck on August 26 when a massive surge of water and debris tore through communities in northern and central Nepal. The precise cause remains under investigation, although the catastrophe has been linked to a glacier collapse or ice-and-rock avalanche in the Himalayan region.

Rescue teams race to reach trapped workers

Among the most urgent rescue operations is the search for workers believed to be trapped inside hydropower tunnels along the Trishuli corridor.

Authorities say 933 hydropower workers are among those reported missing. At the Trishuli 3A hydropower project, rescuers have inserted a pipe into a tunnel and begun pumping air inside as teams work to reach people who may still be alive.

Specialist teams from neighbouring India and China are assisting with the difficult tunnel operations. Access remains extremely challenging, with roads and bridges destroyed, tunnel entrances buried and sections of infrastructure cut off by mud and floodwater.

Helicopters remain vital

With large sections of the affected region inaccessible by road, helicopters have become a crucial part of the rescue effort.

Military and other rescue aircraft are being used to evacuate survivors, transport food and medical supplies and reach communities cut off by the destruction. Poor weather, mountainous terrain and rising river levels, however, continue to hamper operations.

Authorities have also warned residents to remain vigilant as water levels rise in some rivers and new landslides create additional risks.

Search turns to recovery

As hopes of finding survivors continue, rescue teams are also facing the grim task of recovering and identifying victims.

Hundreds of bodies and human remains have been recovered from flood-affected districts, with some carried considerable distances downstream. The scale of the disaster has placed enormous pressure on local identification facilities, while additional forensic and DNA-testing support is being sought.

Families of missing people have gathered at hospitals, rescue centres and military bases, searching lists of survivors and recovered victims for information about relatives who remain unaccounted for.

International assistance grows

International support is also arriving as Nepal begins the enormous task of providing emergency assistance and planning for reconstruction.

India has deployed specialist rescue personnel and relief supplies, while China is assisting with tunnel rescue operations. Other countries and international organisations are also providing humanitarian assistance and specialist equipment.

The destruction of roads, bridges, homes, power infrastructure and hydropower facilities is expected to create a major long-term reconstruction challenge.

A race against time

For rescuers, the immediate priority remains finding those who may still be alive beneath collapsed structures and inside flooded tunnels.

For families, the operation is becoming a desperate search for answers.

Across the devastated river valleys, rescue workers continue digging through mud and debris while helicopters move between isolated communities. But with thousands still missing and the threat of further flooding and landslides, authorities face a race against time to locate survivors and recover those who did not make it.

 

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