Pakistan has emerged as the country most affected by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s return to power in 2021, according to a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG), as cited by Pakistani daily Dawn.

The Brussels-based independent think tank warns that relations between Kabul and Islamabad have sharply deteriorated, raising the risk of further military confrontation if militant attacks inside Pakistan continue. The report cautions that Pakistan may resort to additional cross-border military action against Afghanistan under such circumstances.

According to the ICG, the primary source of tension lies in Pakistan’s assertion that the Islamic Emirate has failed to act decisively against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Kabul has repeatedly rejected these claims, maintaining that Pakistan’s security challenges are internal and not linked to Afghan territory.

The report notes a significant escalation in violence across Pakistan since 2022. In 2025 alone, more than 600 Pakistani soldiers and police personnel were killed in militant attacks, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Islamabad attributes much of the violence to the TTP and Baloch insurgent groups, alleging they operate with backing from India.

The ICG also references United Nations monitoring assessments that claim the TTP enjoys support from the Islamic Emirate, an allegation Afghan authorities firmly deny. Kabul insists that TTP fighters are not present in Afghanistan and that militancy in Pakistan is homegrown.

According to Dawn, tensions escalated further after 11 Pakistani military personnel were killed in a TTP attack on October 8, prompting Pakistan to carry out airstrikes, including what was described as its first-ever strike on Kabul. Afghanistan subsequently retaliated by targeting Pakistani military positions, resulting in both military and civilian casualties on both sides.

The report warns that Islamabad is likely to respond forcefully again if future attacks are traced to Afghan territory. While describing the Islamic Emirate as militarily outmatched, the ICG cautions that any retaliation could still prove deadly. Afghan authorities have claimed they possess missiles capable of reaching Pakistani cities, a scenario that could provoke a far stronger response from Islamabad.

In a broader regional assessment, the International Crisis Group has listed Afghanistan–Pakistan relations among the 10 major conflicts to watch in 2026. The report adds that the global security environment was already deteriorating before Donald Trump’s return to the White House and that prospects for lasting peace in 2026 remain bleak.

Despite renewed diplomatic initiatives under President Trump aimed at portraying him as a global dealmaker, the report concludes that international crises have not eased and, in several cases, have intensified.