Business
SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.
According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.
SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.
“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.
The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.
Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.
SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.
SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.
“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.
According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.
As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.
By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.
However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.
According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.
In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.
However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.
The National Statistics and Information Authority (NSIA) said on Wednesday that last year, the value of exports totaled $1.79 billion while imports totaled $8.57 billion.
According to NSIA, fruits accounted for the largest share of export items last year, totaling over $645 million.
Medicinal plants, minerals and vegetables were the next top three items respectively to be exported.
Meanwhile, petroleum and oil accounted for the largest portion of imported goods, totaling over $1.37 billion.
Another large portion of the total amount imported went to machinery, vehicles and parts. This totaled over $1.15 billion, followed by textiles, metals and metal products.
Nooruddin Azizi, Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce, headed to Russia to participate in an international economic meeting in Kazan, Tatarstan.
The aim of the Russia-Islamic World: KazanForum 2024, the 15th edition of the forum, is to offer a platform for leading international economic and financial specialists from the Islamic world to strengthen ties between the countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the regions of the Russian Federation in the economic, educational, social and cultural spheres, Anadolu Agency reported.
The Ministry of Industry and Commerce said that Azizi, leading a high-level delegation of the Islamic Emriate, traveled to Tatarstan at the invitation of Tatarstan President Rustam Minnikhanov.
The forum is held between May 14 and 19.
The forum also aims to promote the development of Islamic financial institutions in Russia and worldwide, with a focus on joint international projects and programs, according to Anadolu Agency.
More than 80 nations are expected to participate in the event, including representatives of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Malaysia, Türkiye, Iran, Libya, and other OIC member states.
Deputy Prime Minister for Administrative Affairs Abdul Salam Hanafi says Afghanistan has the potential to become one of the most important industrial centers in the region.
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the national and international expo on the occasion of Industry Week, Hanafi said that the growth of industry lays the foundation for the growth of other economic sectors and that the Islamic Emirate fully supports domestic production in the country.
“Afghanistan has important and rich factors for industrial production, which can become one of the important industrial centers in the region. The growth of industry will be the basis for the growth of other economic sectors, especially agriculture,” said Hanafi.
Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce, Nooruddin Azizi, added that the IEA has programs in the fields of industry development and support for the private sector that will make Afghanistan self-sufficient.
Azizi stated that Afghanistan’s industrial sector is currently progressing and the quality of export goods has also improved.
Some investors said at the ceremony that after the return of the IEA, the country’s exports have increased and the number of manufacturing companies has also increased.
This expo is open to visitors for seven days, and industrial products are showcased in 450 booths.
Women in business also attended the meeting.
Tahawol: China’s ambassador meeting with deputy PM discussed
Saar: USIP’s report on Daesh threats discussed
Ministry of Defense confirms one dead, 12 injured in chopper crash in Ghor
IEA’s political deputy meets with Japanese ambassador
US think tank calls for revised counterterrorism strategy amid growing concerns
Commerce ministry inks 10 MoUs to boost development of small and medium-sized businesses
Rashid Khan threatens BBL pullout after Australia postpones Afghanistan T20I series
Afghanistan announce T20 World Cup 2024 squad
Rashid Khan named AWCC’s brand ambassador
Balkh health officials report sharp increase in number of cancer patients
Tahawol: China’s ambassador meeting with deputy PM discussed
Saar: USIP’s report on Daesh threats discussed
Tahawol: Afghanistan losing UN voting rights discussed
Tahawol: Uzbek delegation’s visit to Kabul discussed
Saar: UNAMA head’s meeting with Iranian officials discussed
-
Latest News5 days agoHundreds killed and injured in floods in four Afghan provinces
-
World5 days agoKuwait’s Emir dissolves parliament, suspends some constitution articles
-
World5 days agoUN General Assembly backs Palestinian bid for membership
-
Sport5 days agoSorkh Poshan Khafi and Sarsabz Yashlar win in ACL matches
-
Business4 days agoPakistan: Consultations underway on preferential trade agreement with Afghanistan
-
Business4 days agoAfghanistan, Pakistan agree on new travel mechanism for truckers
-
Business3 days agoAfghanistan can become important industrial center in region: Hanafi
-
Sport4 days agoKolkata down Mumbai to confirm IPL play-off berth