Business
SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.
According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.
SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.
“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.
The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.
Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.
SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.
SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.
“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.
According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.
As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.
By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.
However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.
According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.
In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.
However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.
Business
New Afghanistan-China transport corridor launched via Turkmenistan
A new multimodal freight corridor linking China and Afghanistan via Turkmenistan has been officially launched, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of overland cargo transportation across Central Asia.
According to the Turkmenistan Embassy in London, the country has become part of a newly established route designed to accelerate freight deliveries between China and Afghanistan.
The corridor, developed with the involvement of Uzbekistan Railways’ subsidiary Uztemiryulcontainer, covers approximately 7,400 kilometers and is expected to reduce transit time to around 30 days, improving overall logistics efficiency.
Under the new route, containers are transported by rail from China through the Altynkol station in Kazakhstan, continuing via Uzbekistan to a logistics hub in Bukhara. From there, cargo is transferred to road transport and moved across Turkmenistan before reaching Herat in Afghanistan.
Officials say the new system integrates rail and road networks into a unified logistics chain, making transport more predictable and efficient.
Business
Uzbekistan launches new cargo corridor linking China and Afghanistan
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan’s national railway operator has announced the launch of a new multimodal freight route designed to strengthen logistics links between China and Afghanistan via Central Asia.
According to Trend news agency the new corridor will see container used goods transported by rail from China through Kazakhstan’s Altynkol station into Uzbekistan. Cargo will then be handled at the Bukhara logistics centre, operated by Uztemiryulkonteyner, before continuing its journey by road.
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Previously, freight along this trade corridor was largely routed via sea from China to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, before continuing overland into Afghanistan. The new overland alternative is expected to streamline logistics and improve reliability.
Covering approximately 7,400 kilometres, the route is projected to reduce transit times to around 30 days, offering a more efficient option for regional cargo movement between East Asia and South Asia.
Business
Afghanistan presses Chinese contractor over delays in Mes Aynak copper project
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum Hedayatullah Badri has raised concerns over delays in the Mes Aynak copper project during a meeting with Chinese officials and company representatives.
The talks brought together the Chinese ambassador, the head of MCCT, and the chairman of MJAM, the contractor responsible for the major mining project. Discussions focused on the lack of progress and the failure to implement key obligations outlined in the mining contract.
Officials reviewed outstanding commitments that had previously been formally communicated to the company, with Afghan authorities stressing that agreed mining activities have yet to be carried out.
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Badri emphasized that the contractor must fully comply with all terms and conditions of the agreement, as well as follow the ministry’s formal directives. He called for concrete and immediate steps to accelerate the project and ensure full implementation of planned activities.
Mes Aynak copper project
The Mes Aynak copper deposit, located about 40 kilometres southeast of Kabul, is one of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves, with an estimated 11 million tonnes of copper.
The project was awarded to a Chinese consortium led by state-run Metallurgical Corporation of China in 2007 and formally signed in 2008 under a 30-year lease. Valued at roughly $3–4 billion, it was the largest foreign investment in Afghanistan at the time.
The agreement included plans to develop the mine along with major infrastructure such as railways, roads, and power facilities, although several of these commitments were later delayed or renegotiated.
Despite its scale, the project has seen little progress over the past decade. Work slowed significantly around 2013–2014, with ongoing delays attributed to security concerns, lack of infrastructure, and disputes over contractual terms. The presence of a significant archaeological site at Mes Aynak — containing ancient Buddhist remains — has also complicated development, requiring extensive preservation efforts.
Afghan authorities have repeatedly raised concerns over the contractor’s failure to meet key obligations and timelines, while Chinese companies have cited security and logistical challenges as major obstacles.
Since the political changes in Afghanistan in 2021, the project has repeatedly come under focus, with officials pushing to revive stalled mining initiatives as part of broader economic recovery efforts. Chinese firms have signaled continued interest, but meaningful progress has yet to materialize.
The project remains strategically important, with the potential to generate significant revenue, create jobs, and support Afghanistan’s long-term economic development — if longstanding challenges can be resolved.
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