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CIA scrambles for new approach in Afghanistan: NYT reports

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As US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the CIA is reportedly under intense pressure to find new ways to gather intelligence and carry out counterterrorism strikes in the country, the New York Times reported Monday.

But, according to the report, the spy agency has few good options.

The CIA, has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Daesh).

However, the agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover, the Times reported.

United States officials are in last-minute efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan for future operations with one focus on Pakistan.

According to the Times, the CIA used a base there for years to launch drone strikes against militants in the country’s western mountains, but was kicked out of the facility in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan soured.

The Times reported that diplomats are also exploring the option of regaining access to bases in former Soviet republics that were used for the Afghanistan war, although they expect that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would fiercely oppose this.

As the search continues, recent CIA and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic, the Times reported.

Intel reports have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants.

The Times reported that the scramble for bases illustrates how US officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.

William J. Burns, the CIA director, has acknowledged the challenge the agency faces. “When the time comes for the US military to withdraw, the US government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish,” he told senators in April.

Burns meanwhile visited Islamabad last month to meet with the chief of the Pakistani military and the head of the directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s military intelligence agency.

In addition to this, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan, the Times reported.

But according to the report, Burns did not bring up the base issue during his trip to Pakistan, and the visit focused on broader counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries.

However, the Times reported that at least some of Austin’s discussions have been more direct.

Douglas London, a former head of CIA. counterterrorism operations for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told the Times that the agency was likely to rely on a “stay behind” network of informants in Afghanistan who would collect intelligence on the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the stability of the central government and other topics. But without a large CIA presence in the country, he said, vetting the intelligence would be a challenge.

In the short term, the Pentagon is using an aircraft carrier to launch fighter planes in Afghanistan to support the troop withdrawal. But the carrier presence is unlikely to be a long-term solution, and military officials said it would probably redeploy not long after the last US forces leave, the Times reported.

The United States is also stationing MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Persian Gulf region, aircraft that can be used by both the Pentagon and the CIA for intelligence collection and strikes.

But, according to the Times, some officials are wary of these so-called over the horizon options that would require plane and drones to fly as many as nine hours each way for a mission in Afghanistan, which would make the operations more expensive because they require more drones and fuel, and also riskier because reinforcements needed for commando raids could not arrive swiftly during a crisis.

The Times also stated that as Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Taliban, Islamabad is unlikely to sign off on any US strikes against the Taliban that are launched from a base in Pakistan.

The Times also stated that while some American officials believe Pakistan wants to allow US access to a base as long as it can control how it is used, public opinion in the country has been strongly against any renewed presence by the United States.

This comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said last month that the government would not allow the US military to return to the country’s air bases.

The Times reported that American diplomats have been exploring options to restore access to bases in Central Asia, including sites in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan but that any negotiations with those countries are likely to take considerable time to work out.

According to the Times, US military and intelligence analysts are now in broad agreement that the Afghan government is likely to have trouble holding on to power.

They believe the Afghan security forces have been depleted by high casualty rates in recent years and that the announcement of the US withdrawal is a psychological blow that could weaken the force.

In addition, the Times reported that some current and former officials are skeptical that remote advising or combat operations will succeed.

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Tajikistan says two soldiers killed in clash with militants near Afghan border

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Tajik authorities say their border guards clashed with militants who crossed into Tajikistan’s Khatlon region from Afghanistan on Tuesday night.

Tajikistan’s State Committee for National Security said in a statement that militants intended to carry out an armed attack on one of the border outposts.

Three militants were killed and two Tajik soldiers died in the clash. From the scene, three firearms—an M-16 rifle and a Kalashnikov assault rifle—three foreign-made pistols equipped with suppressors, ten hand grenades, one night-vision device, explosives, and other military equipment were seized, according to the committee.

This was the third reported attack from Afghanistan into Tajikistan in the past month, with the previous ones targeting Chinese nationals.

The Islamic Emirate previously said it assured Tajikistan it was ready to tighten border security and conduct joint investigations.

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Afghanistan’s first aluminum can factory launched in Herat with $120 million investment

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, laid the foundation stone of the “Pamir” aluminum can production company at the industrial parks of Herat on Thursday.

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Afghanistan’s first aluminum can manufacturing plant was officially launched on Thursday in Herat province, marking a significant step toward industrial development and economic self-reliance.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, laid the foundation stone of the “Pamir” aluminum can production company at the industrial parks of Herat on Thursday.

According to officials, the Pamir factory is the first of its kind in Afghanistan and is being established with an investment of $120 million. The project will be built on 16 jeribs of land within Herat’s industrial zones.

Once completed, the factory is expected to create employment opportunities for around 1,700 Afghan citizens. Officials say the project will play a key role in boosting domestic production, reducing reliance on imports, and strengthening the national economy.

Authorities described the launch of the project as a clear sign of growing investment in the industrial sector and ongoing efforts to promote economic self-sufficiency in the country.

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Medvedev: IEA posed less threat to Russia than western-backed groups

He added that such organisations have consistently pursued one objective: “to break apart the multiethnic people of Russia.”

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Russia’s Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has said that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) caused less harm to Russia than Western-backed civic organisations that, he claims, sought to undermine the country’s unity.

In an article published in the Russian journal Rodina, Medvedev wrote that while the IEA had long been designated as a terrorist organisation, its actions did not inflict the same level of damage on Russia as what he described as Western-supported institutions operating under the banner of academic or humanitarian work.

“Let us be honest: the Taliban (IEA) movement, long listed as a terrorist organisation, has caused modern Russia far less damage than all those pseudo-scientific institutions whose aim is to dismantle our country under the guise of aiding the oppressed,” Medvedev stated.

He added that such organisations have consistently pursued one objective: “to break apart the multiethnic people of Russia.”

Medvedev’s remarks come amid a shift in Russia’s official stance toward Afghanistan. In April, Russia’s Supreme Court suspended the ban on the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which had previously been included on the country’s list of terrorist organisations.

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