Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Business
Uzbekistan launches new cargo corridor linking China and Afghanistan
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan’s national railway operator has announced the launch of a new multimodal freight route designed to strengthen logistics links between China and Afghanistan via Central Asia.
According to Trend news agency the new corridor will see container used goods transported by rail from China through Kazakhstan’s Altynkol station into Uzbekistan. Cargo will then be handled at the Bukhara logistics centre, operated by Uztemiryulkonteyner, before continuing its journey by road.
From Uzbekistan, shipments will be transferred onto trucks and transported across Turkmenistan en route to Herat in western Afghanistan.
Previously, freight along this trade corridor was largely routed via sea from China to Iran’s Bandar Abbas port, before continuing overland into Afghanistan. The new overland alternative is expected to streamline logistics and improve reliability.
Covering approximately 7,400 kilometres, the route is projected to reduce transit times to around 30 days, offering a more efficient option for regional cargo movement between East Asia and South Asia.
Business
Afghanistan presses Chinese contractor over delays in Mes Aynak copper project
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines and Petroleum Hedayatullah Badri has raised concerns over delays in the Mes Aynak copper project during a meeting with Chinese officials and company representatives.
The talks brought together the Chinese ambassador, the head of MCCT, and the chairman of MJAM, the contractor responsible for the major mining project. Discussions focused on the lack of progress and the failure to implement key obligations outlined in the mining contract.
Officials reviewed outstanding commitments that had previously been formally communicated to the company, with Afghan authorities stressing that agreed mining activities have yet to be carried out.
During the meeting, the MCCT president assured that pending operations would be implemented in line with contractual provisions.
Badri emphasized that the contractor must fully comply with all terms and conditions of the agreement, as well as follow the ministry’s formal directives. He called for concrete and immediate steps to accelerate the project and ensure full implementation of planned activities.
Mes Aynak copper project
The Mes Aynak copper deposit, located about 40 kilometres southeast of Kabul, is one of the world’s largest untapped copper reserves, with an estimated 11 million tonnes of copper.
The project was awarded to a Chinese consortium led by state-run Metallurgical Corporation of China in 2007 and formally signed in 2008 under a 30-year lease. Valued at roughly $3–4 billion, it was the largest foreign investment in Afghanistan at the time.
The agreement included plans to develop the mine along with major infrastructure such as railways, roads, and power facilities, although several of these commitments were later delayed or renegotiated.
Despite its scale, the project has seen little progress over the past decade. Work slowed significantly around 2013–2014, with ongoing delays attributed to security concerns, lack of infrastructure, and disputes over contractual terms. The presence of a significant archaeological site at Mes Aynak — containing ancient Buddhist remains — has also complicated development, requiring extensive preservation efforts.
Afghan authorities have repeatedly raised concerns over the contractor’s failure to meet key obligations and timelines, while Chinese companies have cited security and logistical challenges as major obstacles.
Since the political changes in Afghanistan in 2021, the project has repeatedly come under focus, with officials pushing to revive stalled mining initiatives as part of broader economic recovery efforts. Chinese firms have signaled continued interest, but meaningful progress has yet to materialize.
The project remains strategically important, with the potential to generate significant revenue, create jobs, and support Afghanistan’s long-term economic development — if longstanding challenges can be resolved.
Business
Kazakhstan grain exports to Afghanistan jump sharply
Shipments to Afghanistan reached 302,000 tons during the period, marking a 4.2-fold increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Grain exports from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan surged more than fourfold in the first quarter of 2026, according to a report by Kazinform International News Agency.
Shipments to Afghanistan reached 302,000 tonnes during the period, marking a 4.2-fold increase compared to the same timeframe last year.
Kazakhstan’s overall grain exports also recorded solid growth, rising 18 percent to 3.2 million tonnes. Domestic grain shipments increased by 8 percent, totaling 0.9 million tonnes.
Looking ahead, Kazakhstan plans to expand its agricultural processing capacity, with new grain facilities expected to handle a combined 5.8 million tonnes annually by 2028.
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