Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Business
Iraqi intelligence report alleges oil smuggling network supplying Afghanistan and Turkey through Iran
The report highlights broader challenges facing regional authorities in combating illicit oil trade and enforcing international sanctions.
An Iraqi intelligence report obtained by Sky News Arabia has revealed alleged large-scale crude oil smuggling operations from northern Iraq into Iran, where the oil is reportedly refined and later sold in regional markets, including Afghanistan and Turkey.
According to the report, shipments of crude oil are transported through land routes and unofficial trade channels into Iranian territory, where they undergo refining and processing before being re-exported to foreign markets.
The intelligence findings suggest that the alleged network is designed to bypass international sanctions and facilitate the movement of petroleum products outside official trade and financial monitoring systems.
The report further indicates that smuggling networks rely on informal transportation routes and cross-border commercial channels to maintain the collection, processing and distribution of oil products while avoiding regulatory oversight.
The revelations have raised concerns over cross-border smuggling, the loss of national resources and the potential impact of illicit oil trade on regional economies.
Security and political observers say the reported activities could put additional pressure on Iraqi authorities to strengthen border controls, monitor oil transportation routes and improve coordination with regional and international partners.
However, the allegations outlined in the intelligence report have not been independently verified, and further details about the networks involved, the quantities of oil transported and the scale of supplies reaching Afghanistan and Turkey remain unclear.
The report highlights broader challenges facing regional authorities in combating illicit oil trade and enforcing international sanctions.
Business
$30 million pharmaceutical investment launched in Herat as new production line opens
Meanwhile, the newly inaugurated serum and injectable production line is capable of producing up to 100,000 packages of serum per day.
The foundation stone has been laid for three new pharmaceutical production blocks at Ovison Pharma in Herat, with an investment of $30 million, while the factory’s new serum and injectable production line has also been inaugurated.
The new production blocks will be constructed on a 3,000-square-metre site, with each facility planned to have five floors. Equipped with advanced machinery and designed to meet international standards, the expansion is expected to significantly increase the factory’s pharmaceutical production capacity.
Meanwhile, the newly inaugurated serum and injectable production line is capable of producing up to 100,000 packages of serum per day.
The expansion marks a significant step toward strengthening Afghanistan’s pharmaceutical industry, increasing domestic production and reducing the country’s reliance on imported medicines.
The investment is also expected to support the development of local manufacturing capacity and improve access to domestically produced pharmaceutical products.
Business
Afghanistan approves new foreign investment policy in bid to attract international investors
The decisions have been forwarded to the office of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Emirate for final approval.
Afghanistan’s Economic Commission has approved a new foreign investment policy aimed at attracting international investors, improving investment opportunities and supporting the country’s economic growth.
The decision was made during the commission’s regular meeting, chaired by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, at the Marble Palace on Monday.
According to the Deputy Prime Minister’s Office for Economic Affairs, the proposed policy was presented by a committee established under the leadership of the economic deputy office. Following a comprehensive review and consideration of the commission’s recommendations, the policy was approved.
The policy aims to regulate foreign investment activities, facilitate investment procedures, create a favourable environment for investors, ensure investment security and promote Afghanistan’s economic growth and development.
During the meeting, the commission also approved a proposal concerning the payment of fixed taxes by commercial import companies at the country’s customs offices.
Officials said implementing the proposal would create additional facilities and simplify procedures for importing businesses.
The decisions have been forwarded to the office of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Emirate for final approval.
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