Pakistan’s citrus sector is facing a worsening export crisis as the closure of the Afghanistan crossing continues to block access to its largest market.

Despite the start of the 2025 citrus season, exports are set to fall further from an already steep decline — dropping from $211 million in fiscal year 2021 to just $92.5 million in fiscal year 2025.

Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.

This year alone, Pakistan shipped 153,683 tonnes of citrus to Afghanistan, while exports through the Afghan transit route also supply Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. With that corridor shut, exporters warn that the bulk of Pakistan’s kinnow harvest could go unsold.

A temporary policy exemption now allows citrus shipments to transit through Iran, but exporters say volumes to Central Asia and Russia cannot compensate for the loss of the Afghan market.

The crisis, however, goes deeper than the current crossing closure situation. Pakistan’s citrus industry continues to suffer from long-standing structural challenges — including reliance on the outdated, seeded kinnow variety that makes up over 90% of exports.

Climate change, rising pest pressure, shrinking yields, and declining A-grade fruit quality have all eroded competitiveness. Yields have fallen to about six tonnes per acre, and nearly half of kinnow processing units have closed.

Global competitors such as Egypt, China, Spain, Morocco, and Brazil have overtaken Pakistan by introducing new seedless, high-yielding varieties with longer harvest windows. As profits shrink, farmers are abandoning citrus orchards: the cultivated area has dropped 16% in the past five years.

Experts say Pakistan must urgently invest in developing seedless, climate-resilient varieties and strengthen existing research centres. At the same time, trade officials need to diversify export destinations by securing new sanitary and phytosanitary agreements to reduce dependence on a single market.

Without structural reforms and diversified access, Pakistan’s signature fruit risks losing its place in global markets — and its farmers risk losing their livelihoods.

Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani urged direct engagement with non-state actors as essential to resolving conflicts across the region, from Afghanistan to Gaza.

Speaking at the 23rd Doha Forum, he said peace efforts cannot succeed if major actors on the ground are excluded. “You cannot reach a solution if no one is speaking to non-state actors,” he told a session moderated by US journalist Tucker Carlson.

Sheikh Mohammed noted that Qatar’s mediation model—used in Afghan peace talks and repeated ceasefire efforts in Gaza—is built on facilitating communication between all sides. He revealed that both Hamas and the Taliban opened political offices in Doha at the request of the United States to maintain reliable channels for negotiations.

Addressing accusations that Qatari aid to Gaza was diverted to Hamas, he stressed that all funds were delivered transparently to civilians, with oversight from the US and coordination with Israel.

He also criticised political figures who, he said, distort Qatar’s role for domestic gain, despite its mediation leading to hostage releases, humanitarian pauses, and ceasefires.

The Qatari PM condemned Israel’s strike on Qatari territory in September as an “unprecedented” breach of diplomatic norms and said reconstruction of Gaza must be the responsibility of those who caused the destruction.

This year’s Doha Forum brings together more than 5,000 participants from 162 countries to discuss conflict resolution, humanitarian crises, and global governance.

At the Doha Forum on Saturday, Afghan officials underscored the critical need for renewed dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan, warning that recent political tensions risk undermining the region’s broader connectivity and integration goals.

Abdul Hai Qanit, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told participants that constructive engagement between Kabul and Islamabad is essential for long-term stability and economic cooperation.

“We can resolve all issues through dialogue,” Qanit said. “But we must not reach a point of no return, as there are significant interests tied to regional integration.”

He noted that Afghanistan has a strong interest in maintaining positive relations with Pakistan, but cautioned that recent developments are jeopardizing shared progress.

“Trade routes are being weaponized, geography is being politicized, and corridors are being used as leverage in political disputes,” he said. “This threatens the very concept of regional integration.”

Qanit urged both countries to take a long-term view. “It is essential for Pakistan and Afghanistan to sit together and resolve these problems. If these crises continue, confidence in regional connectivity will erode.”

Despite current tensions, he expressed optimism that the situation is temporary. “I believe this is a short-term crisis. The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship will return to a positive track. Afghanistan can advance ongoing projects and serve not as a threat, but as a hub linking South Asia and Central Asia.”

Echoing this focus on cooperation, Dr. Eldor Aripov, Director of Uzbekistan’s Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies, emphasized that economic engagement remains the most effective way to support Afghanistan’s development.

“Different approaches are needed,” he said. “Our position is clear: economic cooperation is the best tool to help Afghanistan move forward.”

As discussions at the Doha Forum continue, regional leaders are exploring pathways to strengthen cross-border economic projects and expand connectivity across South and Central Asia.