Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
A Kazakh delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Kazakhstan met with Sediqullah Khalid, First Deputy Governor of Da Afghanistan Bank, to discuss ways of strengthening banking and economic cooperation between the two countries.
According to a statement issued by Da Afghanistan Bank, Khalid said the central bank is keen to establish regular and effective banking relations with Kazakhstan as part of broader efforts to expand bilateral trade.
He noted that enhanced banking cooperation would help facilitate trade, investment, and wider economic interaction between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan, while also contributing to financial stability at the regional level.
Members of the Kazakh delegation also emphasized the importance of developing banking and economic ties and expressed their readiness to expand joint cooperation.
The two sides further agreed to establish technical committees from both countries to hold expert-level discussions and advance practical steps for cooperation.
Business
Afghanistan, Kazakhstan envoys discuss expanding trade and regional connectivity
Ambassador Shakeeb thanked Kazakhstan for its continued support and constructive engagement with Afghanistan, particularly in efforts aimed at peace and economic development.
Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Sardar Ahmad Shakeeb, has met with Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Pakistan, Yerzhan Kistafin, to explore ways to strengthen bilateral relations and advance regional cooperation.
The two envoys exchanged views on Afghanistan–Kazakhstan ties, regional connectivity, and major infrastructure initiatives, as well as the opportunities and challenges facing regional trade. Discussions also touched on Kazakhstan’s role in promoting regional stability and other matters of mutual interest.
Ambassador Shakeeb thanked Kazakhstan for its continued support and constructive engagement with Afghanistan, particularly in efforts aimed at peace and economic development.
He expressed hope that the proposed $3 billion joint trade agreement, once finalized, would bring tangible benefits to both countries and contribute to broader regional economic integration.
Ambassador Kistafin reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s support for stability and economic growth in Afghanistan, highlighting his country’s involvement in key regional connectivity and trade projects.
He said the current security and stability situation in Afghanistan has increased Kazakhstan’s confidence in expanding regional trade and transit, and praised the efforts of the Islamic Emirate in this regard.
He also stressed the need for coordinated regional efforts to ensure lasting stability, sustainable economic development, and the smooth movement of goods and transit across the region.
Business
Mahirood Customs leads Iran’s exports to Afghanistan
More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.
Mahirood Customs in South Khorasan province has become Iran’s main export gateway to Afghanistan, accounting for 36 percent of the country’s total exports to its eastern neighbor, Iranian officials said.
South Khorasan Governor Seyed Mohammadreza Hashemi told local media that Mahirood ranked first among Iran’s 71 active customs points during the first eight months of the current Iranian year.
More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.
Official customs figures show that Iran’s total exports to Afghanistan exceeded 4.26 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with Mahirood handling the largest share, Hashemi said.
He attributed the strong performance to South Khorasan’s strategic location, improved border infrastructure, effective planning, close cooperation with traders, and coordinated efforts by government agencies.
Hashemi said the expansion of exports via Mahirood Customs is contributing to economic growth, job creation, and stronger economic diplomacy for the province.
He added that continued support for exporters and streamlined customs procedures could further increase South Khorasan’s share of the Afghan market and other target markets in the future.
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