Business
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could prompt refugee crisis: IMF
Afghanistan’s economy is set to contract up to 30% this year and this is likely to further fuel a refugee crisis that will impact neighbouring countries, Turkey and Europe, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
With non-humanitarian aid halted and foreign assets largely frozen after the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) seized power in August, Afghanistan’s aid-reliant economy “faces severe fiscal and balance-of-payments crises”, it said in its regional economic outlook update.
“The resulting drop in living standards threatens to push millions into poverty and could lead to a humanitarian crisis.”
The IMF said the turmoil in Afghanistan was expected to generate important economic and security spillovers to the region and beyond and was “fueling a surge in Afghan refugees”, although it gave no estimates of potential numbers.
“A large influx of refugees could put a burden on public resources in refugee-hosting countries, fuel labor market pressures, and lead to social tensions, underscoring the need for assistance from the international community,” it said.
Assuming a million more Afghans flee their homeland and settle in other countries in a way that is proportional to the existing spread of Afghan refugees, the annual cost of hosting them would amount to $100 million in Tajikistan (1.3% of gross domestic product), about $300 million in Iran (0.03% of GDP) and more than $500 million in Pakistan (0.2% of GDP), the IMF said.
Tajikistan said last month it could not afford to take in large numbers of refugees unless it received international financial assistance.
Other Central Asian nations have also said they have no plans to host refugees.
Another channel through which Afghanistan’s economic troubles could affect its neighbours is trade.
“Exports to Afghanistan are macroeconomically and socially relevant for Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan,” the Fund said.
Afghanistan previously served as a source of cash dollars, through both legitimate and possibly illicit cross-border flows, due to its status as a beneficiary of large donor funds, but now even larger amounts of dollar banknotes could start flowing into the country due to its shortages, the IMF said.
The goods they are exchanged for are likely to raise new concerns over money laundering and the financing of terrorism, it added.
Business
Ariana Afghan Airlines boost air trade with arrival of new cargo aircraft
The Ariana Afghan Airlines press office says this achievement marks an important stride toward strengthening national trade and promoting Afghanistan’s path to economic self-reliance.
Ariana Afghan Airlines has announced a major development in the country’s air-transport sector, confirming that a long-awaited charter cargo aircraft has been officially contracted and will arrive in Afghanistan soon. The move is being hailed as a “significant and facilitative breakthrough” for national traders.
Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, the head of Ariana Afghan Airlines, says the finalization of this contract reflects the leadership’s firm commitment to supporting Afghanistan’s growing trade sector. “This new cargo aircraft is part of Ariana’s broader plan to strengthen exports and provide fast, reliable, and competitive air-transport services for Afghan traders,” Sharafat stated.
According to Ariana officials, the addition of the new cargo aircraft will greatly enhance commercial air-transport services. It is expected to ensure timely delivery of goods, reduce transportation costs, and significantly increase the country’s export capacity.
Economic experts believe this step will not only offer substantial facilities to traders but will also play a key role in Afghanistan’s economic development and the expansion of its export markets.
Ariana’s leadership says the cargo aircraft will open new avenues for accelerating and securing the movement of both export and import goods, while fostering healthy competition within the nation’s aviation sector.
The Ariana Afghan Airlines press office says this achievement marks an important stride toward strengthening national trade and promoting Afghanistan’s path to economic self-reliance.
Business
IEA demands assurances from Islamabad before trade routes reopen
Mujahid noted that Afghanistan is currently meeting its essential import needs through a range of regional partners, and therefore will not rush to resume commerce with Pakistan without clear assurances.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has said that the reopening of trade and transit routes with Pakistan will depend on Islamabad providing firm guarantees that these corridors will not again be used as instruments of political pressure.
In a statement released on social media, IEA spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid accused Pakistan of having “illegally and politically” closed key border routes in recent months, a move he said caused “serious harm to the people on both sides of the Durand Line.”
Mujahid noted that Afghanistan is currently meeting its essential import needs through a range of regional partners, and therefore will not rush to resume commerce with Pakistan without clear assurances.
He said the IEA wants trade to take place in a “dignified and mutually beneficial” manner and made clear that any reopening will require Islamabad to commit to keeping commercial corridors free from political interference.
“Trade routes with Pakistan will only be reopened once strong assurances are received from the Pakistani government,” he said, adding that the guarantees must ensure Pakistan cannot again weaponise transit access or disrupt legitimate trade.
According to the IEA, the priority is to safeguard traders’ rights, stabilise cross-border transit, and ensure that the economic needs of the population are not influenced by political disputes.
The IEA said any step toward reopening the routes must be built on mutual respect and a long-term commitment to cooperation.
Business
Ariana Airlines deepens cooperation with Turkish Airlines
Both sides agreed to form joint technical and operational teams to advance cooperation and strengthen the regional air transport network.
Ariana Afghan Airlines and Turkish Airlines have moved to strengthen their aviation partnership following a high-level meeting between Ariana CEO Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat and Turkish Airlines CEO Bilal Ekşi.
According to Ariana Afghan Airlines, the discussions centered on expanding air transport connectivity, improving passenger and cargo services, and increasing the exchange of technical and operational expertise between the two carriers.
Sharafat praised Turkish Airlines for its global reach and operational standards, noting that the airline’s experience could play a vital role in enhancing air travel, trade, and tourism between Afghanistan and Turkey.
Ekşi commended Ariana’s recent improvements and said Turkish Airlines would support capacity-building initiatives, including technical training, aircraft maintenance, and operational enhancement programs.
Both sides agreed to form joint technical and operational teams to advance cooperation and strengthen the regional air transport network. The move marks a significant step toward deeper aviation collaboration between the two countries.
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