Regional
Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
While rising U.S.-Iran tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse, Reuters reported.
With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a “Plan B”, the sources said, but with Beijing’s trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.
“The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself,” a senior Iranian official said.
“The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China.”
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
After four rounds of talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, multiple stumbling blocks remain. Tehran refuses to ship all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or engage in discussions over its ballistic missile programme, two of the Iranian officials and a European diplomat said.
The lack of trust on both sides and President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 accord with world powers has also raised the importance for Iran of getting guarantees that Washington will not renege on a future accord, read the report.
Compounding Tehran’s challenges, Iran’s clerical establishment is grappling with mounting crises – energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, military losses among regional allies, and rising fears of an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites – all exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies.
With Trump’s speedy revival of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, including tightened sanctions and military threats, the sources said, Iran’s leadership “has no better option” than a new deal to avert economic chaos at home that could threaten its rule.
Nationwide protests over social repression and economic hardship in recent years, met with harsh crackdowns, have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to public anger and triggered sets of Western human rights sanctions.
“Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said the second official, who like others asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of matter.
Iran’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment.
Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the U.S. negotiating team that reached the 2015 accord between Tehran and six world powers, said it was impossible to convince Tehran to “dismantle its nuclear programme and give up their enrichment even though that would be ideal”.
“So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don’t think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president,” she said.
Even if enrichment disputes narrow, lifting sanctions remains fraught. The U.S. favours phasing out nuclear-related sanctions, while Tehran demands immediate removal of all restrictions.
Dozens of Iranian institutions vital to Iran’s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have been sanctioned since 2018 for “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation”.
When asked about Iran’s options if talks fail, Sherman said Tehran would likely “continue to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, largely to China, perhaps India and others”.
China, Iran’s primary oil buyer despite sanctions, has helped stave off economic collapse, but Trump’s intensified pressure on Chinese trade entities and tankers threatens these exports.
Analysts warn that China and Russia’s support has limits. China insists on steep discounts for Iranian oil and may push for lower prices as global oil demand weakens.
If talks collapse – a scenario both Tehran and Washington hope to avoid – neither Beijing nor Moscow can shield Iran from unilateral U.S. and EU sanctions, Reuters reported.
France, Britain and Germany, though not part of the U.S.-Iran talks, have warned they would reimpose U.N. sanctions if no deal emerged quickly.
Under the 2015 nuclear pact’s U.N. resolution, the E3 have until October 18 to trigger the so-called “snapback mechanism” before the resolution expires.
According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may do this by August if no substantial deal can be found by then.
Diplomats warn that getting a deal before then would mean, in the best case scenario, an initial political framework like in 2013 whereby both sides offer some immediate concrete concessions giving time for a more detailed negotiation.
“There is no reason to think it will take less time than the 18 months in 2013 especially when the parameters and the geopolitical situation is more complicated now,” a senior European official said.
Regional
Iran’s FM calls Oman-mediated talks with US ‘good start’
Iran’s foreign minister on Friday described talks with the United States in Oman as a “good start,” saying the negotiations “can also have a good continuation,” Iranian state media reported.
The discussions, mediated by Oman, marked a resumption of nuclear diplomacy between Tehran and Washington. Iranian state media said the current round of talks concluded on Friday, with both delegations returning to their respective capitals.
Speaking to state media reporters in Muscat, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the talks’ progress depends on the U.S. and on decisions made in Tehran.
Araghchi said a “significant challenge” remains, citing a prevailing atmosphere of distrust. He said Iran’s priority is to overcome this distrust and then establish an agreed framework for the talks and the issues on the table.
He described the talks as a fresh round of dialogue after eight turbulent months that included a war, saying the accumulated distrust presents a major obstacle to negotiations.
“If this same approach and perspective are maintained by the other side, we can reach an agreed framework in future sessions,” Araghchi said, adding that he did not want to judge prematurely.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei also confirmed on the social media platform X that both sides agreed to continue talks and would decide the next round in consultation with their capitals.
Regional
Pakistan sends helicopters, drones to end desert standoff; 58 dead
The BLA, which has urged people of the province to support the movement, said on Tuesday it had killed 280 soldiers during its Operation “Herof”, Black Storm, but gave no evidence.
Pakistan’s security forces used drones and helicopters to wrest control of a southwestern town from separatist insurgents after a three-day battle, police said on Wednesday, as the death toll in the weekend’s violence rose to 58, Reuters reported.
Saturday’s wave of coordinated attacks by the separatist Baloch Liberation Army brought Pakistan’s largest province to a near standstill as security forces exchanged fire with insurgents in more than a dozen places, killing 197 militants.
“I thought the roof and walls of my house were going to blow up,” said Robina Ali, a housewife living near the main administrative building in the fortified provincial capital of Quetta, where a powerful morning blast rocked the area.
Fighters of the BLA, the region’s strongest insurgent group, stormed schools, banks, markets and security installations across Balochistan in one of their largest operations ever, killing more than 22 security officials and 36 civilians, read the report.
Police officials gave details of the situation on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.
In the desert town of Nushki, home to about 50,000, the insurgents seized control of the police station and other security installations, triggering a three-day standoff.
Police said seven officers were killed in the fighting before they regained control of the town late on Monday, while operations against the BLA continue elsewhere in the province.
“More troops were sent to Nushki,” said one security official. “Helicopters and drones were used against the militants.”
Pakistan’s interior ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Pakistan’s largest and poorest province, mineral-rich Balochistan borders Iran and Afghanistan and is home to Beijing’s investment in the Gwadar deepwater port and other projects.
It has grappled with a decades-long insurgency led by ethnic Baloch separatists seeking greater autonomy and a larger share of its natural resources.
The BLA, which has urged people of the province to support the movement, said on Tuesday it had killed 280 soldiers during its Operation “Herof”, Black Storm, but gave no evidence.
Security officials said the weekend attacks began at 4 a.m. on Saturday with suicide blasts in Nushki and the fishing port of Pasni and gun and grenade attacks in 11 more places, including Quetta.
The insurgents seized at least six district administration offices during the siege and had advanced at one point to within 1 km (3,300 ft) of the provincial chief minister’s office in Quetta, the police officials said.
Regional
Turkish President Erdogan meets Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday, marking the first stop of his regional tour, according to Türkiye’s Communications Director Burhanettin Duran.
Erdogan is in Saudi Arabia on an official visit, accompanied by his wife, First Lady Emine Erdogan, as well as Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, Defense Minister Yasar Guler and other senior officials.
No further details were released about the closed-door meeting.
Following the talks, bin Salman hosted a closed-door dinner in honor of the Turkish president at the Yemame Palace. Earlier in the day, Erdogan was welcomed by the crown prince during an official reception.
The Riyadh visit is the first leg of Erdogan’s tour of regional countries.
He is scheduled to travel to Cairo on Wednesday at the invitation of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to co-chair the second meeting of the Türkiye-Egypt High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council.
During his visit to Egypt, Erdogan and Sisi are expected to discuss bilateral relations and exchange views on regional and international developments, with a particular focus on the situation in Palestine, Duran said.
The Turkish president is also set to attend a Türkiye-Egypt Business Forum in Cairo.
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