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Russia, Ukraine sit for tense talks on thorny territorial issue

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Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in Abu Dhabi on Friday to tackle the vital issue of territory, with no sign of a compromise, as Russian airstrikes plunged Ukraine into its worst energy crisis of the nearly four-year war.

Kyiv is under mounting U.S. pressure to reach a peace deal in the war triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with Moscow demanding Kyiv cede its entire eastern industrial area of Donbas before it stops fighting, Reuters reported.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the territorial dispute was a central issue for the tripartite talks, including Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. officials, which were scheduled to conclude on Saturday.

“The most important thing is that Russia should be ready to end this war, which it started,” Zelenskiy said in a statement on the Telegram app, adding he was in regular contact with the Ukrainian negotiators, but it was too early to draw conclusions from Friday’s talks.

“We’ll see how the conversation goes tomorrow and what the outcome will be.”

Rustem Umerov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council and the head of its delegation, said in a statement the talks had discussed parameters for ending the war and the “further logic of the negotiation process.”

The negotiations come a day after Zelenskiy met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Zelenskiy said on Friday that a deal on U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine was ready, and that he was only waiting on Trump for a specific date and place to sign it.

Ukraine has sought robust security guarantees from Western allies in the event of a peace deal to prevent Russia, which has shown little interest in ending the war, from invading again.

RUSSIA STEPS UP ATTACKS ON POWER INFRASTRUCTURE

The tripartite talks, brokered by the U.S., are unfolding against a backdrop of intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy system that have cut power and heating to major cities such as Kyiv, as temperatures dip well below freezing.

The head of Ukraine’s top private power producer, Maxim Timchenko, told Reuters on Friday the situation was nearing a “humanitarian catastrophe” and that Ukraine needs a ceasefire that halts attacks on energy infrastructure.

Kyiv’s energy minister said on Thursday that Ukraine’s power grid had endured its most difficult day since a widespread blackout in November 2022, when Russia began bombing energy infrastructure.

Russia says it wants a diplomatic solution but will keep working to achieve its goals by military means as long as a negotiated solution remains elusive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that Ukraine surrender the 20% it still holds of the Donetsk region of the Donbas – about 5,000 sq km (1,900 sq miles) – has proven a major stumbling block to a breakthrough deal.

Zelenskiy refuses to give up land that Russia has not been able to capture in four years of grinding, attritional warfare. Polls show little appetite among Ukrainians for territorial concessions.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia’s insistence on Ukraine yielding all of Donbas was “a very important condition.”

A source close to the Kremlin told Reuters that Moscow considers an “Anchorage formula” – which Russia says was agreed between Trump and Putin at a summit in Alaska last August – would hand Russia control of all of Donbas and freeze the front lines elsewhere in Ukraine’s east and south.

Donetsk is one of four Ukrainian regions Moscow said in 2022 it was annexing after referendums rejected by Kyiv and Western nations as bogus. Most countries recognise Donetsk as part of Ukraine.

MOSCOW WANTS USE OF FROZEN ASSETS

Russia has also floated the idea of using the bulk of nearly $5 billion of Russian assets frozen in the United States to fund a recovery of Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine. Ukraine, backed by European allies, demands that Russia pay it reparations.

Asked about Russia’s idea, Zelenskiy dismissed it as “nonsense.”

Zelenskiy said on Thursday in Davos that the Abu Dhabi talks would be the first trilateral meetings involving Ukrainian and Russian envoys and U.S. mediators since the war began.

Last year, Russian and Ukrainian delegations had their first face-to-face meeting since 2022 when they met in Istanbul. A top Ukrainian military intelligence officer also had talks with U.S. and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi in November.

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Iran claims it targeted a US-linked oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz

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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Thursday that it carried out an attack on an oil tanker linked to a U.S. company in the Strait of Hormuz after the vessel allegedly ignored repeated warnings from Iranian authorities.

In a statement, the IRGC said the tanker Safesea Vishnu, which it described as owned by a U.S. company and sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands, was struck north of the strategic waterway early in the morning.

Iranian officials claimed the ship failed to comply with maritime instructions issued by Iranian forces operating in the area.

The IRGC warned that shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz faces increasing risks, placing responsibility for the heightened tensions on the United States. The IRGC urged commercial vessels transiting the region to follow Iranian maritime regulations in order to avoid potential attacks.

The incident comes amid a broader escalation of hostilities between Iran, the United States, and Israel.

On March 2, Tehran announced it was closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to ongoing U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran. The strait is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying a significant share of global oil shipments.

Since the announcement, shipping and insurance costs in the region have surged, while global oil prices have risen amid fears of supply disruptions. Analysts warn that prolonged instability in the waterway could have major economic consequences worldwide.

The reported attack also follows continued U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets that began on February 28. Iranian authorities say the strikes have killed around 1,300 people and wounded more than 10,000 others.

In response, Tehran has launched drone and missile attacks targeting Israeli territory as well as locations in Iraq and several Gulf states that host U.S. military facilities, raising concerns about a widening regional conflict and threats to international shipping routes.

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US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse: report

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U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless U.S. and Israeli bombardment, Reuters reported citing three ​sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” ‌said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion ​of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Israeli officials in closed discussions also ​have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that ⁠the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The ​White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

SHIFTING OBJECTIVES

Since launching their war, the U.S. and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and ​members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the U.S. operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that ​controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of senior Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a ‌fourth source ⁠familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current U.S.-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.

INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS KURDS LACK FIREPOWER TO FIGHT IRAN

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services ​there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the ​government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the ⁠Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive ​U.S. support.

Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases ​and barracks out of fear ⁠of U.S. and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs ⁠the autonomous region ​of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for ​comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers for the U.S. to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Trump said on Saturday ​that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.

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As many as 150 US troops wounded so far in Iran war: report

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As many as 150 U.S. troops have been wounded in the 10-day-old ​war with Iran, Reuters reported citing two people familiar with the matter.

The casualty figure has not been previously reported. Prior to Reuters’ publication of the figure, the Pentagon had only disclosed eight U.S. personnel seriously injured.

In a statement after ​Reuters published its report, the Pentagon estimated the figure to be approximately ​140 wounded and said the vast majority of them were ⁠minor.

“Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, approximately 140 U.S. service members ​have been wounded over 10 days of sustained attacks,” said chief Pentagon ​spokesperson Sean Parnell.

He said 108 of the wounded service members had already returned to duty.

Parnell said the eight seriously wounded service members were receiving the highest level of medical ​care.

Reuters could not determine the types of injuries and whether they include traumatic brain ​injuries, which are common after exposure to blasts.

Iran has launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. military bases ‌since ⁠the start of the conflict on Feb. 28. It has also struck diplomatic missions in Arab Gulf states as well as hotels and airports and damaged oil infrastructure.

The Pentagon says the number of Iranian strikes has fallen sharply ​since the start of ​the war, as ⁠the U.S. military bombs Iran’s weapons inventories and targets Iran’s more limited number of missile launchers.

Asked if ​Iran was a stronger adversary than he expected when the ​U.S. military ⁠drew up its war plans, General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters earlier on Tuesday that the fight was not harder than ⁠expected.

“I think ​they’re fighting, and I respect that, but ​I don’t think they are more formidable than what we thought,” Caine told a Pentagon briefing.

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