The ongoing crossing closure between Afghanistan and Pakistan,  enforced on October 11 amid escalating tensions, has disrupted major export flows and strained multiple industries on both sides.

While analysts warn that a prolonged deadlock will further squeeze Pakistan’s export outlook, some argue the shutdown may temporarily slow the entry of smuggled goods into the country.

A leading cement producer said imports of Afghan coal and Pakistan’s cement exports to Afghanistan have completely halted. The disruption has sharply increased the price of locally sourced Darra coal, now selling at Rs42,000–45,000 per tonne compared to Rs30,000–32,000 previously. Afghan coal, priced at Rs30,000–38,000 per tonne before the land port’s closure, has disappeared from the market.

Southern cement plants already rely on imported coal, but northern mills—previously dependent on Afghan supplies—are now shifting to imports from South Africa, Indonesia and Mozambique. The cement industry consumes roughly four million tonnes of coal annually, making the shortage especially acute.

Exporters also dismissed Iran as an alternative route due to non-existent banking channels, logistical limitations, and the impossibility of shifting millions of tonnes of coal through informal means. Afghanistan accounts for roughly 7 percent of Pakistan’s total cement exports.

D.G. Khan Cement told investors that imported coal currently costs $90–100 per tonne and said it would continue relying on foreign supplies until the crossing reopens. Several manufacturers are switching to RB2 coal, a mid-range grade with more favourable pricing.

Insight Research noted that cement firms with the biggest exposure to the Afghan market include Cherat Cement (9.8% of revenues), Fauji Cement (5.8%), and Maple Leaf Cement (3.1%).

Pharmaceutical Sector Faces Mounting Losses

According to Dr Kaiser Waheed, former chairman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association, Pakistan exports around $187 million worth of medicines to Afghanistan—out of $1.8 billion in total exports. He said informal medicine trade is roughly triple the volume of official shipments.

With the crossing closed, consignments are piling up at factories. While companies could divert unsold medicines to local markets, many products are Afghanistan-specific and not used domestically.

The Searle Company told investors that a full-year shutdown could cost the firm up to Rs2 billion. Insight Research highlighted that for five listed pharmaceutical exporters, sales to Afghanistan range from 1.9% to 8.1% of revenues, with overall exposure for some firms as high as 45%.

The situation has worsened since Afghanistan imposed a three-month ban on medicine imports from Pakistan, further constricting trade.

Container Backlogs and Logistical Gridlock

Former PAJCCI president Qazi Zahid Hussain said 700–750 containers are stranded at Chaman and another 350–400 at Torkham. Meanwhile, more than 9,000 containers remain stuck at Pakistani ports awaiting clearance, including 500 meant for Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets such as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Fruit and Vegetable Supply Shock

Pakistan exports bananas, potatoes, kinnow and mangoes to Afghanistan, and relies on Afghan transit routes to access CIS markets. Waheed Ahmed of the PFVA said the combined value of fruit and vegetable exports to Afghanistan and CIS stands at about $150 million annually.

Imports of tomatoes, onions, pomegranates, grapes and apricots from Afghanistan have also stalled, forcing traders to dump spoiled produce or sell it domestically at heavy losses.

Exporters are exploring routes via Iran, but lack of financial instruments from banks has stalled progress. The State Bank recently denied a request to waive the requirement for such instruments for exports routed through Iran.

Truck drivers meanwhile face dire conditions. PAJCCI president Junaid Makda said many have been stranded in Afghanistan for weeks, with some attacked and most suffering from food shortages and lack of cash.

The halt has also shifted fruit supply trends: pomegranates now arrive mainly from Iran, pushing prices from Rs2,000–2,500 to Rs4,000–4,500 per 10kg carton. Iranian apples and grapes are also entering the market, with 15–20 containers arriving daily.

Ghee, Cooking Oil and Flour Traders Also Affected

Before the shutdown, Pakistan exported 6,000–8,000 tonnes of ghee to Afghanistan monthly, though cooking oil exports were minimal, according to PVMA Chairman Sheikh Umer Rehan.

Flour exporters say the Afghan market has already largely shifted away from Pakistan in recent years. Former PFMA Sindh chairman Aamir Abdullah noted that Afghanistan now sources most of its wheat from Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

“Realistically, Pakistan has lost the Afghan wheat and flour markets—and the foreign exchange that came with it,” he said.