Business

Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

Published

4 months ago

December 14, 2025

Ariana News

Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.

However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.

On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.

The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.

Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.

The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.

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Business

CASA-1000 power project on track to launch in 2027

Once operational, CASA-1000 is expected to strengthen regional energy security, support economic integration, and expand electricity trade across Central and South Asia.

Published

5 days ago

April 22, 2026

Ariana News

The long-delayed CASA-1000 energy project is expected to begin commercial operations in summer 2027, with construction in Afghanistan due for completion earlier that year, officials said.

Progress on the power project was reviewed during meetings in Dushanbe between April 18 and 20, involving Tajik authorities, Afghanistan’s state power utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat, the World Bank, and engineering firm KAMANI Engineering Corporation.

Tajik Energy Minister Daler Juma said the project is key to boosting regional cooperation and enabling the export of surplus hydropower from Central Asia to energy-deficient markets in South Asia.

Construction has already been completed in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan, while work continues in Afghanistan. According to officials, the Afghan segment is on track to be finalized by spring 2027, paving the way for full project operations later that summer.

Once operational, CASA-1000 is expected to strengthen regional energy security, support economic integration, and expand electricity trade across Central and South Asia.

Business

Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan agree on framework to boost trade and transit

Officials said the talks focused on easing the movement of goods, particularly Afghan export products destined for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Published

6 days ago

April 21, 2026

Ariana News

Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have agreed to strengthen regional trade and transit cooperation following a high-level trilateral meeting held in Tashkent on the sidelines of the INNOPROM Central Asia expo.

Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce Nuruddin Azizi met with Laziz Kudratov, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, and Sanzhar Iskenderovich Asylkulov, Deputy Minister of Economy and Commerce of Kyrgyzstan, to discuss measures aimed at facilitating transit procedures, increasing trade volumes and expanding Afghan exports to Central Asian markets.

Officials said the talks focused on easing the movement of goods, particularly Afghan export products destined for Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the three sides agreed to establish a joint working group to oversee implementation of the proposed initiatives. They also reached agreement on Afghanistan’s membership in the exhibition platform.

The event brings together participants from across Central Asia, as well as Russia and Belarus, providing a platform for industrial cooperation and investment.

Officials say Afghanistan’s participation is expected to open new opportunities for local industries to showcase products and strengthen their presence in regional markets, while the agreement marks a step toward deeper economic integration and improved regional connectivity.

Business

Afghanistan showcases industry at key Central Asia expo

The exhibition brings together government officials, investors and manufacturers from across Central Asia and beyond, including participants from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Published

7 days ago

April 20, 2026

Ariana News

Afghanistan is making a notable showing at the INNOPROM Central Asia, one of the region’s largest industrial platforms, as Minister of Industry and Commerce Nuruddin Azizi travels to Uzbekistan to attend the event.

It is aimed at promoting industrial development, showcasing advanced technologies and expanding regional investment cooperation.

According to Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce, more than 60 Afghan companies are taking part, representing sectors such as cotton, coal, pharmaceuticals and agricultural products.

Officials say the participation highlights efforts to strengthen trade ties and position Afghanistan as a growing economic partner in the region.

INNOPROM Central Asia is widely regarded as a key platform for fostering industrial collaboration and unlocking new investment opportunities across Central Asia.