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CIA scrambles for new approach in Afghanistan: NYT reports

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As US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, the CIA is reportedly under intense pressure to find new ways to gather intelligence and carry out counterterrorism strikes in the country, the New York Times reported Monday.

But, according to the report, the spy agency has few good options.

The CIA, has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Daesh).

However, the agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover, the Times reported.

United States officials are in last-minute efforts to secure bases close to Afghanistan for future operations with one focus on Pakistan.

According to the Times, the CIA used a base there for years to launch drone strikes against militants in the country’s western mountains, but was kicked out of the facility in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan soured.

The Times reported that diplomats are also exploring the option of regaining access to bases in former Soviet republics that were used for the Afghanistan war, although they expect that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin would fiercely oppose this.

As the search continues, recent CIA and military intelligence reports on Afghanistan have been increasingly pessimistic, the Times reported.

Intel reports have highlighted gains by the Taliban and other militant groups in the south and east, and warned that Kabul could fall to the Taliban within years and return to becoming a safe haven for militants.

The Times reported that the scramble for bases illustrates how US officials still lack a long-term plan to address security in a country where they have spent trillions of dollars and lost more than 2,400 troops over nearly two decades.

William J. Burns, the CIA director, has acknowledged the challenge the agency faces. “When the time comes for the US military to withdraw, the US government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish,” he told senators in April.

Burns meanwhile visited Islamabad last month to meet with the chief of the Pakistani military and the head of the directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, the country’s military intelligence agency.

In addition to this, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan, the Times reported.

But according to the report, Burns did not bring up the base issue during his trip to Pakistan, and the visit focused on broader counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries.

However, the Times reported that at least some of Austin’s discussions have been more direct.

Douglas London, a former head of CIA. counterterrorism operations for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told the Times that the agency was likely to rely on a “stay behind” network of informants in Afghanistan who would collect intelligence on the Taliban, al-Qaeda, the stability of the central government and other topics. But without a large CIA presence in the country, he said, vetting the intelligence would be a challenge.

In the short term, the Pentagon is using an aircraft carrier to launch fighter planes in Afghanistan to support the troop withdrawal. But the carrier presence is unlikely to be a long-term solution, and military officials said it would probably redeploy not long after the last US forces leave, the Times reported.

The United States is also stationing MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Persian Gulf region, aircraft that can be used by both the Pentagon and the CIA for intelligence collection and strikes.

But, according to the Times, some officials are wary of these so-called over the horizon options that would require plane and drones to fly as many as nine hours each way for a mission in Afghanistan, which would make the operations more expensive because they require more drones and fuel, and also riskier because reinforcements needed for commando raids could not arrive swiftly during a crisis.

The Times also stated that as Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Taliban, Islamabad is unlikely to sign off on any US strikes against the Taliban that are launched from a base in Pakistan.

The Times also stated that while some American officials believe Pakistan wants to allow US access to a base as long as it can control how it is used, public opinion in the country has been strongly against any renewed presence by the United States.

This comes after Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said last month that the government would not allow the US military to return to the country’s air bases.

The Times reported that American diplomats have been exploring options to restore access to bases in Central Asia, including sites in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan but that any negotiations with those countries are likely to take considerable time to work out.

According to the Times, US military and intelligence analysts are now in broad agreement that the Afghan government is likely to have trouble holding on to power.

They believe the Afghan security forces have been depleted by high casualty rates in recent years and that the announcement of the US withdrawal is a psychological blow that could weaken the force.

In addition, the Times reported that some current and former officials are skeptical that remote advising or combat operations will succeed.

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Suicide bomber kills 31 in Shi’ite mosque in Pakistan’s capital

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A suicide bomber killed at least 31 people and wounded nearly 170 others during Friday prayers at a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, Reuters reported, citing police and government officials.

Images from the site showed bloodied bodies lying on the carpeted mosque floor surrounded by shards of glass, debris and panicked worshippers.

Dozens more wounded were lying in the gardens of the Khadija Tul Kubra Imambargah, in a semi-urban area on the outskirts of Islamabad, as people called for help.

Bombings are rare in the heavily guarded capital, although Pakistan has been hit by a rising wave of militancy in the past few years.

“The death toll in the blast has risen. A total of 31 people have lost their lives. The number of wounded brought to hospitals has risen to 169,” Deputy Commissioner Islamabad Irfan Memon said in a statement.

Two police officials said the attacker was stopped at the gate of the mosque before detonating the bomb. They asked not to be identified as they were not authorized to speak to the media.

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Central Asian leaders are urging Pakistan to improve Afghanistan policies, says Khalilzad

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Former U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has highlighted the strategic importance of Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan, noting that visiting Central Asian leaders are likely encouraging Islamabad to strengthen its policies toward Kabul.

In a post on X, Khalilzad emphasized that Central Asian nations have a strategic interest in access to Pakistan and beyond, including the sea, to support their trade and connectivity projects. He pointed out that these countries are particularly focused on developing railways, pipelines, telecommunications, and electricity networks linking Central Asia and Pakistan—a move he said would also serve Pakistan’s interests.

“Of course, Afghanistan’s role is vital to the goal of regional connectivity and development,” Khalilzad said. “Stability in Afghanistan and good Pakistan/Afghanistan relations are the absolute prerequisite.”

He suggested that the Central Asian leaders visiting Islamabad are urging improvements in Pakistan’s Afghanistan policies and expressed hope that Pakistani authorities would listen to these recommendations.

Pakistani officials have repeatedly claimed that Afghanistan-based militants have carried out recent attacks in Pakistan. Kabul denied the charge, saying it could not be held responsible for security inside Pakistan.

Trade between the two countries remains suspended following a deadly clash near the Durand Line in October.

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Latvia launches human trafficking investigation after Epstein file release

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Latvia has launched a criminal investigation into potential human trafficking after the release of documents related to late U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein that included references to Latvian model agencies and models, police in the Baltic nation said on Thursday.

The investigation, which also involves Latvia’s prosecutors and its Organised Crime Bureau, will centre on “the possible recruitment of Latvian nationals for sexual exploitation in the United States”, police said in a statement, Reuters reported.

It has asked potential victims to come forward.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics called for the investigation after the public broadcaster reported the Epstein documents included passport data and travel details for several Latvian women.

Eriks Neisans, head of the Natalie modelling agency mentioned in the documents, denied any knowledge of wrongdoing to the public broadcaster.

The U.S. Justice Department’s recent release of millions of internal documents related to Epstein has revealed the late financier and sex offender’s ties to many prominent people in politics, finance, academia and business – both before and after he pleaded guilty in 2008 to prostitution charges.

Latvia’s neighbour Lithuania has launched its own investigation into human trafficking earlier this week.

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