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Grim prospects if Israel launches ground assault on Gaza

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Israel appears likely to stage a ground assault on Gaza in response to deadly weekend attacks by Hamas, risking close-quarters fighting in densely populated areas, including in underground tunnels and around hostages.

Israel’s government on Monday said it would “immediately cut (its) water supply to Gaza” as part of a “complete siege” on the Hamas-controlled territory, AFP reported.

Next, “Israel will launch the largest joint (air/sea/land/space) operation against Gaza in history,” John Spencer, an expert at the Modern War Institute at US military academy West Point, predicted on X, formerly Twitter.

Alexander Grinberg, of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that “strikes will first of all target Hamas command centers and troops, with fire coming from everywhere”.

“At the same time, the army will prepare to enter Gaza,” he said.

Such urban fighting will force combatants into hand-to-hand combat, reduce visibility, increase the risk of traps, blur boundaries between civilians and soldiers and render armored vehicles next to useless.

City fighting is “a 360-degree battlefield as the threats can be all around you,” said Andrew Galer, a former British army officer, now an analyst at private intelligence firm Janes.

Going house-to-house to secure potentially booby-trapped buildings means bringing in bomb disposal experts with cumbersome gear like ladders, ropes and explosives — “possibly all while taking fire” and in the dark, he added.

And there are “inherent risks” of friendly fire given “the difficulties of situational awareness”, Galer said.

“Using artillery can make the situation worse, as while it may kill some defenders, the rubble then provides them with cover”.

Gaza’s roughly 2.3 million Palestinian inhabitants have been living under an Israeli blockade since 2007.

Its overcrowded, narrow web of streets is doubled underground by a dense tunnel network known to Israeli troops as the “Gaza Metro”.

Gaza’s 14-kilometer (nine-mile) border with Egypt was once burrowed under with hundreds of tunnels used to smuggle fighters, weapons and other contraband — although many have now been destroyed.

But since 2014, Hamas has been digging underground pathways to get around territory it controls.

Some tunnels are as deep as 30 or 40 meters below ground, allowing militants to change position away from the danger of strikes.

Rocket batteries hidden just a few meters beneath the surface can be uncovered with a trapdoor just for the time it takes to fire a salvo.

Israel’s army and intelligence are certain to know about a portion of the network, and bombarded it heavily in 2021.

But other parts remain secret and will make any Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operation in Gaza more difficult.

Hamas “knows its tunnels by heart,” said Colin Clarke, research director at the New York-based Soufan Center think-tank.

“Some are probably booby-trapped. Preparing to fight in such terrain… would require extensive intelligence… which the Israelis may not have,” he added.

Underground fighting would hand a major tactical advantage to the Hamas defenders and their leadership.

“Everyone knows it will be long and difficult, with many losses,” Grinberg said, although technology such as robots could work in the assaulting forces’ favor, AFP reported.

On the other hand, Hamas’ tunnel advantage “could also turn out to be a trap,” he added.

“When tunnels are found, they can be closed off to shut in the people inside. In this case, the order is likely to be for no quarter” to be given.

‘Bring the hostages back’

The dozens of civilian hostages Hamas seized at the weekend present another complication for the IDF.

“Israeli society wouldn’t forgive it if the hostages’ lives are not a priority,” said Sylvaine Bulle, a sociologist studying Israel at France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).

Citizens’ attitude would be “you have failed to ensure our security, bring us the hostages back,” she predicted — leading to “conflicts… between politicians and the military”.

The government is unable to negotiate for now, said Kobi Michael, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based INSS think-tank.

“With all the sorrow, with all the pain… the hostage issue cannot be the first priority,” he said.

“Israel will reach to the hostage issue only with the upper hand and when Hamas will be defeated and weak, not a second before,” Michael added.

A Qatar-based Hamas official told AFP Monday there was “currently no chance for negotiation on the issue of prisoners or anything else”.

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Putin visits India for first time since 2022 Ukraine invasion

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Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin a two-day trip to India on Thursday, his first since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow seeks to reinforce defense and trade ties with New Delhi amid rising pressure from the Trump administration over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Putin will travel with a high-level delegation that includes Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
Media reports suggest the two countries may revisit a long-delayed fighter jet agreement during the visit.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to host Putin for a private dinner on Thursday, followed by a summit meeting and business engagements on Friday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s S-400 air defense systems would be a “significant” point of discussion, underscoring the central role of military cooperation in the relationship. India has so far received three of the five S-400 units ordered in 2018, with remaining shipments delayed by Western sanctions and supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.

Reports also indicate that Moscow may propose jointly manufacturing its Su-57 fighter jet in India. Russia remains a major source of India’s defense equipment, though its share of India’s arms imports has declined as New Delhi expands domestic production.

The visit comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Indian exports, arguing that India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude indirectly supports Moscow’s war effort. India has emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil since 2022, saving billions of dollars, though it has recently scaled back purchases as Washington tightened sanctions on producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil.

Indian officials worry that new defense or energy deals with Moscow could trigger additional retaliation from Washington at a sensitive moment in U.S.–India trade talks.

Speaking to Indian media, Peskov dismissed concerns over U.S. measures. “What matters to us is maintaining and increasing our business with India without interference,” he said.

Analysts say neither country is likely to abandon the relationship. Even if India further reduces its intake of Russian crude, Moscow remains indispensable as a supplier of parts for India’s large stock of Russian-made military platforms.

“There may be some reduction in energy purchases under U.S. pressure,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, “but the overall direction of the ties will be maintained because both countries need each other at the strategic level.”

Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion in 2024–25, nearly six times the pre-pandemic figure, though Indian exports accounted for less than $5 billion. New Delhi has been pressing Moscow to open more space for Indian pharmaceuticals, automobiles and service-sector companies.

Analysts say the visit gives both leaders an opportunity to assess the geopolitical landscape, including the war in Ukraine, and signal continuity in the partnership.

“For India, the optics underscore its commitment to strategic autonomy, and for Putin—who rarely travels—the trip highlights the importance he places on the relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant of King’s College London.

A senior Indian Foreign Ministry official, speaking anonymously, described Russia–India ties as among the “most stable relationships in modern times,” urging observers to view the visit in its bilateral context.

“This is just another annual summit between two countries with a steady relationship,” the official said.

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Russia says no Ukraine compromise after five-hour Putin meeting with Trump envoys

The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

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Russia and the United States failed to reach a compromise on a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine following five hours of talks between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump’s top envoys, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The discussions stretched past midnight but produced no breakthrough, according to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.

“Compromises have not yet been found,” Ushakov told reporters. “There is still a lot of work to be done.”

He said Putin reacted negatively to some U.S. proposals and that the two sides remained divided on key issues, including the “territorial problem” — Russia’s claim to the entire Donbas region.

Ukraine continues to control roughly 5,000 square kilometers of territory that Moscow asserts as its own, although almost all countries recognize Donbas as part of Ukraine.

Witkoff later visited the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to brief the White House, Ushakov said.

While describing the talks as “constructive,” Ushakov stressed that no meeting between Putin and Trump is planned at this stage. He added that both sides had agreed not to disclose further details of the discussions.

Trump, speaking earlier in Washington, called the conflict “a mess” and said his envoys were in Moscow to explore whether a settlement was possible. He cited casualty estimates of 25,000 to 30,000 per month in the ongoing war.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering the most severe confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

Concerns Among European Allies

The talks come amid unease in European capitals after a leaked set of 28 draft U.S. peace proposals appeared in November, prompting fears that Washington was leaning too far toward Moscow’s demands. European powers subsequently drafted counter-proposals, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they had produced an “updated and refined peace framework” during follow-up discussions in Geneva.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in Dublin, said he feared the U.S. might lose interest in the peace process and warned against negotiations taking place “behind Ukraine’s back.”

“There will be no easy solutions,” he said. “It is important that everything is fair and open.”

Just hours before meeting Witkoff and Kushner, Putin said Russia did not seek war with Europe but warned that any conflict would end “so swiftly” that negotiations afterward would be meaningless. He also threatened to cut Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to recent drone attacks on Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Putin’s remarks showed he was not prepared to end the war.

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Pope Leo: Palestinian state ‘only’ solution to Israeli conflict

Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

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Pope Leo said on Sunday that the only solution in the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinian people must include a Palestinian state, reaffirming the Vatican’s position.

“We all know that at this time Israel still does not accept that solution, but we see it as the only solution,” Leo, the first U.S. pope, told journalists on a flight from Turkey to Lebanon during his first in-flight press conference.

“We are also friends with Israel and we are seeking to be a mediating voice between the two parties that might help them close in on a solution with justice for everyone,” added the pope, speaking in Italian.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reaffirmed opposition to a Palestinian state after even its biggest ally the U.S. indicated support for Palestinian independence.

Leo spoke in a brief eight-minute press conference focused on his visit to Turkey, which he visited from Thursday to Sunday on his first overseas trip since election in May as leader of the 1.4 billion-member Catholic Church.

The pope said he and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed both the Israel-Palestinian and Ukraine-Russia conflicts. Turkey has an important role to play helping end both wars, Leo said.

During his visit to Turkey, the pope warned that humanity’s future was at risk because of the world’s unusual number of bloody conflicts and condemned violence in the name of religion.

Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

Turkey is predominantly Muslim but is also home to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, spiritual leader of the world’s 260 million Orthodox Christians.

Leo praised Turkey as an example of religious co-existence.

“People of different religions are able to live in peace,” said the pope. “That is one example of what I think we all would be looking for throughout the world.”

Leo is visiting Lebanon until Tuesday, when he returns to Rome.

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