Regional
Panic in Pakistan as India vows to cut off water supply over Kashmir
Islamabad has denied any role and said “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan … will be considered as an Act of War”.
Pakistani farmers have voiced concern about future water supplies after India on Wednesday suspended the World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Tropy of 1960, which ensures water for 80% of Pakistan’s farms.
India said the suspension would last until “Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.
This move comes after last week’s attack in Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of having been involved, stating two of the three militants who attacked tourists and killed 26 men were from Pakistan.
Islamabad has denied any role and said “any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan … will be considered as an Act of War”.
The treaty split the Indus and its tributaries between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Government officials and experts on both sides say India cannot stop water flows immediately, because the treaty has allowed it to only build hydropower plants without significant storage or dams on the three rivers allocated to Pakistan. But things could start changing in a few months, Reuters reported.
“We will ensure no drop of the Indus River’s water reaches Pakistan,” India’s water resources minister, Chandrakant Raghunath Paatil, said on X.
He did not respond to questions about the fears in Pakistan.
Two Indian government officials, who declined to be identified, said the country could within months start diverting the water for its own farms using canals while planning hydroelectric dams that could take four to seven years to finish.
Immediately, India will stop sharing data like hydrological flows at various sites of the rivers flowing through India, withhold flood warnings and skip annual meetings under the Permanent Indus Commission headed by one official each from the two countries, said Kushvinder Vohra, a recently retired head of India’s Central Water Commission.
“They will not have much information with them when the water is coming, how much is coming,” said Vohra, who was also India’s Indus Commissioner and now advises the government occasionally.
“Without the information, they cannot plan.”
And it is not just agriculture, a shortage of water will also hit electricity generation and potentially cripple the economy, economists say.
Vaqar Ahmed, economist and team lead with UK consulting firm Oxford Policy Management, said that Pakistan had underestimated the threat of India walking away from the treaty.
“India hasn’t got the kind of immediate infrastructure to halt the waterflows, especially during flood times, so this period creates a crucial window for Pakistan to address the inefficiencies in its water sector,” he said.
“There are a lot of inefficiencies, leakages.”
In recent years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been seeking to renegotiate the treaty and the two countries have been trying to settle some of their differences in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague over the size of the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric plants’ water storage area, Reuters reported.
“We can now pursue our projects in free will,” said Vohra.
In a letter on Thursday, India told Pakistan that circumstances had changed since the treaty was signed, including population increases and the need for more cleaner energy sources, referring to hydropower.
Regional
US used mobile launchers for missiles at Qatar base as Iran tensions rose, satellite pictures show
At al-Udeid, the Patriot missiles were visible parked mounted into M983 Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Trucks (HEMTT) at the start of February, Goodhind said.
U.S. forces in Qatar’s al-Udeid, the biggest U.S. base in the Middle East, put missiles into truck launchers as tensions with Iran ratcheted up since January, analysis of satellite images showed, meaning they could be moved more quickly, Reuters reported.
The decision to keep the Patriot missiles in mobile trucks rather than semi-static launcher stations — meaning they could rapidly deploy to strike or be moved defensively in case of an Iranian attack — shows how risks heightened as frictions grew.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Iran over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, its backing for allied groups in the Middle East and crushing of internal dissent, though talks to avert a war continue.
There are also U.S. bases in Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Turkey and on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned that in case of strikes on Iranian territory, they could retaliate against any U.S. base.
A comparison of satellite photographs in early February with those taken in January shows a recent build-up of aircraft and other military equipment across the region, said William Goodhind, a forensic imagery analyst with Contested Ground.
At al-Udeid, the Patriot missiles were visible parked mounted into M983 Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Trucks (HEMTT) at the start of February, Goodhind said.
“The decision to do so gives the Patriots much greater mobility, meaning they can be moved to an alternative site or repositioned with greater speed,” he said.
It was not clear on Tuesday whether the missiles were still in the HEMTTs.
A spokesperson for the Pentagon was not immediately available for comment.
Iran says it has replenished its missile stocks after two weeks of conflict last summer when Israel bombed its nuclear facilities and some other military targets, a campaign that the United States joined late on, read the report.
Iran has underground missile complexes near Tehran, as well as at Kermanshah, Semnan and near the Gulf coast.
The Iranian naval drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri was visible in satellite photographs on January 27 at sea some 5 km from Bandar Abbas. It was also visible near Bandar Abbas on February 10.
Here are changes at U.S. Middle East bases observed in satellite pictures:
AL-UDEID, QATAR:
Images from February 1 showed an RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, three C-130 Hercules aircraft, 18 KC 135 Stratotankers and seven C-17s. On January 17 there had been 14 Stratotankers and two C-17s.
Up to 10 MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems were parked in HEMTTs.
MUWAFFAQ, JORDAN:
Images from February 2 of one location in Muwaffaq showed 17 F15-E strike aircraft, 8 A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft, four C-130s and four unidentified helicopters. Images from January 16 were low resolution and it was not possible to identify all aircraft there.
February 2 images of a second location in Muwaffaq showed a C-17 and a C-130, as well as four EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft. Pictures of that location on January 25 had not shown any aircraft.
OTHER BASES:
At Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia, images on February 2 showed a C-5 Galaxy and a C-17 aircraft. Images on December 6 showed five aircraft that appeared to be C-130s.
Satellite images from February 6 showed seven more aircraft than had been observed on January 31 at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Images taken on January 25 and February 10 showed an increase in aircraft at Dukhan base in Oman.
Regional
Arab states condemn Israel’s move to expand powers in occupied West Bank
Israel’s security cabinet approved measures that will make it easier for Jewish settlers to purchase land in the West Bank and grant Israeli authorities greater powers in areas under Palestinian control.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates led regional condemnation on Monday of Israel’s decision to ease settlement expansion and broaden its authority across the occupied West Bank, a move critics say amounts to de facto annexation.
Israel’s security cabinet approved measures on Sunday that will make it easier for Jewish settlers to purchase land in the West Bank and grant Israeli authorities greater powers in areas nominally under Palestinian control, Reuters reported citing two senior Israeli ministers.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist figure in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, said the decisions would “continue to kill the idea of a Palestinian state.”
In a joint statement, foreign ministers from several Middle Eastern and Muslim-majority countries — including Egypt and Turkey — denounced the measures as illegal under international law and warned they would undermine prospects for a two-state solution and regional stability.
Jordan, Egypt, the UAE and Turkey all maintain diplomatic ties with Israel, while Saudi Arabia has said it will not normalise relations without the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Most countries view the West Bank, occupied by Israel since 1967, as the core of a future Palestinian state.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz and Smotrich said the cabinet had repealed a pre-1967 Jordanian-era law that kept land registries confidential and scrapped a permit requirement for land purchases, steps they said would simplify transactions for Jewish buyers.
Settlement watchdog Peace Now said the move violated international law and marked a significant step toward annexation. “This treats the West Bank as normal Israeli territory rather than occupied land,” said Hagit Ofran of the group.
The cabinet also expanded Israeli enforcement powers over water use, archaeological sites and environmental issues into Areas A and B of the West Bank — zones that, under the 1993 Oslo accords, are under Palestinian or joint control. Peace Now said the changes could pave the way for wider demolitions of Palestinian property and further restrictions on Palestinian development.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed “grave concern,” warning the measures were eroding the viability of a two-state solution, his spokesperson said.
In Hebron, Palestinians said the decisions would accelerate settlement growth and home demolitions. “It becomes easier to confiscate land, expand settlements and demolish Palestinian homes,” said Issa Amr of the group Youth Against Settlements.
Regional
Iran arrests at least four reform front politicians
The Islamic Iran Nation’s Union Party sought the release of secretary-general Azar Mansouri, the Shargh newspaper said on Monday, after her arrest along with other members of the Reform Front, an umbrella body of Iranian reformists and moderates.
A campaign of mass arrests and intimidation has led to the arrests of thousands as authorities seek to deter further protests after last month’s crackdown on the bloodiest unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
On Sunday, state media said three senior figures from Iran’s Reform Front were arrested, among them Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, Mohsen Aminzadeh, and Azar Mansouri, who acts as the front’s head, according to Reuters.
Shargh said at least two more Reform Front members were asked to report to the prosecutor’s office in Tehran’s Evin prison on Tuesday.
The Reform Front’s spokesperson, Javad Emam, was also arrested, Mansouri’s lawyer, Hojjat Kermani, said on Monday, adding that it was unclear what charges faced those detained.
“We basically don’t know what caused these arrests, because the Reform Front has not yet issued a statement about the recent events (protests),” Kermani told the Iranian Labour News Agency (ILNA). “Individuals may have commented on their own.”
On Sunday, the judiciary’s media outlet Mizan said “four important political elements supporting the Zionist (regime) and the United States” were indicted, but gave no details.
Tehran has blamed unrest-related violence on “rioters and armed terrorists” it says were backed by its key enemies, Israel and the United States.
Past Reform Front statements have been highly critical of authorities. After the 12-day war against Israel, its members warned that “incremental collapse” awaited the country if it did not adopt fundamental reforms.
Kermani said the recent arrests were not related to a judicial case launched against the Front after that statement, however.
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