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Gold surpasses $5,000, yen strengthens on intervention fear

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Gold surged past $5,000 per ounce on Monday, buoyed by safety flows amid dollar weakness following a turbulent week where tensions over Greenland and Iran rattled investors, while markets remained on tenterhooks after violent spikes in the yen.

The yen rose over 1% to 153.99 per dollar as of 0427 GMT, after sharp spikes on Friday sparked speculation over potential intervention. The New York Federal Reserve conducted rate checks on Friday, sources told Reuters, raising the chance of joint U.S.-Japan intervention to halt the currency’s slide.

“The market’s inclination is to short the yen but the possibility of co-ordination means it no longer is a one-way bet,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities in Singapore.

The prospect of joint intervention to support the yen pulled the dollar lower and broadly lifted other currencies.

Japan’s Nikkei dropped about 2% while S&P 500 futures fell 0.25% and European futures were 0.27% lower as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the week.

U.S. President Donald Trump provided temporary relief to markets last week by reversing tariff threats and downplaying potential forceful action against Greenland. However, further sanctions targeting Iran have reinforced market anxiety.

Increased U.S. pressure against Iran is pushing oil prices higher and lifting safe-haven gold to record peaks. Precious metals, including silver , have surged in a blistering rally so far this year, also aided by a softer dollar.

INTERVENTION CHATTER KEEPS YEN ALOFT

While authorities in Tokyo declined to comment on the yen’s wild swings, sources told Reuters about the rate checks on Friday, leaving traders on edge at the prospect of an intervention that could come any time.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Sunday her government will take necessary steps against speculative market moves.

Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at UBP, said the mere expectation of potential intervention could, in itself, contribute to some strengthening of the currency.

“The Japanese yen is likely to stabilise to some extent – though the catalysts for significant appreciation remain limited – while long-term yields are expected to face continued pressure at their current elevated levels.”

A steep bond market rout in Japan last week had put the spotlight on Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policy as she called a snap election that is due for February 8. The bond market has since calmed somewhat, but investors remain jittery.

The yen was broadly firmer against other currencies too on Monday, inching away from the record low against the euro and Swiss franc and multi-decade lows against sterling.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said the rate-check style warning could help reset positioning and remind the market there’s a line near 159–160.

“With the dollar starting to look softer, this is actually a cleaner window for Japan to lean against yen weakness. Intervention works better when it’s going with the broader USD tide, not fighting it.”

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell as much as 0.2% to a four-month low of 96.996 after dropping 0.8% on Friday in its biggest one-day drop since August.

Investor focus this week will also be on the Fed. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at a meeting overshadowed by a Trump administration criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

In commodities, oil prices were little changed after rising about 3% on Friday, with traders weighing the impact of Trump pressuring Iran through more sanctions on vessels that transport its oil.

Brent crude futures were flat at $65.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $61.1 per barrel.

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US sanctions and blockade measures disrupt Iran’s trade with Afghanistan and regional neighbors

The effects have also extended beyond Iran’s borders, affecting regional trade routes and cross-border commerce with neighboring countries, including Afghanistan.

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US naval blockade measures and economic sanctions against Iran are increasingly disrupting the country’s overland trade with Afghanistan and other regional neighbors, including Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Turkey, according to a US Treasury Department report cited by Axios.

The report said Washington aims to pressure Iranian officials into negotiations through economic restrictions and other measures targeting the country’s economy.

According to the Treasury Department, US sanctions and mounting economic pressure have significantly weakened Iran’s national currency, fueled inflation and disrupted commercial activities.

The effects have also extended beyond Iran’s borders, affecting regional trade routes and cross-border commerce with neighboring countries, including Afghanistan.

The developments have raised concerns over the potential economic impact on regional trade, particularly in countries that rely on commercial routes and trade links with Iran.

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Afghanistan inaugurates first phase of Kandahar cement factory

According to officials, the first phase of the factory has a daily production capacity of 1,500 metric tons of cement and is expected to generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs.

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Afghanistan has inaugurated the first phase of the Shorandam Cement Factory in Kandahar province, marking a step toward expanding domestic cement production and reducing reliance on imports.

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, officially opened the facility on Thursday at a ceremony attended by senior officials of the Islamic Emirate.

Speaking at the ceremony, Baradar said sustainable economic development requires the effective use of domestic resources and a shift from a consumer-based economy to a production-driven one.

He stressed the need to boost local production, reduce imports, expand exports and strengthen the country’s industrial sector.

According to officials, the first phase of the factory has a daily production capacity of 1,500 metric tons of cement and is expected to generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs. Work on the second phase is also expected to begin in the future.

Hidayatullah Badri, Minister of Mines and Petroleum, said cement production had resumed in Afghanistan for the first time since the Islamic Emirate returned to power.

He added that six major cement production projects are currently underway across the country, involving a combined investment of $662 million.

According to Badri, the projects are expected to create employment opportunities for around 15,000 people and meet nearly 50 percent of Afghanistan’s domestic cement demand once completed.

Islamic Emirate spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid also welcomed the factory’s inauguration, describing it as positive news for the country and emphasizing the importance of maintaining production quality and industrial standards.

Afghanistan currently relies heavily on imported cement to meet domestic demand. The expansion of local production is expected to reduce dependence on imports, support the construction industry and create employment opportunities.

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WFP report notes high food and fuel costs continue to pressure Afghan households

Pastoralist households also faced declining purchasing power. The sale of a one-year-old female sheep could buy 260 kilograms of low-priced wheat flour, 12% less than a year earlier.

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Rising food, fuel and agricultural input costs continue to strain Afghan households despite a relatively strong afghani (AFN), according to the World Food Programme’s (WFP) latest weekly market report.

The afghani traded at an average of 64.9 against the US dollar in the first week of October, remaining 2% stronger than a year earlier and 7% above its three-year average. However, several staple foods and essential agricultural inputs remained significantly more expensive than a year ago.

WFP’s report found that prices for Palawi rice were 17% higher than last year, while the lower-priced Sholae variety had risen by 31%. Cooking oil and sugar prices were also up 12% and 10%, respectively, while wheat grain and low-priced wheat flour were both 10% more expensive.

Fuel costs continued to add pressure, with diesel selling at an average of AFN 80.9 per litre, 3% higher than a year earlier and 14% above its three-year average. Fertiliser prices also remained elevated, with urea up 24% and diammonium phosphate (DAP) up 10% year-on-year.

The report highlighted growing pressure on household purchasing power as wages and employment opportunities weakened. Unskilled labour availability averaged just two days per week, 14% below the previous year and 21% below the three-year average. Daily wages for unskilled workers were also 5% lower than a year earlier.

As a result, an unskilled labourer’s daily wage could purchase an average of 9.9 kilograms of low-priced wheat flour, down 13% from a year earlier. The real purchasing power of unskilled labour households fell by 25% year-on-year and stood 30% below the three-year average.

Pastoralist households also faced declining purchasing power. The sale of a one-year-old female sheep could buy 260 kilograms of low-priced wheat flour, 12% less than a year earlier.

Some commodities recorded price declines during the week. Potato prices fell by 4.1%, onions by 3.1% and Palawi rice by 1.9%. However, potatoes remained 25% more expensive than a year earlier, while Palawi rice was 19% above its three-year average.

WFP said the in-kind food basket cost AFN 6,033 in the first week of October, 4% higher than a year earlier. The report also noted significant differences in prices between provinces, reflecting variations in transport costs, market supplies and seasonal availability.

The findings underscore continued pressure on Afghan households, as high essential commodity prices, weak labour availability and declining purchasing power limit access to food despite support from the stronger national currency.

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