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U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites set up “cat-and-mouse” hunt for missing uranium
The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.
The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear sites creates a conundrum for U.N. inspectors in Iran: how can you tell if enriched uranium stocks, some of them near weapons grade, were buried beneath the rubble or secretly hidden away?
Following last weekend’s attacks on three of Iran’s top nuclear sites – at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – President Donald Trump said the facilities had been “obliterated” by U.S. munitions, including bunker-busting bombs.
But the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Tehran’s nuclear program, has said it’s unclear exactly what damage was sustained at Fordow, a plant buried deep inside a mountain that produced the bulk of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday it was highly likely the sensitive centrifuges used to enrich uranium inside Fordow were badly damaged. It’s far less clear whether Iran’s 9 tonnes of enriched uranium – more than 400 kg of it enriched to close to weapons grade – were destroyed.
Western governments are scrambling to determine what’s become of it.
Reuters spoke to more than a dozen current and former officials involved in efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear program who said the bombing may have provided the perfect cover for Iran to make its uranium stockpiles disappear and any IAEA investigation would likely be lengthy and arduous.
Olli Heinonen, previously the IAEA’s top inspector from 2005 to 2010, said the search will probably involve complicated recovery of materials from damaged buildings as well as forensics and environmental sampling, which take a long time.
“There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” said Heinonen, who dealt extensively with Iran while at the IAEA and now works at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington.
Iran’s more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity – a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons grade – are enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.
Even a fraction of that left unaccounted for would be a grave concern for Western powers that believe Iran is at least keeping the option of nuclear weapons open.
There are indications Iran may have moved some of its enriched uranium before it could be struck.
IAEA chief Grossi said Iran informed him on June 13, the day of Israel’s first attacks, that it was taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials. While it did not elaborate, he said that suggests it was moved.
A Western diplomat involved in the dossier, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said most of the enriched uranium at Fordow would appear to have been moved days in advance of the attacks, “almost as if they knew it was coming”.
Some experts have said a line of vehicles including trucks visible on satellite imagery outside Fordow before it was hit suggests enriched uranium there was moved elsewhere, though U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday said he was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved it.
Trump has also dismissed such concerns. In an interview due to air on Sunday with Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”, he insisted the Iranians “didn’t move anything.”
“It’s very dangerous to do. It is very heavy – very, very heavy. It’s a very hard thing to do,” Trump said. “Plus we didn’t give much notice because they didn’t know we were coming until just, you know, then.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.
A second Western diplomat said it would be a major challenge to verify the condition of the uranium stockpile, citing a long list of past disputes between the IAEA and Tehran, including Iran’s failure to credibly explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.
“It’ll be a game of cat and mouse.”
Iran says it has fulfilled all its obligations towards the watchdog.
Before Israel launched its 12-day military campaign aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, the IAEA had regular access to Iran’s enrichment sites and monitored what was inside them around the clock as part of the 191-nation Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, to which Iran is a party.
Now, rubble and ash blur the picture.
What’s more, Iran has threatened to stop working with the IAEA. Furious at the non-proliferation regime’s failure to protect it from strikes many countries see as unlawful, Iran’s parliament voted on Wednesday to suspend cooperation.
Tehran says a resolution this month passed by the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations paved the way for Israel’s attacks, which began the next day, by providing an element of diplomatic cover. The IAEA denies that.
Iran has repeatedly denied that it has an active program to develop a nuclear bomb. And U.S. intelligence – dismissed by Trump before the airstrikes – had said there was no evidence Tehran was taking steps toward developing one.
However, experts say there is no reason for enriching uranium to 60% for a civilian nuclear program, which can run on less than 5% enrichment.
As a party to the NPT, Iran must account for its stock of enriched uranium. The IAEA then has to verify Iran’s account by means including inspections, but its powers are limited – it inspects Iran’s declared nuclear facilities but cannot carry out snap inspections at undeclared locations.
Iran has an unknown number of extra centrifuges stored at locations the U.N. nuclear watchdog is unaware of, the IAEA has said, with which it might be able to set up a new or secret enrichment site.
That makes hunting down the material that can be enriched further, particularly that closest to bomb grade, all the more important.
“Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium may not have been part of the ‘mission’ but it is a significant part of the proliferation risk – particularly if centrifuges are unaccounted for,” Kelsey Davenport of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said on X on Friday.
The IAEA can and does receive intelligence from member states, which include the United States and Israel, but says it takes nothing at face value and independently verifies tip-offs.
Having pummelled the sites housing the uranium, Israel and the U.S. are seen as the countries most likely to accuse Iran of hiding it or restarting enrichment, officials say.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
U.N. inspectors’ futile hunt for large caches of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which preceded the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, showed the enormous difficulty of verifying foreign powers’ assertions about hidden stockpiles of material when there is little tangible information to go on.
As in Iraq, inspectors could end up chasing shadows.
“If the Iranians come clean with the 400 kg of HEU (highly enriched uranium) then the problem is manageable, but if they don’t then nobody will ever be sure what happened to it,” a third Western diplomat said.
The IAEA, which answers to 180 member states, has said it cannot guarantee Iran’s nuclear development is entirely peaceful, but has no credible indications of a coordinated weapons program.
The U.S. this week backed the IAEA’s verification and monitoring work and urged Tehran to ensure its inspectors in the country are safe.
It is a long journey from there to accounting for every gram of enriched uranium, the IAEA’s standard.
The above-ground plant at Natanz, the smaller of the two facilities enriching uranium up to 60 percent, was flattened in the strikes, the IAEA said, suggesting a small portion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile may have been destroyed.
Fordow, Iran’s most deeply buried enrichment plant, which was producing the bulk of 60%-enriched uranium, was first seriously hit last weekend when the United States dropped its biggest conventional bombs on it. The damage to its underground halls is unclear.
An underground area in Isfahan where much of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium was stored was also bombed, causing damage to the tunnel entrances leading to it.
The agency has not been able to carry out inspections since Israel’s bombing campaign began, leaving the outside world with more questions than answers.
Grossi said on Wednesday the conditions at the bombed sites would make it difficult for IAEA inspectors to work there – suggesting it could take time. “There is rubble, there could be unexploded ordnance,” he said.
Heinonen, the former chief IAEA inspector, said it was vital the agency be transparent in real time about what its inspectors have been able to verify independently, including any uncertainties, and what remained unknown.
“Member states can then make their own risk assessments,” he said.
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Gas leak caused blast in Iran’s Bandar Abbas, Iranian media say
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
An explosion that hit a building in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Saturday was caused by a gas leak, according to a preliminary assessment, the local head of the fire department said.
Iranian state media reported that at least two people have been killed and 14 injured in the blast, which comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s crackdown earlier this month on nationwide protests and over the country’s nuclear programme.
“This (gas leak) is the preliminary assessment. My colleagues will give more details in the next few hours,” Mohammad Amin Liaqat, the fire department chief, said in a video published by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency.
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
Reuters was able to verify the location by analysing buildings, trees, and road layout, which matched satellite and file imagery. Reuters could not independently verify the date the video was filmed.
Separately, four people were killed after another gas explosion in the city of Ahvaz near the Iraqi border, according to state-run Tehran Times. No further information was immediately available.
The explosions highlighted the jittery mood prevailing in Iran amid its clerical rulers’ standoff with the Trump administration.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on January 22 an “armada” was heading toward Iran. Multiple sources said on Friday that Trump was weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces.
Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian security official, said on X on Saturday that work on a framework for negotiations with the United States was progressing, downplaying what he described as an “atmosphere created by artificial media warfare.”
Trump told Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich that Iran was “negotiating, so we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich wrote on X.
“You know, the last time they negotiated, we had to take out their nuclear, didn’t work, you know. Then we took it out a different way, and we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich quoted Trump as saying.
Before the reports of the two blasts on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused U.S., Israeli and European leaders of exploiting Iran’s economic problems, inciting unrest and providing people with the means to “tear the nation apart.”
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said social media reports alleging that a Revolutionary Guard navy commander had been targeted in the Bandar Abbas explosion were “completely false.”
Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel was not involved in Saturday’s blasts. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Bandar Abbas, home to Iran’s most important container port, lies on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway between Iran and Oman which handles about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.
The port suffered a major explosion last April that killed dozens and injured over 1,000 people. An investigative committee at the time blamed the blast on shortcomings in adherence to principles of civil defence and security.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide protests that erupted in December over economic hardship and have posed one of the toughest challenges to the country’s clerical rulers.
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has said at least 6,500 people were killed in the protests, including hundreds of security personnel.
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Iran ready for ‘fair’ talks with US but not on defence capabilities
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
Iran is prepared for the resumption of talks with the United States, but they should be fair and not include Iran’s defence capabilities, Iran’s chief diplomat said on Friday, as regional powers work to prevent military conflict between the two foes, Reuters reported.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he planned to speak with Iran, even as the U.S. sent another warship to the Middle East and the Pentagon chief said the military would be ready to carry out whatever the president decided.
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
One of the main U.S. demands as a condition for resuming talks with Iran is curbing its missile programme, a senior Iranian official told Reuters last week. Iran rejects that demand.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul after talks with his Turkish counterpart, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready to participate in “fair and equitable” negotiations, but added there were currently no meetings with U.S. officials arranged.
“Iran has no problem with negotiations, but negotiations cannot take place under the shadow of threats. They must certainly set aside their threats and change their approach toward a fair and equitable negotiation, as Mr. Trump himself said in his post,” he said.
“I should also state unequivocally that Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities — and Iran’s missiles — will never be the subject of any negotiations,” he added.
“We will preserve and expand our defensive capabilities to whatever extent is necessary to defend the country,” Araqchi said.
Regional allies, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, read the report.
In response to U.S. threats of military action, Araqchi said Tehran was ready for either negotiations or warfare, and also ready to engage with regional countries to promote stability and peace.
Araqchi and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said they had been speaking to each other almost every day to discuss the tensions.
U.S. officials say Trump his options but has not decided whether to strike Iran.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters in its crackdown on the countrywide demonstrations over economic privations and political repression, but the protests have since abated.
Israel’s Ynet news website said on Friday that a U.S. Navy destroyer had docked at the Israeli port of Eilat.
NATO member Turkey shares a border with Iran and opposes any foreign intervention there. It has called for U.S.-Iran dialogue to avoid further destabilisation and has been in touch with both sides to seek a solution.
Earlier on Friday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in a call that Ankara was ready to play a “facilitator” role between the sides.
Speaking alongside Araqchi, Fidan said he had long discussions on the issue with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on Thursday and would keep lines open with Washington to avoid conflict and the isolation of Iran, Reuters reported.
Fidan said U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations must restart and would pave the way to lifting sanctions on Iran. “We call the parties to the negotiating table” to address the issues “one by one,” he said.
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Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
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