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U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites set up “cat-and-mouse” hunt for missing uranium

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.

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The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear sites creates a conundrum for U.N. inspectors in Iran: how can you tell if enriched uranium stocks, some of them near weapons grade, were buried beneath the rubble or secretly hidden away?

Following last weekend’s attacks on three of Iran’s top nuclear sites – at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – President Donald Trump said the facilities had been “obliterated” by U.S. munitions, including bunker-busting bombs.

But the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Tehran’s nuclear program, has said it’s unclear exactly what damage was sustained at Fordow, a plant buried deep inside a mountain that produced the bulk of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday it was highly likely the sensitive centrifuges used to enrich uranium inside Fordow were badly damaged. It’s far less clear whether Iran’s 9 tonnes of enriched uranium – more than 400 kg of it enriched to close to weapons grade – were destroyed.

Western governments are scrambling to determine what’s become of it.

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen current and former officials involved in efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear program who said the bombing may have provided the perfect cover for Iran to make its uranium stockpiles disappear and any IAEA investigation would likely be lengthy and arduous.

Olli Heinonen, previously the IAEA’s top inspector from 2005 to 2010, said the search will probably involve complicated recovery of materials from damaged buildings as well as forensics and environmental sampling, which take a long time.

“There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” said Heinonen, who dealt extensively with Iran while at the IAEA and now works at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington.

Iran’s more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity – a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons grade – are enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

Even a fraction of that left unaccounted for would be a grave concern for Western powers that believe Iran is at least keeping the option of nuclear weapons open.

There are indications Iran may have moved some of its enriched uranium before it could be struck.

IAEA chief Grossi said Iran informed him on June 13, the day of Israel’s first attacks, that it was taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials. While it did not elaborate, he said that suggests it was moved.

A Western diplomat involved in the dossier, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said most of the enriched uranium at Fordow would appear to have been moved days in advance of the attacks, “almost as if they knew it was coming”.

Some experts have said a line of vehicles including trucks visible on satellite imagery outside Fordow before it was hit suggests enriched uranium there was moved elsewhere, though U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday said he was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved it.

Trump has also dismissed such concerns. In an interview due to air on Sunday with Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”, he insisted the Iranians “didn’t move anything.”

“It’s very dangerous to do. It is very heavy – very, very heavy. It’s a very hard thing to do,” Trump said. “Plus we didn’t give much notice because they didn’t know we were coming until just, you know, then.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.

A second Western diplomat said it would be a major challenge to verify the condition of the uranium stockpile, citing a long list of past disputes between the IAEA and Tehran, including Iran’s failure to credibly explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

“It’ll be a game of cat and mouse.”

Iran says it has fulfilled all its obligations towards the watchdog.

Before Israel launched its 12-day military campaign aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, the IAEA had regular access to Iran’s enrichment sites and monitored what was inside them around the clock as part of the 191-nation Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, to which Iran is a party.

Now, rubble and ash blur the picture.

What’s more, Iran has threatened to stop working with the IAEA. Furious at the non-proliferation regime’s failure to protect it from strikes many countries see as unlawful, Iran’s parliament voted on Wednesday to suspend cooperation.

Tehran says a resolution this month passed by the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations paved the way for Israel’s attacks, which began the next day, by providing an element of diplomatic cover. The IAEA denies that.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it has an active program to develop a nuclear bomb. And U.S. intelligence – dismissed by Trump before the airstrikes – had said there was no evidence Tehran was taking steps toward developing one.

However, experts say there is no reason for enriching uranium to 60% for a civilian nuclear program, which can run on less than 5% enrichment.

As a party to the NPT, Iran must account for its stock of enriched uranium. The IAEA then has to verify Iran’s account by means including inspections, but its powers are limited – it inspects Iran’s declared nuclear facilities but cannot carry out snap inspections at undeclared locations.

Iran has an unknown number of extra centrifuges stored at locations the U.N. nuclear watchdog is unaware of, the IAEA has said, with which it might be able to set up a new or secret enrichment site.

That makes hunting down the material that can be enriched further, particularly that closest to bomb grade, all the more important.

“Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium may not have been part of the ‘mission’ but it is a significant part of the proliferation risk – particularly if centrifuges are unaccounted for,” Kelsey Davenport of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said on X on Friday.

The IAEA can and does receive intelligence from member states, which include the United States and Israel, but says it takes nothing at face value and independently verifies tip-offs.

Having pummelled the sites housing the uranium, Israel and the U.S. are seen as the countries most likely to accuse Iran of hiding it or restarting enrichment, officials say.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

U.N. inspectors’ futile hunt for large caches of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which preceded the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, showed the enormous difficulty of verifying foreign powers’ assertions about hidden stockpiles of material when there is little tangible information to go on.

As in Iraq, inspectors could end up chasing shadows.

“If the Iranians come clean with the 400 kg of HEU (highly enriched uranium) then the problem is manageable, but if they don’t then nobody will ever be sure what happened to it,” a third Western diplomat said.

The IAEA, which answers to 180 member states, has said it cannot guarantee Iran’s nuclear development is entirely peaceful, but has no credible indications of a coordinated weapons program.

The U.S. this week backed the IAEA’s verification and monitoring work and urged Tehran to ensure its inspectors in the country are safe.

It is a long journey from there to accounting for every gram of enriched uranium, the IAEA’s standard.

The above-ground plant at Natanz, the smaller of the two facilities enriching uranium up to 60 percent, was flattened in the strikes, the IAEA said, suggesting a small portion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile may have been destroyed.

Fordow, Iran’s most deeply buried enrichment plant, which was producing the bulk of 60%-enriched uranium, was first seriously hit last weekend when the United States dropped its biggest conventional bombs on it. The damage to its underground halls is unclear.

An underground area in Isfahan where much of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium was stored was also bombed, causing damage to the tunnel entrances leading to it.

The agency has not been able to carry out inspections since Israel’s bombing campaign began, leaving the outside world with more questions than answers.

Grossi said on Wednesday the conditions at the bombed sites would make it difficult for IAEA inspectors to work there – suggesting it could take time. “There is rubble, there could be unexploded ordnance,” he said.

Heinonen, the former chief IAEA inspector, said it was vital the agency be transparent in real time about what its inspectors have been able to verify independently, including any uncertainties, and what remained unknown.

“Member states can then make their own risk assessments,” he said.

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Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir in spotlight over Trump’s Gaza plan

Munir was earlier this month anointed chief of the defence forces to head the air force and navy as well, with a job extension until 2030.

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Pakistan’s most powerful military chief in decades faces the toughest test of his newly amassed powers as Washington pushes Islamabad to contribute troops to the Gaza stabilisation force, a move analysts say could spark domestic backlash.

Field Marshal Asim Munir is expected to fly to Washington to meet President Donald Trump in the coming weeks for a third meeting in six months that will likely focus on the Gaza force, two sources told Reuters, one of them a key player in the general’s economic diplomacy.

Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan calls for a force from Muslim nations to oversee a transition period for reconstruction and economic recovery in the war-torn Palestinian territory, decimated by over two years of Israeli military bombardment.

Many countries are wary of the mission to demilitarise Gaza’s Islamist militant group Hamas, which could drag them into the conflict and enrage their pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli populations.

But Munir has built a close relationship with the mercurial Trump to repair years of mistrust between Washington and Islamabad. In June, he was rewarded with a White House lunch – the first time a U.S. president hosted Pakistan’s army chief alone, without civilian officials.

“Not contributing (to the Gaza stabilisation force) could annoy Trump, which is no small matter for a Pakistani state that appears quite keen to remain in his good graces – in great part to secure U.S. investment and security aid,” said Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow, South Asia at Washington-based Atlantic Council.

Pakistan, the world’s only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, has a battle-hardened military having gone to war with arch-rival India three times and a brief conflict this summer.

It has also tackled insurgencies in its far-flung regions and is currently embroiled in a bruising war with Islamist militants who it says are operating from Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s military strength means “there is a greater pressure on Munir to deliver his capacity,” said author and defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.

Pakistan’s military, foreign office and information ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters. The White House also did not respond to a request for a comment.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said last month that Islamabad could consider contributing troops for peacekeeping but disarming Hamas “is not our job.”

Munir was earlier this month anointed chief of the defence forces to head the air force and navy as well, with a job extension until 2030.

He will retain his field marshal title forever, as well as enjoy lifetime immunity from any criminal prosecution under the constitutional amendments that Pakistan’s civilian government pushed through parliament late last month.

“Few people in Pakistan enjoy the luxury of being able to take risks more than Munir. He has unbridled power, now constitutionally protected,” Kugelman added.

“Ultimately, it will be Munir’s rules, and his rules only.”

Over the past few weeks, Munir has met military and civilian leaders from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and Qatar, according to the military’s statements, which Siddiqa said appeared to be consultations on the Gaza force.

But the big concern at home is that the involvement of Pakistan troops in Gaza under a U.S.-backed plan could re-ignite protests from Pakistan’s Islamist parties that are deeply opposed to the U.S. and Israel.

The Islamists have street power to mobilise thousands.

A powerful and violent anti-Israel Islamist party that fights for upholding Pakistan’s ultra-strict blasphemy laws was banned in October.

Authorities arrested its leaders and over 1,500 supporters and seized its assets and bank accounts in an ongoing crackdown, officials said.

While Islamabad has outlawed the group, its ideology is still alive.

The party of former jailed premier, Imran Khan, whose supporters won the most seats in the 2024 national elections and has wide public support, also has an axe to grind against Munir.

Abdul Basit, Senior Associate Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said if things escalated once the Gaza force was on the ground, it would cause problems quickly.

“People will say ‘Asim Munir is doing Israel’s bidding’ – it will be foolhardy of anyone not to see it coming.”

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Two US soldiers and an interpreter killed in suspected Daesh attack in Syria

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Two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed in Syria on Saturday by a suspected Daesh attacker who targeted a convoy of American and Syrian forces before being shot dead, the U.S. military said.

The attack was barely a month after Syria announced it had signed a political cooperation agreement with the U.S.-led coalition against Daesh, which coincided with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to the White House, Reuters reported.

The attacker was a member of the Syrian security forces, three local officials told Reuters. A Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson told a state-run television channel that the man did not have a leadership role in the security forces.

“On December 10, an evaluation was issued indicating that this attacker might hold extremist ideas, and a decision regarding him was due to be issued tomorrow, on Sunday,” the spokesperson, Noureddine el-Baba, told Syrian television channel Al-Ikhbariya.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed “very serious retaliation,” mourning the loss of “three great patriots”. He described the incident in remarks to reporters as a “terrible” attack.

CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS THE ATTACKER WAS KILLED

Three U.S. soldiers were also wounded in the attack, the U.S. military’s Central Command said.

In a statement, Central Command said the attack by a lone gunman occurred “as the soldiers were conducting a key leader engagement” in the central Syrian town of Palmyra. “Partner forces” killed the attacker, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth wrote in a social media post.

A senior U.S. official said initial assessments indicated that Daesh probably carried out the attack, although the militant group did not immediately claim responsibility.

It took place in an area not controlled by the Syrian government, the official said.

Baba said Syria had warned about the possibility of an Daesh attack in that region but that “coalition forces did not take the Syrian warnings… into account.”

He said Syria would determine whether the attacker was linked to Daesh or merely subscribed to the group’s ideology.

The soldiers’ names will be withheld until 24 hours after the next-of-kin notification, the U.S. military said.

US ENVOY CONDEMNS THE ATTACK

Syrian state news agency SANA quoted a security source as saying two Syrian service personnel were injured, without providing further details. The source told SANA that American helicopters evacuated the injured to a U.S. base in Syria’s Al-Tanf region near the Iraqi border.

Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, condemned the attack.

“We mourn the loss of three brave U.S. service members and civilian personnel and wish a speedy recovery to the Syrian troops wounded in the attack,” Barrack said in a statement. “We remain committed to defeating terrorism with our Syrian partners.”

The U.S.-led coalition has carried out air strikes and ground operations in Syria targeting Islamic State suspects in recent months, often with the involvement of Syria’s security forces. Syria last month also carried out a nationwide campaign arresting more than 70 people accused of links to the group.

The United States has troops stationed in northeastern Syria as part of a decade-long effort to help a Kurdish-led force there.

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Pakistan’s ex-spy chief jailed for 14 years in rare military rebuke

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A military court in Pakistan jailed former spy chief Faiz Hamid for 14 years on four charges including interference in politics, the army said on Thursday, in a rare conviction of a once-powerful general in the South Asian nation.

Hamid, in custody and under trial since August last year, was the chief of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency from 2019 to 2021 under jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and the two were considered close allies.”The accused was tried on four charges,” the military said in a statement, Reuters reported.

The charges ranged from engaging in political activities and violating the Official Secrets Act in a way detrimental to safety and state interest to misuse of authority and resources as well as causing wrongful loss to individuals, it added.

TIES TO JAILED FORMER PM IMRAN KHAN

The former general was found guilty on all the charges, the military said, without detailing the incidents. His conviction followed “lengthy and laborious legal proceedings”, it added, and Hamid has a right of appeal.

He also faces a separate investigation of his role in May 2023 attacks by thousands of Khan’s supporters on scores of military installations and offices to protest against the arrest of the 72-year-old former cricket star.

Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Hamid had crossed “red lines” and acted as an advisor to Khan’s party to try to create chaos in the country.

Hamid’s lawyers or family could not be reached for comment. Khan’s PTI party did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Khan has been in jail since August 2023.

Khan and nearly 150 of his party leaders and supporters have already been indicted by an anti-terrorism court on charges of inciting the attacks that also targeted military headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi.

Khan and his associates deny the charges.

Hamid’s close ties to Khan, who blames the military for ousting him from power in 2022, were a source of tension between the cricketer-turned-politician and the military.

The military, which has directly ruled the nation of 241 million for more than three decades of its 77-year independent history, plays a big role in making or breaking governments.

 

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