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Three million Afghans could return this year: UN

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Three million Afghans could return to their country this year, a UN refugee official said Friday, warning that the repatriation flow is placing intense pressure on an already major humanitarian crisis.

Iran and Pakistan have introduced new policies affecting displaced Afghans, with Tehran already having given four million “illegal” Afghans until July 6 to leave Iranian territory.

“What we are seeing is the undignified, disorganized and massive exodus of Afghans from both countries, which is generating enormous pressures on the homeland that is willing to receive them and yet utterly unprepared to do so,” the UNHCR representative in Afghanistan, Arafat Jamal, said during a video press conference from Kabul, AFP reported.

“Of concern to us is this scale, the intensity and the manner in which returns are occurring.”

Over 1.6 million Afghans have already returned from Pakistan and Iran this year, the large majority from Iran, Jamal added. The figure already exceeds the UNHCR’s initial forecasts of 1.4 million for 2025.

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees now estimates three million coming into Afghanistan this year, Jamal said.

The UN agency said over 30,000 people per day have streamed across the Islam Qala border into Afghanistan, with 50,000 crossing on July 4 alone.

“Many of these returnees are arriving having been abruptly uprooted and having undergone an arduous, exhausting and degrading journey. They arrive tired, disoriented, brutalized and often in despair,” Jamal said.

The United Nations has taken emergency measures to reinforce water and sanitation systems intended to serve 7,000 to 10,000 people per day, as well as vaccinations and nutrition services.

Many who have crossed the border have reported pressure from Iranian authorities, including arrests and expulsions.

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Russia denies mediating Pakistan’s ties with India and Afghanistan

The comments were issued in written responses ahead of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s annual press conference, after questions could not be addressed due to time constraints.

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Russia has said it is not acting as a mediator in Pakistan’s relations with India and Afghanistan, but is willing to offer assistance if asked.

In remarks published by the Foreign Ministry, Moscow said disputes should be resolved bilaterally, in line with the 1972 Simla Agreement and the 1999 Lahore Declaration.

The comments were issued in written responses ahead of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s annual press conference, after questions could not be addressed due to time constraints.

On relations with Pakistan, Russia said political contacts intensified in 2025, including a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China.

Moscow highlighted growing economic cooperation, citing projects such as reviving the Karachi steel plant, collaboration in pharmaceuticals including insulin production, trial freight routes under the International North-South Transport Corridor, and potential Russian involvement in Pakistan’s oil and gas sector. A bilateral trade and economic cooperation programme through 2030 is also expected to be adopted.

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UNDP warns Afghanistan’s new development strategy faces major risks

The plan targets 3–5 percent annual economic growth, a 10 percent rise in exports, $5 billion in foreign investment by 2030, and expanded infrastructure, energy and extractive industries.

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The UN Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that Afghanistan’s newly launched National Development Strategy (ANDS 2025–2030) is unlikely to achieve its goals unless deep structural challenges are urgently addressed.

In an analysis of the first national development plan introduced since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in 2021, UNDP said the strategy provides an important framework for allocating scarce domestic resources in the absence of international aid.

The plan targets 3–5 percent annual economic growth, a 10 percent rise in exports, $5 billion in foreign investment by 2030, and expanded infrastructure, energy and extractive industries.

However, UNDP cautioned that overlapping crises—including lack of international recognition, a severe humanitarian situation, mass returnees and climate shocks—pose serious risks to implementation.

The agency highlighted two critical constraints: restrictions on women and energy shortages.

It noted that bans on girls’ education and limits on women’s work and mobility have slashed female economic participation, making growth and shared prosperity unattainable.

It also warned that acute energy insecurity—current electricity supply is just 0.7 gigawatts against demand of five—continues to undermine industrial development.

UNDP concluded that without reversing restrictions on women and closing the energy gap, the strategy is likely to remain aspirational rather than transformative.

The IEA meanwhile has not yet commented on this report.

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UNSC poised to extend mandate of Afghanistan sanctions monitoring team

According to the report, the current mandate of the Monitoring Team is set to expire on February 17.

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The United Nations Security Council has reported that it is expected to vote later this month on a draft resolution to extend the mandate of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which assists the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee.

According to the report, the current mandate of the Monitoring Team is set to expire on February 17.

The 1988 Sanctions Committee is responsible for enforcing measures including an assets freeze, travel bans, and an arms embargo against individuals and groups associated with the Islamic Emirate.

The committee also manages the sanctions list, reviews exemption requests, and supports UN member states in implementing the sanctions regime through the Monitoring Team’s assessments, reports, and recommendations.

The anticipated vote comes as the Security Council continues to review the effectiveness and scope of international sanctions related to Afghanistan.

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