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World Banks says Afghanistan’s economy adjusting to new realities

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The World Bank said in it’s latest Afghanistan Development Update report that the country’s economy is adjusting to a “new normal” following the collapse of the former government and take over by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

According to the report, a sharp decline in public spending, lower household incomes, and reduced consumption caused aggregate demand to fall, while disruptions in the payment system and supply constraints further hampered private sector activities, initially forcing many businesses to close or scale down their operations.

The report noted that preliminary statistics on the gross domestic product (GDP) show that the economy contracted by about 20 percent in 2021.

However, the resumption of off-budget international support for humanitarian needs and basic services helped mitigate some of the negative impacts over the past year.

The report concludes that Afghanistan’s economy is now much smaller than before after contracting significantly. The economy has now reached a point where it is likely to plateau.

The World Bank stated that while inflation remains high, some indicators have improved: exports have increased, exchange-rate volatility has reduced, and domestic revenue collection is relatively healthy.

In addition, private businesses are adjusting to the new operating environment.

“While there are signs of economic stabilization and resilience of Afghan businesses, the country continues to face enormous social and economic challenges that are impacting heavily on the welfare of the Afghan people, especially women, girls, and minorities,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.

“Living conditions showed slight improvements in the past few months, but deprivation remains very high across the country, and persistent inflation might further erode any welfare gains,” she added.

The report projects that the real GDP in 2022 will contract further, with an accumulated contraction of close to 30-35 percent between 2021 and 2022.

“A range of economic and political scenarios is possible for Afghanistan’s future. While all scenarios depend on continued off-budget aid from the international community, a more upside and sustainable trajectory requires actions by the interim Taliban (IEA) administration to unlock much-needed economic integration and domestic opportunities for the private sector to create jobs for the Afghan people,” added Good.

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Russia almost doubles LPG exports to Central Asia, Afghanistan this year

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Russia has almost doubled exports of liquefied petroleum gas in the January – November period to ex-Soviet republics in Central Asia and Afghanistan to 1.016 million metric tons, Reuters reported citing sources on Friday.

Moscow has had to divert supplies of LPG, or propane and butane, from Europe, which introduced restrictions on LPG imports from Russia in December 2024 over the war in Ukraine.

Traders said supplies to Afghanistan, as well as to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan now account for around 36% of Russia’s total LPG exports, up from 19% in 2024.

Afghanistan is Russia’s largest buyer of LPG in that region. In July, Russia accepted the credentials of a new ambassador of Afghanistan, making it the first nation to recognise the country’s Islamic Emirate government.

According to the sources, supplies of Russia’s LPG to the country, including from Kazrosgaz, a joint venture with Kazakhstan, have jumped 1.5 times in the first 11 months of the year to 418,000 tons.

Traders said that Russia’s LPG supplies to Afghanistan have increased partially at the expense of declining supplies from Iran, which has been sanctioned by the United States.

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Major power projects launched in Herat

Baradar urged contracting companies and technical teams to complete the projects with high quality and within the specified timeframe.

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Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, on Thursday announced the launch of four major electricity projects and the inauguration of five others in Herat province, with a total investment valued at 3.98 billion afghanis.

Speaking at an official ceremony, Baradar described the projects as vital for Afghanistan’s industrial and economic development. He said that once completed, the projects will provide 24/7 electricity to all industrial parks in Herat, as well as to commercial centers, rural areas, and residential neighborhoods, ensuring stable and reliable power supply.

Baradar also pledged incentives for investors in cold storage facilities, announcing a five-year tax exemption and guaranteeing uninterrupted electricity supply by Afghanistan’s power utility. He encouraged both domestic and foreign investors to take advantage of these opportunities.

Emphasizing the Islamic Emirate’s balanced foreign policy, Baradar said the government’s main focus remains economic growth, security stability, and good governance, urging the international community to pursue engagement with Afghanistan instead of restrictive policies.

Among the projects inaugurated is a 130-kilometer-long 220-kilovolt power transmission line from Turkmenistan, along with the construction of four substations in the districts of Karukh, Pashtun Zarghun, Obey, and Chesht-e-Sharif, which will supply electricity to around 40,000 households.

Newly launched projects include the construction of the Pul-e-Hashemi substation, expansion of the 24 Hoot Martyrs substation, creation of a second line at the Noor-ul-Jihad substation, and the extension of power transmission lines linking the Pul-e-Hashemi, Noor-ul-Jihad, and 24 Hoot Martyrs substations.

Baradar urged contracting companies and technical teams to complete the projects with high quality and within the specified timeframe.

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Sharp drop in exports to Afghanistan drives Pakistan’s trade deficit surge

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is actively seeking alternative trade routes and partnerships to reduce future reliance on Pakistan’s commercial channels and strengthen its economic independence.

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Pakistan trade

Recent data from Pakistan’s central bank reveals that a sharp decline in exports to Afghanistan has become a key factor behind the country’s growing trade deficit, challenging previous claims by Pakistani officials that halting trade with Afghanistan would not harm their economy.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the trade deficit with nine neighboring countries increased by more than 39 percent in the first five months of the 2025–2026 fiscal year, rising from $4.4 billion to $6.2 billion. The report highlights that reduced exports to countries such as China and Afghanistan played a central role in this increase.

Exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan fell dramatically by over 94 percent during this period, dropping from $408 million last year to approximately $210 million. Economic analysts note that Afghanistan has historically been one of Pakistan’s key export markets, particularly for food items, cement, medicine, and daily-use goods—products that cannot be easily replaced.

The steep decline follows the complete suspension of trade between the two countries in October 2025. Despite previous statements by Pakistani officials asserting that reduced or halted trade with Afghanistan would not negatively impact Pakistan’s economy, the latest figures suggest otherwise.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan is actively seeking alternative trade routes and partnerships to reduce future reliance on Pakistan’s commercial channels and strengthen its economic independence.

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