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Houthi advance in Yemen puts U.S. in a new bind

The U.S. administration can’t afford to have the Houthis close ​the strait, driving up energy prices and disrupting global trade.

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A lightning offensive by the Iran-aligned Houthis has put the militants in a position to control a crucial Middle East waterway, creating a major new problem for U.S. President Donald ​Trump as his war with Iran grinds on in its seventh month, Reuters reported.

Widening the Middle East conflict, Houthi fighters have advanced south along Yemen’s coast, increasing their ability to choke off the Bab el-Mandeb ‌Strait — the “Gate of Tears” at the mouth of the Red Sea — giving Tehran potential leverage over both of the region’s main oil-shipping corridors.

The militants reached the island of Perim on Friday, in the middle of the strait between Yemen and Africa. That is bad news for Saudi Arabia, which has been shipping much of its oil from Red Sea ports since the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula.

It also comes at a difficult time for Trump, who is already grappling with record-low approval ratings and searching ​for a way out of the conflict, most recently by announcing an economic pressure campaign designed to force concessions from Iran’s government.

High U.S. gasoline prices driven by the conflict have jeopardized his Republican Party’s chances of keeping ​control of Congress in the November midterm elections. Iran remains defiant despite being hurt militarily and economically.

“Just weeks ago, Trump adopted a strategy of squeezing Iran’s economy while keeping military ⁠conflict at levels too low to squeeze the American economy,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Houthis have shattered Trump’s plan.”

The U.S. administration can’t afford to have the Houthis close ​the strait, driving up energy prices and disrupting global trade.

But at the same time, entering a fight with a foe that has withstood previous attacks by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. would be a dangerous new mission for a U.S. military already ​stretched by the fighting in Iran.

Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, phoned Trump on Thursday and asked for U.S. military help fighting the Houthis, three sources told Reuters. He was told Washington would not intervene directly for now but would help with intelligence, the sources said.

Trump confirmed on Saturday that he had spoken to the crown prince, and said the Houthis had also phoned his administration and asked for Washington not to become directly involved in the conflict, read the report.

A senior Trump administration official declined to address specific questions, but said ​the U.S. is focused on national security interests such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea “while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges”.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis did not respond ​to a request for comment. Iran’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday that the Yemen conflict could not be solved by blockade or military action against the Houthis and called for dialogue, without addressing Iran’s own role.

Iran responded to ‌U.S. and Israeli ⁠attacks earlier this year by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet to the Gulf through which around a fifth of global oil supplies flowed before the war.

If the Houthis close the Bab el-Mandeb, that would deal another economic blow, constraining another 7% of global petroleum supplies and about 12% of global trade.

“This was always the worst-case scenario, that the Iranians exert control not only of Strait of Hormuz but Bab el-Mandeb, two of the leading energy choke points in the world,” said David Schenker, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during Trump’s first term and is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.

“It’s an enormous amount of leverage that [the Iranians] have in hand.”

Analysts and former officials say Trump ​now faces a choice: devote U.S. forces and scarce ​air-defense munitions to pushing back the Houthis, or leave ⁠Saudi Arabia and its allies, a Yemeni government based in the south, to confront them alone.

The Houthis seized Yemen’s capital 12 years ago, and a Saudi-led military intervention has failed to dislodge them since.

Taking on the Houthis would effectively end a deal Trump struck last year in which the U.S. would stop bombing the group in exchange for a halt to strikes ​on Red Sea shipping. That would be likely to expose U.S. forces to missile attacks from Yemen.

It would also be another burden for the U.S. ​military.

U.S. officials say a fight with ⁠the Houthis could require significant naval and aerial resources and divert U.S. intelligence assets, given the need to pinpoint Houthi positions that have changed since last year.

If U.S. Navy vessels and aircraft have to start shooting down Houthi drones and missiles, it could also worsen diminished stockpiles of U.S. munitions and air-defense interceptors.

The senior administration official denied that the U.S. was concerned about its resources being stretched. “The United States Military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of the Commander-in-Chief’s strategic goals and beyond,” ⁠the official said.

Tim ​Lenderking, who served as U.S. special envoy on Yemen under former President Joe Biden and is now a principal at law firm Squire Patton ​Boggs, said that with Trump signaling an unwillingness to get directly involved militarily against the Houthis, the U.S. needs to do more to share intelligence with the Saudis for their air campaign and step up diplomatic and material support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

“This administration came in asking the question, ‘What can ​Yemen do for us?’” Lenderking said during a webcast sponsored by the Middle East Institute think-tank in Washington. “Well, Yemen can spoil our day.”

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Vance says Iran must cut enrichment to end war

Vance said the US remained open to an agreement but would require concrete Iranian nuclear concessions.

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US Vice President JD Vance said in an exclusive interview with Reuters that Iran ​must make a “meaningful” reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy US demands and end the countries’ seven-month war, even as Washington was unsure how ‌Tehran makes decisions in negotiations.

Vance, a longtime skeptic of US involvement in foreign wars, has taken a leading role in negotiating a settlement to the conflict and brokered a provisional peace agreement in June that quickly fell apart. The war has jolted global energy markets and become a political liability for President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans ahead of November midterm elections, Reuters reported.

Speaking on Monday after a campaign trip in Alaska, Vance said ​any agreement would require Iran to reduce its nuclear enrichment capacity, rather than offer assurances of future nuclear drawdowns.

“If you don’t want a nuclear weapon, then why ​do you need 60% enriched fuel? And if you want to show commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, don’t build highly enriched ⁠fuel. That’s a very basic threshold issue,” Vance said.

“I think if they want to show a commitment to not building a nuclear weapon, they would do something meaningful on their ​enrichment capacity.”

Iran and the US have exchanged proposals in recent weeks aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route. Trump rejected Tehran’s ​latest offer and has warned that military operations could intensify after the midterms.

Vance said the US remained open to an agreement but would require concrete Iranian nuclear concessions.

“We’re not going to trade words for actions,” Vance said.

UNCLEAR HOW IRAN MAKES DECISIONS: VANCE

Complicating matters, Vance said Washington is uncertain who makes decisions in Tehran.

Vance said the US was in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. But ​it was unclear how much authority they wield within Iran’s power structure, he said, after joint US-Israeli strikes at the start of the war killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“One ​of the things we picked up on is it’s not totally clear how their country makes decisions,” Vance said. Separately, Trump said on Tuesday his “biggest problem” is no one knows who is running Iran.

Iran’s ‌Foreign Ministry ⁠spokesperson said on Sunday that US officials are well aware of who their Iranian counterparts are and how Iran’s decision-making system works.

“The problem is actually the opposite: it lies in the contradictory positions and mixed messaging from US officials,” Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference.

Vance told Reuters he has held personal conversations with field commanders to gauge battlefield conditions. He dismissed concerns over critical munitions shortages and added that while Iranian troops are periodically able to strike commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, they are largely unable to prevent energy exports through ​the waterway.

Vance declined to say if he ​was leading peace talks, though he is ⁠frequently cited as the White House’s top negotiator.

“We’re certainly involved,” he said. “Ultimately, the president of the United States is driving things.”

The war — and its $3 billion monthly price tag — has become a key issue on the campaign trail. Higher energy prices have put Trump and Republicans on the ​defensive in competitive states that will decide control of Congress.

Vance has sought to temper criticism of Trump’s handling of the conflict, telling ​voters they should not ⁠let that issue keep them from backing Republicans in next month’s elections.

In Alaska, Vance rallied for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who is locked in a tight reelection battle with Democratic challenger Mary Peltola. Trump carried Alaska by 13 percentage points in 2024, but rising everyday costs have put the state in play.

Before speaking with Reuters, Vance focused much of his speech on affordability concerns, especially around ⁠energy. Alaska’s remote ​locale makes consumer goods more expensive, and energy production is a key industry.

Rally attendees roared when Sullivan nearly ​introduced Vance as the president of the US, rather than the vice president. Vance is seen as a leading Republican contender to succeed Trump in the White House.

Vance told Reuters afterward that he had not decided whether to ​seek the presidency in 2028.

“I’m inherently a procrastinator,” he said. “I really haven’t thought about it much.”

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▶️Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan activate Mecca defense pact

The three countries said the measures would be implemented under approved arrangements and in accordance with the national laws of each country.

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Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have agreed to immediately implement their collective defence commitments, including the rapid deployment of agreed military forces and capabilities to Saudi Arabia.

The decision was reached on Monday during an emergency meeting of the Mecca Defence Alliance in Riyadh, according to a joint statement issued by Pakistan’s foreign ministry.

The three countries said the measures would be implemented under approved arrangements and in accordance with the national laws of each country.

Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman said the meeting reaffirmed the three countries’ “solidarity and unity” in responding to what he described as attacks against Saudi Arabia and Islamic holy sites.

The move follows a reported attack on a power distribution station in Medina. The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group said the attack targeted a facility supplying electricity to the Prophet’s Mosque, one of Islam’s holiest sites.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in August. Under the pact, an armed attack against one of the three members is considered an attack against all.

The agreement initially provided few details on the specific military commitments or defence obligations of each country.

The latest announcement marks a move from the framework of the agreement towards its practical implementation, with the three countries now agreeing to put arrangements for the deployment of military capabilities into effect.

 

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Trump picks John Coale as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs

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US President Donald Trump said on Sunday ​that lawyer and current Belarus envoy ‌John Coale, who has been credited with the release of hundreds of prisoners, ​would be his special presidential envoy ​for hostage affairs.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned ⁠15 prisoners last month after ​talks with Coale, who has been talking ​to Minsk for more than a year, Reuters reported.

“John has already secured the return of over 65 ​Americans and Allied Citizens from ​Belarus over the last year, and negotiated the ‌release ⁠of more than 800 political prisoners from multiple countries in Eastern Europe,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth ​Social.

Coale will ​replace ⁠Adam Boehler, who Trump said had brought back 196 hostages. ​Boehler, who in August helped ​to secure ⁠the release of a former American marine from Russia, will continue to ⁠assist ​in other matters as ​a senior adviser, Trump added.

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